galaxy flyer

I was told that by Kirk Brimmer, Solo, 73-74. Be ready to duck. He was requaling in the Hun when I was a student in TUS.


GF

PowderFinger

A friend of mine started in a Mooney.
Ended up with a TBM that ended up in a ball on the side of a runway.
Bought another TBM.
Ended up with a Phenom ... That didn't end well.
I wish he had stopped at the Mooney.

November Seven

I was just thinking about from a purely statistical (empirical) standpoint. Here's a sobering quote:

Source: Road Crash Statistics


Depends on whether we are talking Absolute Value or Relative Value. But, I get your point. When you combine risk factors the numbers are nowhere near comparable. Driving starts to look like statistical Russian Roulette. But, again, I get your point for the smaller sample size relative references. I had not referenced the differential between mere Chance and Probability. So, maybe I should have said that the Probability drops significantly.

FWIW, someone just tried to kill me today on the road. Just made a lane change directly out in front of me with less than 2 feet to spare and kept coming - never bothered looking. If I did not have ample room on the left shoulder to use as a buffer to that move, there would have been a collision because there was no room or time for me to brake hard enough to avoid.

TCAS for all drivers. I'm just kidding.

However, I do favor more collision avoidance automotive technology in vehicles going forward. And, I favor a real Driver's Test at the DMV that tests for skill and knowledge, as opposed to the mere reference sample IQ test that it is today in most states. Watching people, while standing in line for an hour, take a driver's test 4 times before passing is disheartening to say the least, because you know that you now have to share the road with that driver. Very scary stuff.

November Seven

Sorry to hear. Hopefully, there will be something for others to learn from the NTSB reports that came out. I'm just grasping at straws here, but maybe it might have been possible for your friend to have started Private and Instrument in the Mooney, then hung out there for 300 hours or so before stepping up to the TBM for another 300 hours or so, and then to a larger and more complex turboprop twin for the next 2,000-3,000 hours building time in something that prepares him for the Phenom?

I once knew a pilot (a very long time ago) who went from a C-182 Trainer in which he obtained all his basic ratings. He flew that for about 250 hours honing his IFR/IMC skills. From there, he stepped up to a Piper PA-31 Navajo that he flew with AmeriFlight. I was working at AmeriFlight at the time trying to get through school. He flew that PA-31 for 3 years until upgrading to a King Air 100. He put on about 1,000 hours in that until upgrading again to a Lear 35A. I don't know how long he remained with AmeriFlight after that, but I later learned that he was working the right seat of a Boeing 737. He's now a 777 Captain and has a five day work week.

I used to fly with him from KOAK-KBUR-KOAK before the Ks were added. The night departure on Friday, was cool. However, I remember those early morning approaches flying down into Bay Area fog. We'd break out like clockwork underneath and either 27R or 27L was always sitting right there on cue. This was before the heading change to 28R/28L, of course. It was fun flying with him - an experience I'll never forget.

2StgTurbine

Even if that situation did result in a crash, that does not mean you would have died, so you can't use that to prove your point that a nonprofessional flying alone in a VLJ is safer than driving.

November Seven

I think you can be a safe, competent, risk averse, level headed VLJ driver who does not fly professionally. I don't think the skies were limited to only professional pilots. I think the approach to Training and Time Building is the key, coupled with a personal commitment to adhere to a level of personal standards that go well beyond that of the FAA, Insurance Companies and even some Part 135 operators.

Just witnessed a rear end on the freeway this morning, yet again. A chronic tailgater flew directly into the back of another vehicle, violating my State's Vehicle Code in the process. The absolute value of collisions among vehicles relative to the absolute value of aircraft accidents (both air and ground combined) are not even remotely comparable. I won't even try to argue that. The statistical probability (I'm talking real Mathematics, as opposed to personal opinion) for being in an aircraft accident (both ground and air combined) are astronomically different. Again, I won't argue them.

About 1:1,200,000 for an airplane crash. About 1:4,400 for a car crash. That's a 272% increase in Probability. Mathematically speaking, void of any real meaningful comparison. What's more is that it is actually getting worse on the roads and increasingly better in the air. So, we can expect the differential in P(x)/P(y) to increase with T(time), as more DMV offices across the country continue to call their Driver's Test a valid test of knowledge as opposed to the IQ test that it is.

I just want to be safe in the sky, reducing risk wherever and whenever I can. If I need to train like a Professional in order to accomplish that level of competence, then so be it. I'm willing to do what it takes to reach competence and then to maintain it for the next 20-25 years. Then, I'll switch over the NetJets and let them fly me around like an old geezer. Come on, laugh - it was funny.

Seriously, thank you for your input!

2StgTurbine

I am not trying to dissuade you from flying, but I do think it is important not to fool yourself into thinking that flying a VLJ by yourself is safer than driving.

You have too little experience to really understand the risks. You seem to think that if you develop your own flight training and personal growth program, you will beat the odds. Great training & a professional attitude are great, but they aren't silver bullets. It is the equivalent of someone saying, "I'll try harder." Do you really think you are the first one to want to safely operate a VLJ by yourself? There is an entire industry centered around training owner/operators of turbine aircraft.

Most owners don't crash because they didn't get enough time practicing single engine approaches, they crash because of their poor decision making & threat recognition skills. You can't create a syllabus that will teach those skills in a short time period. They take a lifetime to develop. The closest thing you can do is severely restrict yourself. That could mean limiting yourself to marginal VFR weather & limiting the amount of time you can be awake & still fly.

Odds are you won't be any safer than your average nonprofessional turbine pilot. That isn't a dig, it is just reality. If your primary goal is to fly your own jet, then do it, but don't fool yourself into thinking you can make it as safe as any other option. If safety is your goal, then the industry has already figured out that 2 well-trained pilots with a good amount of experience is your best option. No amount of studying or training is going to make up for that.

Airbum

2StgTurbine, I think you have warned him as best as anyone can.

November Seven

Roger That.