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Q1 2024 Earnings Call: May 2 at 11AM EDT

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Old 04-30-2024, 04:51 PM
  #1  
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Default Q1 2024 Earnings Call: May 2 at 11AM EDT

Link: https://ir.flyfrontier.com/


https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/cujn8z2g/

Note:

Spirit will be May 6
Allegiant will be May 7

What is everyone's crystal ball saying? With LCC's (not U-LCCs...) JetBlue's recent Q1 loss, and Southwest reporting a Q1 loss, how will Frontier do this quarter?

Excuses? JAX Center again? FAA Staffing woes? "these losses were expected, and baked in" spin by Barry? Staffing is great, classes are full?

Will anyone on the earnings call ask him hard questions or more softball/easy questions ?
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Old 04-30-2024, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by hercretired View Post
Link: https://ir.flyfrontier.com/


https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/cujn8z2g/

Note:

Spirit will be May 6
Allegiant will be May 7

What is everyone's crystal ball saying? With LCC's (not U-LCCs...) JetBlue's recent Q1 loss, and Southwest reporting a Q1 loss, how will Frontier do this quarter?

Excuses? JAX Center again? FAA Staffing woes? "these losses were expected, and baked in" spin by Barry? Staffing is great, classes are full?

Will anyone on the earnings call ask him hard questions or more softball/easy questions ?
Idk but I am ready to hear what they have to say. Too bad Ill be landing after it is over
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Old 04-30-2024, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by hercretired View Post

What is everyone's crystal ball saying?
If you had asked me in mid Jan or early Feb, I would have said we're actually going to make money.

However, I've seen a lot of light loads Mar & Apr.

F9 gave guidance in Feb to expect -4% to -7% adjusted pre-tax margin.

My guess is we probably lose money but less than 4%.

Or heck, we might break even.

Last edited by ginntonic; 04-30-2024 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 04-30-2024, 06:14 PM
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Lot more CX flights too, when looking at the daily numbers.
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Old 04-30-2024, 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted by ginntonic View Post
If you had asked me in mid Jan or early Feb, I would have said we're actually going to make money.

However, I've seen a lot of light loads Mar & Apr.

F9 gave guidance in Feb to expect -4% to -7% adjusted pre-tax margin.

My guess is we probably lose money but less than 4%.

Or heck, we might break even.
I would agree except the light load portions. I saw high loads in March but the cancellation rate was awful. If it’s true it’s about 50k per cancel than that March cost us about 25M.

I would say had we been on time in March we may have nearly pulled out a profit but I’m guessing we are within initial guidance. The trick is to guess are we going to announce wifi, first class seats, and a push for business/premium to increase stock price or does the quarter and forward guidance look more like our competitors and the price go down?
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Old 04-30-2024, 08:53 PM
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Originally Posted by hercretired View Post
Link: https://ir.flyfrontier.com/


https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/cujn8z2g/

Note:

Spirit will be May 6
Allegiant will be May 7

What is everyone's crystal ball saying? With LCC's (not U-LCCs...) JetBlue's recent Q1 loss, and Southwest reporting a Q1 loss, how will Frontier do this quarter?

Excuses? JAX Center again? FAA Staffing woes? "these losses were expected, and baked in" spin by Barry? Staffing is great, classes are full?

Will anyone on the earnings call ask him hard questions or more softball/easy questions ?
Almost every airline shows a loss 1Q. Have for decades. Those three months are the lowest ridership and softest price point.
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Old 05-01-2024, 04:49 AM
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My prediction. -5% margin. They are going to blame the complexity of having too many crew bases and needing to have more overall reserve coverage spread out among the numerous bases. Going to streamline operations by going to one crew base per time zone.
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Old 05-01-2024, 05:16 AM
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Originally Posted by DumboDrop View Post
My prediction. -5% margin. They are going to blame the complexity of having too many crew bases and needing to have more overall reserve coverage spread out among the numerous bases. Going to streamline operations by going to one crew base per time zone.
This made me laugh. I'm not really sure what they'll say this time. Seems like they are running out of excuses, although I've thought that for over a year now.
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Old 05-01-2024, 12:14 PM
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Given that crew costs are 40% below market rates, I hope they can manage to turn a profit. If not, it raises serious concerns about the viability of this business model.
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Old 05-01-2024, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Planedrive View Post
Given that crew costs are 40% below market rates, I hope they can manage to turn a profit. If not, it raises serious concerns about the viability of this business model.
they could be 40% above market, it doesn’t really matter 🫤
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