No, definitely not. But it's reality.

Whenever I see discussions about pilot shortages, hiring, retirements and growth, no one ever talks about the other end of the issue. How many new pilots are being licensed? How busy are the flight schools? There's two sides to the equation.

There's no doubt the pilot market is in our favor this time though. And we must capitalize on it. This contract may be our best shot at making big gains

 

The good news is no matter how bad management or an individual’s may want it, not just anyone can go zero to hero. It’s actually a pretty small percentage. Not to mention commuting, being gone, health, etc. It’s a supplement, not an end all solution.

 

Even pilot mills like ATP are churning out pilots, that doesn't matter if none of them stay past 2 years.... If F9 was a career destination for most, they would get better pilots and better respect for the company, instead of the disdain from the pilot group they currently get.

 

So i guess you should ask the question do they want this place to be a career destination? I'm not convinced they want a lot of +12 year captains, or career FOs.

 

This is why Southwest is hiring so many this year, its not just retirements, many are leaving for legacy carriers.

 

And kind of again…what’s your point? Every pilots situation is different and chasing money, upgrades, or widebodies may or may not cost you in the end. There is no way to know. Go where you think you’ll be happy enough and hope for the best.

You mentioned airlines may merge and go out of business. Ya, a lot of things MAY happen. What if the the recession finally catches up to our industry and we have a slowdown? What if the LCCs continue to grow at 20% per year during an extended recession but the legacies shrink? What if it’s the other way around? What if F9 pauses aircraft retirements or shift aircraft orders from Wizz/Volaris/Jetsmart or another carrier and accelerate growth? What if F9 defers orders and slows growth? What if a furlough is necessary at one shop but not another? What if we all furlough? What if AA can’t pay their debt like they hope? What if they can? What if SWA gets widebody rates? What if other LCCs match those rates? What if 321XLRs begin to replace widebodies on international routes? What if Rice beats Texas? What if age 67 passes and all of the sudden the pilot shortage is over for just long enough for all of the pilot mills to be fully up and running? What if 67 and a slowdown happen at the same time? We are all just guessing.

 

Everything you said is wrong.

 

Not impossible but tough to be wrong on a question but okay. Again Tom help me out….what is your point?

 

Let's try to stay on target.

 

Heard Breeze pay scale for the 220 tops at $280…….. ?