Shortage of Pilots - Impact on Part 91/135 Op
 

1. Aircraft seller Colibri Aircraft says 98,000 new private plane pilots are needed between now and 2038
2. The shortage is down to major commercial airlines offering high salaries and steady work
3. Before, private jet owners had a wide roster of pilots to choose from and could afford to be picky
4. Experts say it has now switched and pilots are turning away the work
5. It is down to a wider shortage in the number of commercial and private pilots
6. Boeing previously estimated the world needed 800,000 pilots over the next 20 years to keep up with demand for travel

Full article below:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/t...uper-rich.html

Questions/Discussion:

1. Impact on aircraft sales as described
2. Impact on wage pressure in Part 91 world vs. Part 135 world
3. Growth potential for business jet ops

Interesting times and unprecedented in terms of leverage shifting from employers to employees.

That article had a bit of a slant to it....

What would you point to that makes it slanted?

A world wide recession would probably minimize some of the shortfall...less demand but the aging of the pilot fleet will continue regardless of recessions or not.

Would a lessening of demand of pilots for new planes, retiring pilots at 121 operations match the reduction in pilots positions that would result in a recession?

Hard to say but some lessening of the demand for pilots would occur.

If there are other variables they left out I'd be interested to hear your view.

I think they simply took some numbers/projections from companies that are in the know for what is being bought/sold/retired from their airline/Part 135 customers.

As far as indicators the shortage is occurring:

Some Part 135 ops are offering "part-time" positions for pilots, one rotation a month versus the standard 2...that wouldn't be happening unless normal schedules weren't enough of a lure to get pilots to be "semi-retired"

The first signs of a shortage are the recent (18-24 months) of increase in regional pay + bonuses. If there wasn't a shortage regional FOs would still be making sub $20K salary and they aren't.

SWA, Delta, JB are setting up aviation tracks for zero to hero flight training...never been done before in the US.

Regionals asking for and getting relief on the 1500 ATP hr rules.

Past 9 yrs seat capacity has been reduced on RJs by 4.5%.
Mainline has increased 14.5%

It won't happen overnight but regionals will feel it first as evidenced above and that means the Part 135/91 folks will be feeling it also.

The only relief valve for these two groups are the increased pool of retired 121 drivers...that is if you can entice them with enough money to lure them from the golf course, fishing pond, i.e. part-time jobs.

Just my $.02

I meant that the article a few times referenced the 1500 hour rule as a cause, rather than the low salaries that regionals were unwilling to raise until recently. The shortage isn't caused by the "daunting " task of reaching 1500 hours, but by the failure of the airlines to properly pay new pilots, and then after the 1500 hour rule, their unwillingness to change said pay rates.

Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.

Got it...yes the lack of pay/enticement to enter the career field has been an obstacle for many years...what it did was bring the vast majority of people to the field who really wanted to fly. If they paid $200K there would be no shortage but how many people would really find the career rewarding other than financially.

It will be interesting to see as the pay goes up in the coming years how many will be drawn to that versus a love of aviation...one can't feed a family on "Love of aviation" however.

Thanks for the clarification. Good point.

? You're going to have to explain that in context to what I wrote rather than with a link.

The 1500 hour rule has indeed been a major factor in the pilot shortage. So has low pay. And global market expansion. And mass retirements, etc.

Very EU-centric article where pay for charter/corporate is very low by comparison to the US and operators have typically been pretty casual about crews. In the US, pay for experienced pilots has risen dramatically which has put pressure on bottom-feeding 135 operators. I’ve seen charter operators with 900 hour jet F/Os.

GF

Corporate and charter outfits have two choices: actually pay market rate for running or chartering a plane or send your bottom-feeding executives commercial ... either way the whole industry benefits.

Private ops has been far too subsidized for far too long between tax preferences, long term glut of available crews, favorable regulatory oversight.