I assume captains moving on to the big 3? FOs still need TPIC I’m guessing before they move on

Pretty much the exact opposite of that

Most attrition is junior FOs

I concur. Opposite.

It’s 2022 not 2012

Regional FOs are moving on to the big 3 in today's hiring climate.

Even regional FOs with no TPIC are getting picked up at the legacies. ULCC FOs with A320 or B737 time are an even hotter commodity. It’s a strange situation with seniority. ULCC CAs who aren’t on reserve have too much to lose to start over again somewhere new as a first year FO on reserve making considerably less than where they are. If they are young enough, and there are no black swans, no company bankruptcies, etc., they will PROBABLY make that up within 6-7 years, but that’s only a probably and their relative seniority will be in the crapper for a long time too.

It’s the exact opposite of the regionals where they don’t have enough CAs and senior FOs are departing the fix before upgrade. They aren’t upgrading because the FOs don’t have the 121 hours to do it. The ULCCs aren’t upgrading because they don’t have enough FOs for the CAs they have and they lose more every day.

These be strange times…

F9 management, under direct orders from ownership, will NEVER admit our pay and benefits package needs to be equal to the big 4 in order to grow……..

Through common core math or something they actually believe we have parity with DL pay rates. Or at least BL tries to tell us as much.

and that’s why we will never grow…….
lose as many or more than we can hire

In that case, do you guys still have upgrades?
It seems like if you're losing more pilots than you're hiring, and they're all FOs, there would be an imbalance of CA/FO ratios and that downgrades would eventually start to happen.