NEDude

Well, the deregulation is still in play. Free trade agreements are still in place. Contract pilots are increasing, not decreasing. The Gulf carriers are still flying half empty wide bodies around the world. Yet even mainlineAF admits that "...our wages have gone up and started to be where they should". So if those things are still in play, but pay is going up, the most logical conclusion would be those factors played a much smaller role in hard times than 9/11 and the economic downturn.

T28driver

The most logical conclusion would be that those factors are still a negative influence on the US airline industry. Can we agree on that?

NEDude

For that to be true you would have to argue that the loss of free trade treaties would be beneficial to travel and the global economy. You would have to argue that U.S. airlines have received no benefit from treaties such as Open Skies (e.g. Delta's access to Heathrow vs. being stuck at Gatwick). You would have to argue that it would be beneficial to the profession to have thousands of experienced pilots lose their overseas contracts and flood the unemployment lines in the States. Clearly it would be absurd to make those arguments. So no, we cannot agree on that. At best or worst, it is a double edged sword.

Edit:
The simple fact is that a healthy economy and high demand for travel has by far the greatest impact on the positive health of the airline industry and the piloting profession. Weak economies and shrinking demand for travel is by far the greatest factor in creating a poor airline industry and piloting profession. To argue that any other factor plays anything more than a tiny fraction of a role in the industry and profession is just plain silly and ignores the history that has been prevalent since the de-regulation of the industry nearly 40 years go. A few dozen American pilots flying 787s for Norwegian will have ZERO impact on the American piloting profession, absolutely none. And you are foolish if you believe otherwise.

T28driver

This isn't a platonic ideal world where everything is puppydogs and unicorns. It's a merciless business with razor thin profit margins that is the closest thing to a zero sum game in all of transportation. Why would I EVER want the US airlines competing on a level playing field with the rest of the world? I lived the aftermath of that failed experiment in the US shipping industry.

The US airlines absolutely get benefits from these treaties. That does not change the fact that Norwegian, the ME3, WOW and other potential new entrants to carrying passengers internationally from the US is detrimental to the US carriers. Nobody said it had to be fair on both sides.

I can also state that a ready and available, (mostly) non-union pilot supply that is willing to give those airlines less expensive labor is a threat to the status quo here in the USA.

These arguments are not mutually exclusive in the way you want them to be, nor am I (or many of the other people on here) being hypocrites when we make these arguments.

T28driver

Greatest factor? Sure. I'll give you that. Only major factor? Not a chance.

Wanna talk fuel prices? How about Frank Lorenzo and the Eastern/Continental merger? The rise of Code Sharing? REGIONAL JETS!!!!!!! I can go on.

Individual pilots going to Norwegian will have zero effect on the industry as a whole, you are correct. The long term success or failure of Norwegian and the others will absolutely have an effect on this industry. You are being naive if you believe otherwise.

Hereby Notify!
(You worked in China, right?)

METO Guido

Hey Shine Box, you grasping any of this?

NEDude

Fuel prices are directly tied to economic health, so therefore I would include them when talking about the overall economic climate.

ALPA's gross miscalculations in the early 1990s directly led to the growth of RJs at regional airlines, by refusing to discuss even allowing them at mainline carriers and insisting they be flown by poorly paid pilots on substandard contracts.

Frank Lorenzo took advantage of U.S. bankruptcy laws and corporate laws to impose subpar working conditions. The bankruptcy laws are again a double edged sword - they allow courts and management to impose some very poor working conditions, but they also allow companies to survive lean times and turn into to companies that are thriving and greatly improving working conditions. Had America West, American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, USAirways and United not had U.S. Chapter 11 available to them, the industry today would be very different. Sometimes you do have to take the good with the bad.

Of course the long term success or failure of Norwegian will have an effect on the industry. The long term success of Southwest has had a major impact on the industry too, and remember for many years they were paid significantly less than their peers at legacy airlines. The long term success or failure of Delta, United, Lufthansa, ANA, easyJet, Spirit, British Airways, Scoot, and others will all have an impact on the industry as well. Singling out one airline, which is doing what several others have been doing for decades (despite what ALPAs false and misleading propaganda videos are saying), and attributing any and all future potential failings or hardships in the industry on them is being naive.

NEDude

You claim the world is not puppydogs and unicorns. Yet two sentences later you ask: "Why would I EVER want the US airlines competing on a level playing field with the rest of the world?", and later state "Nobody said it had to be fair on both sides." It sounds to me you wish to live in a world where U.S. airlines have total access to the global market, while the U.S. market is cutoff from the rest of the world. Since such a world is a complete fantasy, why not include your unicorns in it as well?

Oh, and just FYI, most pilots at Norwegian, and WOW Air, are union members.

Denti

Norwegian is the least of your worries. Really. Consider Lufthansa backing their own low cost brand, that currently operates with 8 different AOCs, each of which has complete and free access to the US if they ever want to use it. Currently they fly just 7 A330s, but that is going to roughly double next year and more the year after. All flown by either a ryan-air like contractor employment model at Brussel Airlines, or non-unionized extremely lowly paid (max captain pay per year is 109.000€) pilots employed by a joint venture of Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines.

Same with Level, an extremly lowcost brand from IAG (which owns British Airways, Iberia and Air Lingus).

The real risk is the financial and operational might of the Legacy carriers with extremely low paid employees. They do have a cost advantage you cannot match, neither can the legacy mainline carriers themselves, which leads to increased pressure on their conditions. Lufthansa mainline pilots just at the moment run a ballot to lower their T&Cs by 15% and completely abolish their scope clause, and yes it will go in favor of that proposal.

There is no pilot shortage in Europe. Willy Walsh, CEO of IAG just commented on that as well, in their brand Air Lingus they received over 3000 quality applications for 100 jobs. And they will start flying the north atlantic in A321LR in 2019 as well.

However, you cannot call those carriers flag of convenience carriers, becaused from their home country. They do have every right to operate into the US under the current open sky agreement, and those lower or lowest cost carriers will increasingly do. Especially with the nice and shiny new 737Max and A320NEO family, which allows transatlantic flights at nearly half the cost of a widebody jet per seat.

T28driver

NED, Denti, I gotta take a break from this refreshing debate and go fly. Back soon. Promise.