You got planes coming, but with less flying, reducing flying Tuesdays and Saturdays. Crews not being used. Math ain’t mathing

With the order book being reaffirmed well into 2026 it’s highly unlikely. Even if we were to drop to 12.5 pilots per airplane we would be right sized by the end of the year with our current order book and no attrition. They will keep offering COLAS and eat the cost of whatever pilots don’t take them until attrition or growth right size us. Now if domestic demand falls further, and yields with it, then we will revisit the possibility. That was not at all what was said during the call though. They also extended more leases set to expire during 2026/2027 in the last three months according to the 10Q. They are never specific on how many though.

Sort of. It’s more a question of how much flying can we squeeze out of every available asset on 4 particular days a week? T/W will see only 3-4 Block per plane so that’s going to bring the average across the fleet waaaay down. Enjoy your new days off on T/W everybody.

Yep... Didnt know this was allegiant. They have two hard days off basically, but you end up flying weekends to make up for those days. Its a shame. I wonder what the legacies load factor/yields are on Tues and Wed?

Enjoy only having weekends off if you are top 10-15 in base now.

legacies have an advantage they can run a RJ (cheaper casm) on routes that are low yield certain days. But that said every regional has nearly a 2x cost factor than F9. But imagine how ****ed customers get when they book and get stuck on a legacy regional POS CRJ.

or do what AA does is make 5 flights then cancel the first one so the other 4 are more full.

Stock continuing to drop today…3.18 a share and continuing drop. Investors still absorbing the news. The more they look into it… the more they hate it. BB getting upset at questions only biting him now.

I’ll have to look into this. My main heartburn with F9 from a paying passenger’s perspective (I’ve paid to fly before and after I worked there) is system redundancy. I was twice screwed over by a broken plane at F9 and had to book a $400, last minute ticket on WN (a terrible flight experience, no wonder they are slipping). I’d happily pay to insure my F9 ticket from cancellation and guaranteeing getting to my destination on another airline. I saw many vacations ruined, or dramatically affected by F9’s lack of redundancy. It was sad to see. This might be a game changer for them. Win one for the C suite if it’s a real thing. It’s innovative and outside the box. I know a lot of great people at Frontier, and I’d like to see them succeed.

On a very positive note, I jump seated to PHL from CLT last week that the GA, whose initials were TH, was an absolute example of customer service, politeness, and professionalism. Is there anyway to put in the good word for her? F9 needs to be rewarding her and those like her.

+$524mm on the balance sheet. Bleeding $70 mil a quarter will drain that with a quickness. I hope they can figure it out. I don’t see how they are forecasting big profits next year. Hopium???

yep. I don’t think anyone other airlines has mentioned much about next year except bb. So the analyst were like huh

The glass is half full my friend. Great time to buy ULCC.

I bought SAVEQ when it went below $1.00. Just gotta be patient. They’ll turn it around over there.

If you listen to the call they have their reasons they say we will be profitable. Not saying they can pull it off, but they definitely think they can.

Listen to the call, it's worth the time I think

The numbers sucked, but honestly not sure I feel that pessimistic. We'll know within 6-8 weeks what the trajectory of this company is going to be.. Might even be optimistic.

This drove me absolutely NUTS. The repeated undertone of condescension in his voice in response to the people who are bankrolling our airline was incredibly frustrating to hear.

It definitely was worth the time and helped a little. I still have concerns though. Stahl mentioned in a previous post there still was no clear direction forward besides cuts. No real initiatives to drive revenue forward and incentivize passengers on off peak days. What if the cuts aren’t enough? More cuts? What if Thursday and Monday start to suck too? Are we just going to cut flights those days too? They mentioned the website and app, CC spending, and first class but that won’t be enough. I’m a little aggravated the investors never ask about on time performance or cancellations. There are direct correlations with revenue and performance.

