Sinking Ship?
 

It was reported today that BB sold 37% of his stock. Take a look at our stock vs. the industry. My gut tells me we are in trouble. I’m talking slow speed train wreck kind of trouble. A liquidation of 37% of the CEOs holdings in the company when the stock is way down is a really, really bad signal.

What say the masses?

Hear comes the chicken littles

even at todays all time low it’s still a $1.6 billion company, a company that is profitable btw. I’m personally not happy with the stock performance but if it says anything it’s that wall Streets opinion of our managements ability to run the place is low.

stock price means nothing. We have lots of planes and cheap tickets. Plus word of mouth is our best advertisement. The planes are new and our destinations are good. As long as the weather behaves and doesn’t storm much. It’s a rough time in the industry for everyone.

Why do so many people at this company believe this place is going bust? One day we will just walk into work and there will be a closed for business sign on the front door.

if you knew for a fact that this place was going under, you’d be an idiot to stay. Everyone would be idiots to stay.

It’s this satire? Word of mouth is a double-edged sword, and I’ll tell you we aren’t on the “best advertisement” side of that blade. Additionally, we don’t own any planes. When the skipper sells nearly half of his stock in the company, and said stock is at historic lows, it is a red flag.

From my perspective, Wall Street sees the business model failing. The profit margins are a major disappointment.

Finally, to counter your point, the rest of the industry is doing pretty well currently.

there’s no such thing as bad publicity. People sell stocks all day, millions of shares are exchanged everyday so what if it happens here. We own our planes, this isn’t a regional where we’re doing business as “insert airline” next time you’re at work look at the name on the side. And no they aren’t, you should’ve seen the line in ATL a few days ago. I was on American last week and we were delayed over an hour. These problems aren’t just frontier specific

"It’s a rough time in the industry for everyone."

Seriously?

It is the best time in the industry. Airline profits are at an all time high. The legacy airlines have the highest average ticket prices and the highest load factor ever.

I haven't seen a flight with more than a couple empty seats in months!

I don’t think it’s the canary in the coal mine but it isn’t a good look for sure 💀

I would think it says BB could finally be on the way out?

Not sure, but the operational metrics seem to indicate BB is performing in line with the stock.

It says that he is probably knowing he will be on the way out soon. I am sure Franke doesn't appreciate single digit margins when everyone else was at least double digit. Current management has ran this place into the ground since covid... Pre covid, F9 was doing pretty well. Expect a management shakeup in the near future if I had to guess.

but, you also have to remember the uppers are paid in shares more than cash... so if he sells X amount of shares, it is just him collecting money he might need for something instead of leaving it in the stocks. (like that house in Texas)

But no, I am not scared about someone in management selling their stocks.

that's what i was thinking.

I agree with all off this. Upper management is paid with stock, not salary. It's the same at most every company. And for good reason too. Far less taxes on that income. 15% vs 37%. So no, Biffle selling stock is not a sign the sky is falling. And if you all recall, we are making roughly a million dollars a day

There hasn’t been a metric that has met any of the goals for weeks. I think I saw one in the black and it was bag metric.

Also BB hasn’t put out any cool aid videos for some time now.

I would wager a fair amount of money that there hasn't been 10 total "black" metrics since they started the emails.

what metric do you think the investors care about? Because it's not on the lists. It's profit. Which was over 9% last quarter

If I’m an investor, I’d absolutely care about how bad the performance numbers are. It’s easy to poke fun of “chicken littles”, but these numbers are a legitimate concern from a sustainability standpoint.

Of course they don’t happen in a vacuum. I have no idea how they compare to everybody else.

My thoughts go back to just a year ago we were aiming to purchase a company almost twice our size and now in just that short time the ship is sinking?

Even if it is do you think it will just go to zero? Or do you think a more likely outcome would be an outside purchase of some kind before it’s allowed to get there? I can’t see an investment company letting 2B evaporate.

actually to remain "listed" on the stock exchange, and maintain a viable financial position with lenders and banks, a corporation indeed needs to maintain a minimum stock price. I believe the NASDAQ requires $3 over XXX months or something, not sure. There is lots of fine print and legaleze regarding listing.

However a de-listed company can have problems raising additional money, as "stock price" often = reputation and credibility for lenders and investors.

I feel this place is beyond repair. Several 10 year captains leaving, FOs leaving at a record pace, the highest in the industry actually. Management that has threatened pilots with section 19s, extreme cost cutting measures, this place is a type rating factory to the legacies. Our outlook is not bright. Don’t get stuck and look back at your career knowing that you could have made the jump to a better life. When’s the last time you told someone you fly for frontier and didn’t have that cringey taste in your mouth.

I tell them I drive a bus.. I start driving the bus over at the Denver airport and end my shift each time at the Denver airport. Bamm. No cringey taste.

I gave your mom a cringey taste in her mouth last night

We're very lucky to have intelligent, well-spoken, mature professionals who can contribute to the discussion.

Operations that go bust never do so with no pilots to come to work. There are always plenty of pilots in the shop when the doors close, and if you've never seen an operation close so fast that people literally show up and the doors are closed, then you're new to aviation.

Wait until you've been overseas on a trip and find that the company closed the doors last night. It's happened. That doesn't mean it will happen here, but your assertion that this isn't reasonable indicates you may be new to aviation.

