I’ve Already Decided
 

Yes, I realize this is a first time post. It is a first time post because, under my real screen name, it would be fairly easy to identify me and I am concerned about retaliation from the company....yes, I have grown to trust them that little.

I don’ t have to see this AIP / TA / whatever you want to call it to know that I will be a solid NO vote. The reason for this is that this is absolutely NOT the best this company can do. How do I know that? I know that because that’s not how negotiations work; something is ALWAYS held in reserve.

This company has more money / work rules held in reserve for the possibility of it not passing. They know that there is a quantifiable cost for any percentage point over 51% by which this thing would ratify. That is all they want and need....51%. That is all they’ve offered. I want more than that! I can assure you, this management group didn’t just decide overnight - out of the goodness of their benevolent hearts - to capitulate and give us a contract for Christmas. For some reason, known only to them, they need to get this done sooner rather than later. Do not fall for it, my brothers, YOU have the leverage!!! They don’t want to get this matter put to bed, they NEED to get this matter put to bed to make them even MORE money.

PBS is a concession. Period. There are no two ways about it. The only reason DL, UA, etc. have PBS today is because they gave it as a concession during bankruptcy.

Additionally, ALPA National wants to get this done so they can quit devoting time and resources to the process and move down the road and get ready for contract openers at DL, UA, etc., so their spin machine is going to be in full motion mixing up the Kool-Aid for us.

Don’t drink it, kids, it’s poison!!!

Do not fall for the ALPA spin and the Indigo trap. Do not drink the Kool-Aid. Stand strong, brothers, and hold the line. THERE IS MORE MONEY AND THEIR ARE MORE BENEFICIAL WORK RULES LEFT IN THAT WHEELBARROW!!!

We haven’t even seen the proposal yet. Relax.

That’s the point - I don’t have to see it.

A) It contains PBS.
B) There is more economic benefit left in the kitty for them to give us.

You guys got an AIP? That is good news, hoping for the best :)

So essentially you are shooting down the very attractive gal hitting on you at the bar because you are expecting a perfect 10 to walk through door. At the VERY least give the 9.5 a chance. Then if you don’t like her, sure shut her down. Ha ha
In all seriousness let’s wait and see what we get, at this point I don’t think they would be putting something out to vote that would be a waste of time.

Again....what IF we vote it down?
The company OBVIOUSLY is on the ropes....
Turn about is fair play go for WAY BEYOND the moon!

100000% agree!!! But the problem is...
There’s lot on here and on the line that talk all this big **** how they won’t settle and they will be the first to click yes the minute the vote opens. Roll overs 100%. They cant get past the money to realize there’s more to be had if we stand our ground. The company didn’t out of no where decide they NEED TO GET THIS DONE!!! They are in a bind. And y’all are gonna take the first bait they put in the water? SELL OUTS! I know this will pass bc of gutless pilots who are not willing to run the whole marathon. This is not the best them greedy bastards can do. They’ve planned this from the get go. I am a 100% no, no matter what. Why? Bc the ball is our court FINALLY! They need pilots. Pilots aren’t coming. Brand new planes are being parked(spares... lmao, who believes that?) now is the time to demand your worth. We have these guys over a barrel. Do to them what they’ve done to us. They want a contract by Jan 2019? They shoulda wanted that 2 yrs ago and it woulda been done but they decided to STEAL our money for over 2 yrs. don’t sell out. If we vote no they will be right back at the table just like weve been for 2 1/2 yrs. this is a terrible contract from just the bits I’ve heard. Buyers remorse is coming if you vote this in. And you will... Losers as somebody said in another thread is the perfect name. Y’all want to call the new guys wounds but yes votes are ****ing losers.

I agree that regardless what this contract looks like, if we vote it down the following deal will be sweeter.

That said, I think this idea of voting it down period just to get more is foolish.

Don’t get me wrong, I refuse to settle. I’ve voted on 2 contracts in my career and both times I was a proud NO!

I have definitely not made up my mind either way, and I have high expectations given that PBS is a concession that’s been made. IF my expectations are met (and I believe they’re completely reasonable) then I will gladly vote yes. If not, then I’ll get to cast my 3rd NO vote of my career.

I think openly discussing the potential pitfalls of PBS is an excellent idea and I have been reading up in these forums to gain other perspectives on what may very well bite us in our butts if we let it. I had PBS at my previous regional and I hated it compared to what we have at Frontier.

I have a list of things already that I will be on the lookout for (like unstacking) and if not clearly addressed to my liking I’ll be a solid NO.

My point is we should all be educated and know what it is we personally expect in a contract. If it meets your expectations then what do you gain by voting no? A little bit more in 6 months to 2 years time. What about what’s lost in the meantime?

If it doesn’t meet your expectations then you should vote no. As of now, NO ONE knows if it meets your expectations because it’s all speculation.

