New Contract Realistic Timeline
 

Hello all,

I will be starting class at F9 within the next few months. I was wondering what a realistic timeline will be for the next contract to come? Ballpark, is it months, a year, a few years?

In addition, what are the biggest pitfalls in F9's current contract? For perspective, I am a 141 university CFI, so this will be my first 121 job.

TIA

6 months to 6 years is my estimate on when we will get a new contract.

LTD is crap
Sick notes are crap
5 hours per duty period not day is crap.

Talks don’t early open until July 2023, and the contract isn’t amenable until 2024. My hope is that management will see the dire need to have a contract that makes us marketable to quality pilots, and for that to expedite the process, but I wouldn’t count on it.

As far as pitfalls go, you’ll find varying opinions, but there are several contract loopholes that the company exploits, often resulting in crediting less than we should.

Regardless of the complaints you see here, F9 is infinitely better than a regional job, so congrats on skipping that stepping stone.

First of all, you scored big time. You really don't know how lucky you are. I made 14k a year flying 8 legs a day in a noisy ass turboprop. And i had to do that for 5 years to get hired at Frontier. And when I got hired at Frontier I only made $37/ hour. I was here 5 years making $88/ hour when this contract passed (10 years of being an airline pilot before I broke 100k)

Today, you'll start at $90/ hour, paid hotels, 15% automatic retirement contributions.... lucky duck! Im genuinely very happy for you, as this career desperately needed to get better. It has, and you a huge beneficiary of that.

This thread will lead to a bunch of grumpy ass guys that are masters of finding things to complain about. And that's a good thing too because that leads to improvements over time.

As for a new contract, my guess: 3 years.

Welcome and congratulations! Bust your ass in training and be the best pilot you can be.

The growth plans wont accommodate a 3 year negotiation process. Attrition is only going to worsen as new agreements are made at our competitors. By next year we’ll nearly be the lowest paid in the industry as far as the bus goes. Why would anyone come here? Regionals are more attractive on a $/hr basis.

Thank you all for the positive replies. I'm looking forward to coming on and I am very grateful to be able to skip the regionals.

I don’t disagree with your reasoning of saying 3 years for a new contract. I assume your reasoning is based on past experience.
I know franke and biffster have no desire to pay us more. They fully embrace the ulcc model which includes low pilot pay as well. Can you say Ryan air. The big difference this time around is the state of hiring taking place. Our last contract very little hiring was taking place. This time the legacies, wn, purple and brown are all hiring in numbers I’m not sure we have ever seen. Our only attraction to potential pilots right now is bases, and that’s not even that great.
If they don’t do something we’re going to fall so far behind on staffing we will park planes. And also this time around we have stock holders. Our stock is already down 50% from where it opened, just due to the market. Let us become unprofitable too, those investors will get mighty unhappy. The playing field is completely different today then what it was 4 years ago. Biffster might try to play games. Ok there is no might. He will. But he doesn’t have any real leverage this time. The only thing that helps him now is the economy going so far in the tank that the legacies stop hiring because they start parking planes.
could it happen. Sure. I think he is banking on it. But if it doesn’t, soon, he will have no choice to come to the table and talk.
DL, JB and NK have made it really hard for them to stretch it out too far.
as for all the people like the op. You’re coming in at a time that is unprecedented. Be thankful. But most importantly come in knowing we are worth the same pay our counterparts are making, or will be. Our management wants people like you. No experience in 121. And someone who is making very little right now. They are hoping you will come and be happy with the “big” money you’ll be making and you won’t be interested in fighting for more because you’re making more then you ever have.
I think a contract comes as soon as late ‘23. To many planes coming in the next 12 months. They just cannot afford to stall to long!

5+
just like the length of the last turd

I’m guessing 3 to 4 years based on past history. Sadly, there are several among us that will tell you that we should let every other carrier go before us in negotiations to raise the bar. They will try to convince you that it’s in our interest to let others do the heavy lifting before we take our turn. In the meantime we will be at our bottom rates and sub contract for years.

We will finally accept a contract that brings us up to last place, but closer to the pact. This pilot group will argue that it’s the best we were ever going to achieve, and will vote yes by about 75%.

I wish it were the case that we could leapfrog some others and set the bar higher, but I just don’t see it.

NK waited too long. Attrition is up. Utilization is down. Rumor is they’re losing $20 million per month right now.