When the doors close, there are always pilots still employed, who hung on until the bitter end. Even when they knew the doors were closing.

If you'd said that upper management gets stock in addition to salary, you'd have been closer to making a correct statement. As it is, you're not.

It's the same at most every company.

You take this a little too seriously and a little too literally.

Yes, the correct statement should read that Biffle makes both a salary and a significant amount of company stock. But I'm pretty sure he makes 10x more in stock than in salary. And for the exact reasons I mentioned. The point that actually matters is that him selling stock is to be expected, it's a significant chunk of his income. Doesn't mean the ship is sinking.

I'll clean up my act for you though

You better, or he'll tell his mom! Then you'll be in BIG trouble.

[QUOTE=JohnBurke;3679907

Operations that go bust never do so with no pilots to come to work. There are always plenty of pilots in the shop when the doors close, and if you've never seen an operation close so fast that people literally show up and the doors are closed, then you're new to aviation.

Wait until you've been overseas on a trip and find that the company closed the doors last night. It's happened. That doesn't mean it will happen here, but your assertion that this isn't reasonable indicates you may be new to aviation.

When the doors close, there are always pilots still employed, who hung on until the bitter end. Even when they knew the doors were closing.
.[/QUOTE]

You're right I am new. Didn't mean to offend you with my ignorance. Company makes a profit. Has a large airbus order in the books. Relatively low debt. Owned by a holding company that seems to have plans to grow its various aviation investments around the world.

But you know, between the class action lawsuit against F9 for baggage fees, Barry selling his stock, our performance metrics,
all signs point to shutting the doors very soon.

What company do you work for so I can sling your gear as an "new aviation" FO? Give me your Airline Pilot Central knowledge.

People have been saying Go Jet & Mesa are inevitably shutting down for years and here we are. We're not shutting down, we are making a million dollars per day for Indigo & Barry.

1. He makes about 3X more in stock versus salary. Not 10x

2. Selling stock while the price is falling raises eyebrows

* Barry has sold more since May 2023 than he has ever sold at any point previous:

http://openinsider.com/screener?s=UL...cnt=100&page=1

https://finance.yahoo.com/sec-filing...00033_1670076/

You're actually lucky if they only owe you two or less paychecks when the deposits stop.

That said, Frontier has too much of value to just fold, order book and access to more pilots would at least mean a fragmented breakup, but soon Frontier could be worth more as pieces than as a whole.

I, in no way, think it’s likely to happen, but since it was mentioned and just to educate myself - how would a fragmented sale work as far as pilots are concerned? My memory is fuzzy on historical times that it may have happened.

I absolutely opinion that Frontier will never, not, no way, fold or cease ops, etc. No way

Will another investment group get them, via purchase, merger, take-over, whatever ?
Will Pilot pay be resolved and brought up to current Airbus pay across the industry ?
Will upgrades slow (or quicken) ?
Will pilot QOL / schedules / etc improve or get worse?


those, for me, are the unknowns.

Fold/cease ops/etc ? nope

I was still a kid but Pan Am - sold their pacific operations to United. The FO from the Tenerife accident Actually retired a UAL pilot. Other airlines took other bits and pieces but did not take pilots. Didn’t Delta get a lot of Europe slots ?

Delta got Europe and the Airbus A300 from Pan Am when then provided them a line of credit just prior to them shutting down. Pan Am came back to Delta for another line of line credit to avoid a shut down and Delta said no. Only Pan Am Airbus pilots ended up on the seniority list at Delta while everyone left over ended up on the street including those senior to the Airbus pilots…

Delta got their Europe operation including 5th freedom rights in Berlin, if I remember right. My Uncle was a 747 Captain for Pan Am based in LAX. He was one of the last ones absorbed into UAL, and as a kid, I remember my mom telling me that he was worried for a while. Delta did indeed take quite a few Pan Am pilots too. . You probably have a fragmentation clause in your contract that defines how many pilots go with aircraft, in the event of a fragmentation or break up. But I wouldn’t worry about that too much. There is so much demand for airline seats right now, worst case for you guys is a major or legacy scooping you up or merging with you. Frontier is making money and I’m sure your planes are pretty full, if not completely full. Every airline is having operational problems too, and Denver has been especially hard hit with delays lately, even without weather, there have been 2-3 hour delays. I think ATC is really short staffed in Denver and NYC. It’s a headache this summer.

Hang in there guys and girls, I don’t think you have anything to worry about.

The guys that think this place will just close up shop are crazy. There is plenty of value in the pieces that make this airline we would be bought and merged if things got ugly.

not disagreeing but keep in mind that BB makes a point to not really "own anything." Aircraft are leased/financed (owned by the lender), engines the same, etc etc.

And as mentioned before, all aircraft on order that some believe to mean we HAVE to grow are entirely fungible among Indigo's assets... ie they can be reallocated from Frontier to Wizz, Volaris, Jetsmart, etc. with the stroke of a pen.

True we don’t own anything but currently the value is the rights to our assets. I remember when we owned airplanes and it was played up as an asset “a piggy bank we can tap into” (was the actual quote.) So what happened when the world tanked in 2008 and airplanes were dime a dozen? Our piggy bank disappeared. Franke is smart to lease everything…incredible leverage for another 2008 event (or Covid)…“want your airplanes back? Sure! Here they are! Oh, you don’t want them because everyone is returning airplanes? Ok, let’s negotiate!”