You could literally extend this to every person who was ever hired here post 2016. Just give it up already.

Doubts?
 

Looking at the Q1 comparisons across U.S. airlines, almost everyone is trending in the right direction year-over-year.

United up.
Delta up.
Southwest swinging back to profit.
Allegiant strong and getting stronger.
Even American narrowing losses.

And then there’s us.

Frontier’s Q1 loss is projected to be worse than last year.

That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. I want to believe in the direction under JD. I want to believe the delivery deferrals and strategy shifts are setting us up for long-term stability.

But when the rest of the industry is improving and we’re moving backward, at least in the near term, it’s hard to feel warm and fuzzy.

This isn’t doom. It’s just reality. The numbers are the numbers.

Here’s hoping the back half of the year proves the thesis right.

Fillers?

https://i.postimg.cc/907v6PwD/output.png
United (UA)
• Q1 2025: $0.91 adj ($1.16 GAAP)
• Q1 2026 forecast: $1.33

Delta (DL)
• Q1 2025: $0.46
• Q1 2026 forecast: $0.71

Southwest (LUV)
• Q1 2025: –$0.13 adj (–$0.26 GAAP)
• Q1 2026 forecast: $0.52

Allegiant (ALGT)
• Q1 2025: ~$2.11 airline adj ($1.73 GAAP)
• Q1 2026 forecast: $2.50–$3.50

Sun Country (SNCY)
• Q1 2025: ~$0.72 adj (~$0.66 GAAP)
• Q1 2026 forecast: ~$0.74

American (AAL)
• Q1 2025: –$0.59
• Q1 2026 forecast: –$0.28

JetBlue (JBLU)
• Q1 2025: –$0.59
• Q1 2026 forecast: –$0.56

Frontier (ULCC)
• Q1 2025: –$0.19
• Q1 2026 forecast: –$0.26 to –$0.44

We have a bunch of planes basically sitting unused that will be getting terminated before long. I don't think this is necessarily surprising.

Stop the FUD. Everyone knows it takes 6-12 months before a new strategy takes hold and 1-2 years before it matures.

I get the point about under-utilized aircraft and upcoming terminations impacting Q1 and Q2. That part makes sense. BTW we do end the year with roughly the same fleet count though. Also, utilization doesn’t really start ramping until March I believe, so most of Q1 is still operating at the lower level. That probably explains why Q1 guidance looks worse YOY, for now. If the move toward the 11 hours is real, the impact wouldn’t meaningfully show up until Q2 and especially Q3. So maybe Q1 isn’t the story. The real test of JD’s plan is whether we see margin expansion once higher utilization runs through a full quarter. If that doesn’t show up by mid-year, then it’s a different conversation.

One thing that’ll be interesting to watch is how income looks without the tailwind of additional SLBs. With utilization ramping and fleet roughly flat, it’ll be telling to see how much of the improvement comes from actual operating leverage versus financial structure next year.

Right. Q2/3 will tell the story.

Discussing earnings guidance isn’t FUD. I’m trying to understand the timing of the turnaround, not predict doom.

it’s the first quarter of the year and Jimmy is just getting started. This is literally Biffle’s carryover. Tutes are happy with the strategic change and direction. Yes, it’s FUD.

We will still see 24ish aircraft delivered this year so the SLB gains will help prop us up in the mean time. 14 aircraft are still planned on being delivered this year by the time we return the 24.

It wasn’t clear how fast we can get to 11 hours of utilization. I still don’t see the viability their plan completely yet. I begrudgingly get the fleet reduction but If off peak days were greatly reduced because they weren’t making enough money, flying more on those days will not magically make more money. Yes, yes, he has said the right things about reliability and customer service but those will take years to achieve.

Yup, I am aware of the 24 deliveries. I am curious to see how things change after this year though. We had around 5 delivered this year so far, some delayed from 2025. We have a total of 179 on property at this moment. 24xA320N's to be returned by the and of Q2. With those 24 returns, the remaining 21 deliveries will get us to 176 by EOY.

"Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer, Frontier Group Holdings: Yeah, so the delivery cadence, you know, for this year, so we have 24 aircraft scheduled, 6 in the first quarter, 8 in the second quarter, and then 5 in both the, the third and fourth quarter. And with the, you know, the fleet plan that we announced, when you look at those 24 inductions, 24, you know, early terminations, we expect to end the year, you know, with the same number of aircraft we began the year with, so 176. And then as you, you know, look across, you know, 2027, you know, we expect to be, you know, roughly by the end of 2027 at a similar level to, you know, where, where we ended 2025 and expect to end 2026."