Educate yourself. Keep an open mind. Don’t vote out of fear. Don’t be bought by a big $igning bonu$ and know what it is YOU expect to see.

The only reason why this is even going to a vote is bc the union has done the best they can do. And they have worked extremely hard and I’d like to shake everyone of their hands and thank them for their service to us. But, they need our help. They’ve done the best they can do up to this point, now they need our help. They can’t do anymore without the pilot group forcing them to. It’s part of the process. Help the union help us. If ever was a time to grow a pair in your life, now is the time. I’ve said my peace. Y’all may go and roll over and vote yes now bc your gutless. End of rant and I thank each and every one of you for reading this. Now if you will, please post how awesome the consession’s on our new contract are acceptable because you have no self respect.

Are we talking an "aviation" 9.5, or a regular 9.5?

Huge difference btw an “airport” 10 and and walking down the street 10. Kinda how biff see’s this airbus pilot group versus real (same) airbus pilot groups.

Spoiler alert. This group of our union brothers isn’t going to send anything to a vote that won’t pass by at least 80% by their estimation. Our union leadership is so stingy that they won’t even declare they have an AIP yet, only a “framework.” Most unions would have sounded the victory bell, and would have shared the currently inked AIP details with their pilots. Our guys trust this management group SO LITTLE that they’ll only say we’ve made major progress, but “it ain’t over til it’s over.” That distrust of management was the single biggest contributor to my trust in this union leadership. They’re not taking a carrot while getting knived in the back.

I keep reading people talking about this momentum. That perceived momentum is only present because our union has been negotiating and making deals with the company. If they were to cross their arms and say “no” to every new proposal, there would be no momentum. And then they’ll argue that the contract is something the company needs now because “we have them on the ropes,” supposedly because an IPO is imminent; Oh yeah I heard that one before, I think it was the last time they were filed their S1 for their IPO. The company isn’t looking for a 51% vote, they’re gauging the minimum our union will send to membership, because history shows that CBAs that pass union leadership and go to a member vote have a very high pass rate. Our guys standards have only been pushed up as they’ve been wading through the company and NMB bull crap.

The guys negotiating this contract are a staunch bunch. Pay them the respect by waiting for details this week. They’ll be plenty of time for questions. And (if we get that far), there will also be a vote!

It only passes by 80% is because 80% don’t have the endurance to see this through. As I stated earlier, the union has gone as far as they can without our help. At this point it is up to the pilots to pull their weight. Unfortunately, by seein how they jumped all over incentive trips, this concessionary contrat will be voted in... I’m completely ashamed of where I work and I guess where I’ll be workin until I get a call... embarrassed might be a better term. I don’t know but either way, I’ll have this feeling about me when I introduce myself to the cockpit of a different airline I’m commenting on.... dammit, I can’t brlieve this strong force would jump at the first bit of food given too us in 2.5 yrs after they’ve throw **** on us up to this point. I honestly can fathom the willful acceptance of something so substandard. It will be hard to look at another F9 pilot and wonder if they were the gutless pilot that voted this in out of just being scared for another month of negotiations.

There are a lot of good points here. However, its just not right to decide how you are voting already. We don't even have bullet points yet!!! Give me a break. These contracts are complex and have a lot of different elements that effect them.

I understand the argument of not accepting the first deal, I totally get that. But if the deals good enough, you should take it. That being said, I am concerned this deal isn't good enough. But I'm not voting yet.... and neither should you.

The negotiating committee busted their asses for us for two and a half years, you owe it to them to read the TA with an open mind.

Again, like the other rational folks here I withholding my opinion until I see something to have an opinion about.

A $15/hr difference at 80hrs/mo over 7 years = $100,800 (I picked 7 years as a conservative number for a next future contract)

I have no idea what the numbers actually are, but lets just say its $265 top, or $98 over current pay. That same $100,800 would be made in just over 12 months when comparing it to current pay.

This doesn't factor "retro"/"signing bonus" into it lets say its $40,000 more for just that additional year, it would then take 18 months to make that 140,800. So as long as the negotiating time for that extra $15 took less than 18 months then you came out ahead. Of course not factoring in interest.

The point being, there is a time value to money, and there is a dollar value to every work rule. Our NC understands this well, I do not believe that this TA will hit it out of the park. But based on my previous experiences with them, I do feel that they believe it is good enough in terms of how much more we could get relative to how much time would need to be invested. That when factoring in interest of making your money now or only receiving 30/40/50% of it in a bonus check if negotiations were to continue, we would be in a realm of diminishing returns for all the money lost.

A user in the other thread posted that it is JB - 14, that would either put it at 245 or 258 depending on if it factored in JB's red eye override. I have no idea if this number is true, and I wonder where they heard it as not much has leaked with any of this. Due to PBS also being included I will be sad and surprised if the top number is only 245. That is not industry average.

