As someone who has been in this business for 32 years, let me say that in that time I have never, repeat NEVER, seen a pilot shortage. This, despite numerous prognosticators and expert reports, most of which were self serving. For example, they tend to come from the training industry, or the aircraft manufacturers overly optimistic estimates of aircraft needed.

Flying continues to conjure up romantic career images, even though the reality is far removed from glamorous. The number of inquiries and threads on this site are indicative that the population of pilot's in the pipeline is alive and well, and competition for reasonable employment remains intensely fearce.

Yes, there will be retirements..but they don't crest for a number of years yet. Moreover, the regional airline industry, which was a shadow of it's present size even 20 years ago, now carries nearly 50% of all US domestic traffic! This explosive growth is a double edged sword for those of you in the pipeline.

On the plus side, it's created unprecidented opportunities for low time pilots. American Eagle will let you into the game with only 1000 hours total time....30 years ago you couldn't touch a Cessna 310 (as a commerical pilot for charters, for example) without 3000 TT. On the downside, if you have your eyes set on flying the heavy iron....the majors are under unprecedented cost pressures and so have been, and will continue to, turn over flying in the 70 to 110 seat category to the regionals. To remain profitable, they rely on huge seat numbers to lower their CASM. The unions are already losing this battle. Note that Comair is going to slash their fleet in half...parking many of the CRJ 50 seaters while retaining 70 to 90 seat airplanes. Republic is adding E-190s and flying 100 seats around at 60% of the labor rates of Midwest Airlines. In other words, the mainline carriers will stick to fewer but larger airplanes, and the regionals will fly mid-size airplanes, replacing smaller RJs as traffic rebounds or grows.

A word about reality...it BITES! If you're trying to get into this business, be prepared for strikes, furloughs, bankruptcies, medical issues, mergers and seniority list setbacks THROUGH OUT your career! I have been through each and every one of these issues!!!! There is no such thing as a job for life "or once you get here you got it made". Those cherry days are over, and died with the guys whose career spanned the DC-3, 6, Connie, 707, and 74. They retired after living the dream.

As for the shortage...well, let's look at current requirements shown on Rishworth or Parc. Not unusual to see 1) The applicable type rating. 2) 500 hours PIC in type 3) Last PC within 6 months 4) 3 T/Os and Landings within the last 90 days 5) One to two years international (overwater) experience 6) NO accidents, incidents, or violations 7) not more than 90 days of non flying within the last 12 months or not less than XXX hours the last 12 months. And by the way, here is the training bond to sign...for $15 to 30K if you leave before your contract is up.

Now.....the only reason they can do that is because there are enough guys out there who meet those requirements, and in 32 years of professional flying I have NEVER seen these sorts of comprehensive requirements before. Yes, there have been requirements, but not as exhaustive and incontrovertable as these.

None of this is meant to discourage any of you...only to try to dispence with the notorious "pilot shortage myth."

 

Hi!

Also pilot shortage in the ME (moreso than in Asia, overall) and Africa. Yes, the shortage is here, and it will slowly be coming to America. The ONLY reason the shortage is not worse in Asia/ME/Africa is that many Americans are over there, filling the gap, already.

Crap work rules? Mine were 15 hour MAX duty day. 11 hours MINIMUM rest. If our duty day was 14.X hours, 16 hours rest. Max 160 DUTY hours in a 28 day period, which was the limiting factor (Europe is 190 Duty hrs).

Many places already do 0 time FOs, but the numbers they are able to train per year are very low compared to the spots they are expected before. As you can see posted above, China may soon be hiring foreign FOs. They NEVER have before, only Capts.

India is soon to pass China as the fastest growing economy.

 

I should clarify my previous post as follows: there is no pilot shortage of well qualified US pilots. Unlike most of the world, the US has enjoyed economic development on a scale that allowed the general aviation sector to blossom, and that has produced a large number of pilots through the civilian ranks. In fact, many foriegn students come to the US because of the ready availability of flight training at relatively reasonable costs. Some US pilots would accept a position overseas, and some have been able to do so.

