The ruling basically is the court saying we (the government) should not faciliate anything that hampers competition. Now, if the "free market" (Spirit fails and shuts down, due to no merger), and thus consumers are left with fewer choices to travel, so be it. The blood is not on the government's hands.
Regarding the "Frontier will buy Spirit theory" - that was proposed in July 2022, when Frontier stock price was $12. Frontier was going to use Frontier shares to buy Spirit. Imagine $12 each tokens to play games at Chuck E. Cheese. Now those tokens are worth $5 each. Can Barry pull it off, even if he wants to ?
"Spirit is on sale now" (Stock price down 60%). While true, the better decision will be Barry lets them bleed out, then magically appear with a Barry Biffle first aid kit. What is Spirit going to say? No?
So expect a lot of "we are not interested anymore" / "2024 we are looking at other focus areas" when Barry is asked. Make no mistake, I am sure Barry is considering buying/merging/etc with Spirit.
My opinion is Spirit, now with no dance partner, is at risk of bankruptcy and insolvency and possibly closing its doors altogether, sans another rescue attempt (which we know the DOJ is against anyway).
Alaska/Hawaiian - they will closely monitor the developments in this case and carefully craft their case, which will be successful. JetBlue and Spirit was the classroom for the Alaska/HA merger.
So the question for Frontier, which nobody knows the answer to, is: what is next?
Stay tuned