But again I haven't seen anything yet, so I'll just wait to press judgement until I do. Voting no just because you could get more is not rational until we see what we will be offered.

Gary et al, I went back and re-read the other thread. I assumed the numbers posted by another user were the numbers that we were going to be voting on. When in fact, they were just our earlier ask. I apologize for my lack of reading comprehension. I have no idea where the Spirit +2% came from.

Completely my bad. I agree 100% on reading the actual contract before a decision can be made.

Yes!! Exactly this!

I’ve only made two post here. I predicted PBS and that we would have a proposal. Now listen up. From what I’m hearing the proposal is dencent, not great but better than our competitors. PBS was always going to happen, it is way more efficient for the company and not just for our lack of potential lack flexibility but for operational performance and the software involved. Remember that technology has allowed them to eliminate a lot of overhead with its implementation.

So hear me out, read the TA when we get it, I sure will. Please remember that interest rates are going up and wages are going way up nation wide for those that are professionals. (Everyone else in the USA they are not). Eg. Skilled workers are in demand.

I’m thinking that the overall reall inflation will be closer to 5% over the next 5 years. This will become more clear over the next year. Which is why there is a push now.

Please vote on your gut feeling, not on your desire for short term gains.

Thanks Gary for this calculation. I believe this is correct. Again if these numbers are inaccurate then we will vote no. If not, then best to vote it in. One more factor is that United’s pilot contract is coming due some. If I know unions, then pay will go up drastically. We have to consider this when voting. United may not be able to pay but this is what always causes cycles in the industry. I know that at Frontier on the other hand, we will be able to afford such a contact, and if not, a sale will be at hand.

One thing I will add. One thing our company wants is to divide us and not to join us. They want to divide us even with even with the new contact. It’s the Roman circus, give them football games, distract us, and turn us into cattle. So you don’t ever question the leader. Stop watching screens, be companions, we are all self aware, be united,

Written like a true management man. Thanks, but we don’t need your help pumping this proposal. Let us decide.

Everyone keeps saying, wait for the details to decide. The scary thing is that I have had many conversations over the past week and you wouldnt believe how many people have said that they are already voting yes - without those same details.

I have heard statements like “well, let’s just get this one done, and we’ll do better next time” or “im just sick of waiting” or misguided sentiments that voting no is disrespectful to the NC. Rationalization and complete 180’s are running rampant in people who were super hardcore only a couple of weeks ago. Its sad.

From my viewpoint, every single solitary piece of Barry’s plan has worked out just the way he likes it, and all we have done is backtrack. He has beaten us into psychological submission and the proposed dollar signs are just barely big enough to keep us from seeing it.

Im a hard lean NO but i will hear the full story. Just making it known that from private conversations, this thing passed yesterday.

“A hard lean”...WTF does that mean, Dewey Cox?

Totally blows my mind that people are basing yes/no/leaning/etc on information from the WIVES Facebook page. They said Spirit +2% but they also said it wouldn’t include PBS...

I get being mad at the company. But to say you’re a “NO” sight unseen is exactly as stupid as saying you’re a “YES” sight unseen.

Our NC has worked hard and damn well deserves the respect of at least LOOkING at the results of their 2.5 years of effort.

:confused:

Had to look up the Dewey Cox reference, still not sure I get it.

What was posted on the wives facebook page?

I said im waiting to hear the full story, and not making a decision yet. Until that point It seems that a person who would discourage me from having an initial impression and leaning one way or the other, is someone who doesn’t agree with the way I am leaning. But I don’t know enough about you to make that call.

I think we are in agreement??

Sorry I wasn’t singling you out. I just thought the “hard lean” comment was nonsensical, much like the “walk hard” tag line from the movie. It made me laugh.

I dont lean either way at this point so I can’t say I agree or disagree with you. I know that IF certain things are or are not in the TA that will affect my vote. But since we literally have ZERO information from a reliable source I refuse to waste a finite number of precious brain cells trying to make a decision at this point.

Btw, to everybody...hearing from a guy that heard from a guy who is a “reliable source” is NOT a reliable source. Let’s just fly the contract until we get an email that says “F9 ALPA” on it.

Fair enough, and you can believe that I will be flying the contract until day one of whatever passes.

I will disagree on having zero information. PBS is a published fact. I am a “walk hard lean” against this in particular until I see the most iron clad language ever written in the existence of man, and even then I will be wondering how Indigo is going to ignore it and get away with it. Once bitten, twice shy... how about the 3rd, 4th, 1864th time they have thumbed their nose at our “contract”.

Another fact:
”the new contract provides for ALPA's added participation in pairing development and the ALPA Scheduling Committee will construct and control line solutions.”

This sounds like we are on the right track, but far from anything that gives me a solid feeling. “Added participation” is exactly the kind of language Indigo eats for breakfast.

