Agreed, I think he would make a fairly good training program manager... but as a department Director, he's way out of his depth.

 

1) You may have a valid point. I don't think either F9 or NK can be as nonchalant about pilot retention as they lead us to believe though

2) If you're referring to synergies, then my opinion is that that is a stockholder benefit, not ours

3) I'd agree with you wholeheartedly here


One your last comment,


There are 1,600 pilots at F9 and 3,000 pilots at NK. I'll look at the 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% relative seniority guys for F9 (400, 800, 1200, 1600).


If F9 were to grow organically by 3,000 pilots then each of the above would have their relative seniority climb to:


#400 at 25% climbs to 8.7%


#800 at 50% climbs to 17.4%


#1200 at 75% climbs to 26.1%


#1600 at 100% climbs to 34.8%


The FO plug at F9 would become a mid range Captain with organic growth. If a merger with NK proceeds, not only will every pilot's relative seniority at F9 stagnate, but that growth potential will be lost forever. You're going to lose out on growth equal to 188% of your current seniority list. Every new hire at 1,600 pilots is far more significant than a new hire at 4,600 pilots.


I'll do the same for NK assuming organic growth of 1,600 additional pilots:


#750 at 25% climbs to 16.3%


#1500 at 50% climbs to 32.6%


#2250 at 75% climbs to 48.9%


#3000 at 100% climbs to 65.2%.


The FO plug at NK makes their way to reserve Captain. The merger will certainly disrupt seniority progression at NK, and destroy growth equal to 53% of our seniority list, but it won't be nearly as significant as what F9 is about to experience. F9 pilots are going to get fuuuuuuuudddddgggggggeeeeeddd in this merger and I don't even think you see it coming. NK and F9 are both growth airlines. We don't have the retirements to advance our careers and we're both dependent on a whole bunch of new pilots being added to the seniority list at the tail end, and not being woven into the existing list.


Every F9 pilot should be very vocal in opposition to this but all I seem to see are a bunch of guys praising Franke and his 'brilliance'. Of the 3 players and the 2 scenarios currently in play, F9 is going to be the biggest loser no matter the outcome.

 

I see the prospects for the F9 pilot group differently.

If Blue acquires NK, Frontier will move to fill the vacuum greatly aided by their substantial order book. Growth like that will be great for seniority advances for F9 pilots as well as negotiating power. If the F9/NK merger happens still good, but I think the B6/NK would be the better outcome for the F9 pilot group. The worst outcome for the Frontier guys IMO is that this all fizzles out and neither deal happens.

What if Ted and the NK BOD continue their resistance and Robin Hayes makes a deal with Indigo for Frontier???
…just speculation

 

You see no difference in pilot benefit between F9 adding 3,000 pilots and F9 merging 3,000 pilots. Am I understanding you correctly?

 

I'm sure how senior you are greatly affects your perspective. And that growth is not guaranteed.

I'm fairly senior, and I would prefer a merger. If I was a junior guy, I definitely would be against it. Not that it matters as I have zero say in the matter.

 

Yes of course, seniority list integration vs new hires entering at the bottom is obviously a huge difference for the F9 pilot group.

 

...of course the time frame is different

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^ agree 100%

 

I reread your post and I realized I inferred pessimism (imagine that on APC) which may or may not have been your intent.
My reply was an attempt to suggest a more positive outlook.

 

Hold on a second there professor. We've all been reading for months, if not years, about the 'unlimited' growth potential of F9, the brilliance of Franke, and the huge order that F9 (Indigo) placed for aircraft. A321XLR's and such going to Hawaii, Europe, and the horn of Africa. Is it your position now that this was all false? Is the growth at F9 over? Has the airline peaked without a merger?

Even if the growth at F9 isn't guaranteed, the seniority stagnation and destruction of a merger is. It would be far better to roll the dice on 'maybe' growth than certain stagnation.

Why do you prefer a merger? I haven't seen anyone yet clearly articulate the position for such. I am genuinely curious why anyone in a seniority based occupation would champion the destruction of their seniority. What do you see about a larger Franke regional that makes you want to sacrifice seniority? This isn't rhetorical, I'd really like to hear the thought process.