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Andy 04-21-2022 03:25 PM


Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 3410035)
American Airlines lost 1.64 Billion. 18 Million / day.

Ouch

American also forecast to be profitable in Q2.
They have $15.5B in liquidity. Not close to bankruptcy.

Adjusting for size, AMR and UAL losses would be equivalent to F9 losing ~$75M in Q1.

Aero1900 04-21-2022 08:17 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3410102)
American also forecast to be profitable in Q2.
They have $15.5B in liquidity. Not close to bankruptcy.

Adjusting for size, AMR and UAL losses would be equivalent to F9 losing ~$75M in Q1.

I think I read one anslyst expects Frontier to loose about 70 Million, so I guess we are all doing about the same... we will see in a week.

Thanks for the response

TransWorld 04-21-2022 08:31 PM

1Q almost always loses money for all airlines. Sure, there are rare exceptions.

Aero1900 04-22-2022 04:54 AM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3410225)
1Q almost always loses money for all airlines. Sure, there are rare exceptions.

True. Unfortunately, Q2 is going to be rough too as fuel prices really took off at the end of FEB

Andy 04-28-2022 02:33 PM


Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 3410222)
I think I read one anslyst expects Frontier to loose about 70 Million, so I guess we are all doing about the same... we will see in a week.

Thanks for the response

For as close to apples to apples comparison of Q1 results,
United lost 2.50 cents per ASM
Frontier lost 2.06 cents per ASM

Aero1900 04-28-2022 03:08 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3413826)
For as close to apples to apples comparison of Q1 results,
United lost 2.50 cents per ASM
Frontier lost 2.06 cents per ASM

I listened to some of the call.

They sounded very optimistic about the future, but I guess Jan/Feb was ugly. Sales and revenue much better in March and looking good going forward.

Andy 04-28-2022 03:59 PM


Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 3413842)
I listened to some of the call.

They sounded very optimistic about the future, but I guess Jan/Feb was ugly. Sales and revenue much better in March and looking good going forward.

That sounds like a carbon copy of every other airline's Q1 report.
Jan/Feb sukked, Mar was good, forward guidance great.
Let's all hope so; it would be great if airlines would return to profitability.

United's problem going forward is that we're heavily dependent on Asian flying. And Asian underperformance was highlighted in Hawaiian Airlines' Q1 conference call. American and Delta should do better than United until Asia reopens.

Aero1900 04-28-2022 06:34 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3413864)
That sounds like a carbon copy of every other airline's Q1 report.
Jan/Feb sukked, Mar was good, forward guidance great.
Let's all hope so; it would be great if airlines would return to profitability.

United's problem going forward is that we're heavily dependent on Asian flying. And Asian underperformance was highlighted in Hawaiian Airlines' Q1 conference call. American and Delta should do better than United until Asia reopens.

Yep, that all sounds right.

I know China is being incredibly strict with Covid stuff still....

Andy 04-29-2022 09:39 AM


Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 3413842)
I listened to some of the call.

They sounded very optimistic about the future, but I guess Jan/Feb was ugly. Sales and revenue much better in March and looking good going forward.

I will not be surprised to see a lot of downward revisions in airline revenue estimates. The economic numbers that came out today were Fugly.

I know travel demand's high at the moment, but I would not at all be surprised to see airlines starting to park aircraft before the end of this year for financial reasons. The pent up demand for travel looks like it is going to be overtaken by economic concerns. On the bright side, the current pilot shortage will minimize layoffs should we have a big drop in traffic. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing a road to profitability for airlines unless demand increases.


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