Again, I will hear the full story.

I'm trying to get my head around why it is a pilot group like Delta has what it takes to kick back a TA, but a pilot group like NK doesn't.

If we could understand the difference we might glean answers that would help us once presented with our TA.

It must be partly because ALPA national gives vastly more support to the big carrier?

Is it because their education campaign is better? Do they corral their pilots together more effectively?

Someone once told me that our guys are forced to still go out and fly the line while in Section 6, whereas the Delta and United NC/MEC are released from all flying to do their job for the union. Anyone know if this is true, because that's a huge penalty for us if it is.

Whatever the reasons, there is something amiss that allows companies like Spirit, Allegiant, and Frontier to take advantage of the nonsensical notion that we deserve less. More perplexing is the fact that so many of our pilots accept this as true.

Listen, our unity WAS lacking, but recently it has come together quite impressively. We've done the hard part, we've fought a brutal battle. Fate showed us favor: the landscape changed; the school house is empty, and planes are getting parked. We have won! All that is left to do is walk in, plant the flag, and claim the victory. Why in the name of everything good would we cede anything major at this point?

Don't be afraid of "more time" and "time value of money" etc. Those are scaredy-cat words. The company will be back post-haste with a new TA.

For the first time in forever, we hold the cards. But if human nature is any predictor, we will sell ourselves short because we lack basic courage.

If this TA is brilliant, and every bit what we deserve, then vote it it in. But if you vote yes, even slightly, out of fear you're pathetic!

It’s frightening that people have already decided to vote yes. Especially considering PBS. You have got to be crazy to say such a thing.

Oh dude they're already asking if it's ok to bring their buddies over now that this is "done." These people cannot have been engaged at all throughout this process.

Jesus......

“ Between now and the release of the full TA language and supporting information, you are likely to hear many rumors and much speculation about the terms or impact of the new agreement. We encourage you to wait for solid information presented by the MEC and/or Negotiating Committee. It's critical for members to receive accurate and factual information and to make a decision on the contract as a whole.”

So did everyone in this tread miss this part of the email. I bet you guys all snuck into your parents closet before Christmas to see your presents before they got wrapped.

Just a thought: I wonder if this is true because these smaller carriers have been coming from so far behind?

When you are payed 50% less, you feel a burning need to play catch up. SouthWest voted down a TA in their last negotiations, while they were comfortably making way more money than us. They weren't suffering. They were fighting to raise the bar to the top. It's far easier to vote a TA down from the comfort of your SeaRay while cruising around the lake your beach house is on. Same thing with Delta voting a TA down.

Spirit and Allegiant pilots voted on their TA from their repair shop waiting room while getting the AC serviced on their 1984 Corolla.

I'm not saying that either vote was right or wrong, but circumstances matter.

Delta only hires pilots with at least a 4-year degree.

This exactly! Currently on this very page of APC there are 5 ads to come work here. That looks like company desperation to me. Guys let’s look at it like this. Has the growth happened? Yes. Has the company controlled every aspect of the timing? Yes. Is the company in a bind if we say no? ABSOLUTELY! Would the whole process take another year? Highly doubt it probably only a few months.
Read the thing and if it checks the boxes you need vote, “Yes” if not vote, “No”.
Lastly NO IT IS NOT OK TO HAVE YOUR BUDDIES APPLY YET!

That’s the simple and logical explanation. They were seeking an additional 15% in compensation while already sitting at the top, not seeking 40% to catch up to the rest of the pack. Pilot groups like Delta’s also started a trend of signing shorter duration contracts with early openers, which puts them at an accelerated pace for pattern bargaining. Say what you want about Delta pilots but they are some of the crucial pathfinders for raising pilot pay.

75-80% pass vote, watch.

You have to look at all the junior guys in each seat, who's lives would be unaffected by PBS. They will still fly redeyes and weekends, so FU pay me.

You have to look at the ones within 5 years of retirement who will vote for anything, because waiting even 3 months will cost them more than any gain we may achieve. So whatever pay me.

You have to look at all the guys who flew INC this summer, who will drop to their knees and suckle anything with a dollar sign the company gives them. So yes daddy, please pay me.

You'll need to look at the bottom voting 400, because they've been living hand to mouth on 70 hours at ridiculously low wages trying to feed their families. Good luck explaining to the wife why you are turning down a $65,000 raise because a sentence in the scheduling language has the words "whenever possible" in it. Sorry man, pay me.

Then you'll have the guys who will look at a $75M ratification bonus and see a new Tesla in the driveway. Those guys were yes voters all along, no matter what.

Lots and lots of defacto yes voters. Getting them to change their minds is going to be a monumental challenge. I applaud those chanting NO this soon, but I think you may be preaching to empty pews.

:D:D:D........