It is also true that there are a number of nations in which US pilots are not desired...which is to say "due to the politics of the USA, you are not welcome here." In these instances you may find requirements for a European license only. It is also true, that some US pilots who have been permited to work for foriegn carriers in countries which allow this, have found themselves living in an environment which they describe as occassionaly hostile or even dangerous. And of course, there are those carriers or those countries where most of us would rather not fly.

It is interesting to note that there is a growing population of pilots in the US that are foriegn nationals, and that many of these individuals stay in the US and work for 121 regional carriers, often from countries where a US citizen is not allowed to work and fly! At one large regional carrier I'm acquainted with, I would guess that approximately 15 to 20% of their new hires are not US citizens. I have no problem with diversity or the US as a melting pot, however, there are many furloughed and unemployed US pilots who would not be granted the same consideration in certain other countries.

Where ab initio cadets are concerned, most of these programs were started in countries where the indeginous general aviation and the military provide limited opportunity, leaving the country with a limited supply of domestic pilots. Here you may find the contract employee, often a direct entry level captain, working with a native low time ab initio pilot graduate. The program assumes that once the native pilot has the experience he'll move to the left seat and there will no longer be a need for an outside contract captain. Some of these contract captains will tell you that the feel they are the target of an underlying sense of resentment in these instances...or that they are tollerated. Others have very pleasant experiences, although I'm not sure how many would call it a stable career. There will always be the need for contract crews, but they may have to jump around from employer to employer every several years.

 

World English Dictionary
shortage (ˈʃɔːtɪdʒ)

— n
a deficiency or lack in the amount needed, expected, or due; deficit

So, there's a certain number of pilots needed worldwide. If there is a shortage, then there must not be enough pilots to fill those jobs (or enough qualified pilots). Perhaps this suggests that there is a deficit in the ratio of pilotsilot jobs. There is a deficiency in the quality and number of available pilots to fill those "numerous" jobs.

I don't think this can be said. It seems like there are thousands of regional FO's with 3000 total and an ATP. These pilots can be trained to fly anything. And none of them make 50k. Everyone's got a price, and if EK has a "shortage," than the price isn't high enough. Unfortunately, neither they nor I can see a reason to offer more. Thus, they do not have a shortage. They will have no trouble hiring as many as they need.

I don't normally post so negative; so I'd like to say that at least there have been some opportunities lately. And that's all you can really ask for these days. I want (eventually) 6 figures, bay area or Hawaii base, 15 days off, and free travel. Is that too much to ask? . . . didn't seem like it when I started in this racket. Now? it might be

 

that's "pilots : pilot jobs"

and, I guess it came out negative anyway. oh well.

 

Scumby... do you live in China? Do you work for a Chinese Carrier? Visiting as a crwemember on a layover or in and out does not count as a resident in China.

I have many friends in various cities in China from Beijing to Shangnai to Sheku to name a few. They enjoy the expat life. The carriers they fly with honor the terms and conditions of their contract too. Now granted they did comment on the paperwork, and time lnes are a bit long. But that' to be expected in some foreign lands.

So Scumby... do share some of your personal experiences whil you lived and worked for a Chinese carrer... I'm all eyes.

 

Who is hiring foreign nationals and what country is producing these folks? I have definitely heard some accents over the radio and it wasn't just a Sioux callsign.

You can just say "allegedly so and so" and you'll be fine.

 

Interesting that this morning I got an email from VOR holdings seeking A320 captains in China for an after tax salary of $220,000. This is up significantly from what has been offered in the past.

 

Block30, I'd rather not get into "which countries" because I don't want to start any ill will.....many pilots at the regionals know exactly what I'm talking about. Again, I have no problem with the US being a melting pot...and that's exactly what built this country. But, like fair trade, fair is fair.

 

Ya me too. But the requirements are high. If one has those requirements, he/she would already have a job, as a captain, who is gonna leave their ex: 777 capt gig to go work for China Air Cargo...in China.