Some key details he left out numbered in the 10Q were the 50m discount on gas vs last year which helped us out big time and the 103m credit from a maintenance pre deposit. I’m very curious what the 300M in committed financing is going to be for. My mind still races to a merger is inevitable and inbound. We have to get the yields higher on the domestic market sooner rather than later.

FWIW Allegiant used to never fly on Tue/Sat and less flying on Wed than the other days. Especially in smaller bases. My last few years there that evened out a bit. Allegiant is mostly a leisure airline and nobody leaves on vacation mid week or Saturday. Mostly leave Thu/Fri and come home Sun/Mon. It was nice knowing you were unlikely to work those days and could plan things well ahead. As it turned out since there were very few flights working the low days trended very senior. Picking up a reserve shift on a Tuesday or Saturday was easy money (yes line holders can do that at G4).

I think the problem with Spirit and Frontier is that they fly to large airports and try to compete with the legacies offering a much lower fare to the same places. The legacies squashed that by offering cheap basic fares with better service and more reliability. If you live in Iowa or Wisconsin or upstate NY and want to go somewhere Allegiant is alone offering direct flights to airports most other airlines either don't serve direct (like Destin or SW FL or Myrtle or Nashville) or serve with connections that usually involve an RJ and then a drive to the final destination. If you live in Chicago or Dallas or Atlanta you have lots of better choices than any ULCC. The other ULCCs would be wise to copy the allegiant model and quit operating in major airline hubs. Small airport point to point is the secret of Allegiant's success but that's a huge culture change from what most airline pilots are used to. Working at allegiant was a true part time job and definitely a slow paced lifestyle compared to other airlines. That's probably why allegiant pilots seem to be less militant and other than low pay and a crappy in house PBS system that abrogates seniority don't have many complaints. The other down side to that lifestyle is a lot of small bases that you have to actually live in. Very very few G4 pilots commute.

Not sure how anyone can expect or demand a contract anytime soon, especially one that is in line with the legacies.

Yeah.... Idk why our executives should be getting paid any more bonuses or any more than previous years....

Such a terrible argument and I hate that it is how it works, but I personally don't give a rats @** about how our financials are. It isnt my problem and if they can steer this ship into the ground while getting paid 8m+ a year, then we can get a standard contract like everyone else.

I totally agree they should not be taking fat bonuses either but imagine they had to fork over a legacy contract right now after losing $70 million and the forecast looks bleak?

lol. You must be independently wealthy. Good for you, brother!

Unfortunately, I depend on the income I earn from this airline and so if it goes the Spirit route and starts for furloughing, downgrading, displacing, etc., it is VERY MUCH my problem.

absolutely. Things are super expensive. We’re paid less now than we were during covid adjusted for purchasing power. They had raises. Funny how we can always find money for C suite raises but we can’t bill more to pay our pilots and employees to even keep up with inflation.

they should lose their job not be rewarded for effectively crashing the company into the ground.

Don't say things like that

Our pay rates are built into the hourly cost of aircraft usage. the fact that we are roughly 40% lower wasn't a silver bullet so far as revenue. The poor result of this quarter is because of not charging enough, to many bases and poor staff utilization. (from day turns). And as always an exceedingly bad reputation. This airline is turned inside out. the poorly thought out adjustments to the way we do business result in high turnover, low experienced pilots and Flight attendants and direct competition with NK while trying to be Ryan Air yet somehow failing miserably.

A low overhead model works not just as an Airline but just about every other kind of business as well. Our problems are not low overhead ,but poor execution.

If this company is going to fail it is not going to be because of flight crew pay rates.

Put another way. they offer nothing , we ask for the sun the stars and the moon. we end up somewhere in the middle
they offer nothing (as they have already) we ask for a modest pay raise and you can expect 30 to 50 % of what you ask for.

In four years people will be leaving F9 to go to SkyWest for the money if the situation does not improve.

You don't get it. You're probably a 25 year old Riddle Rat that has no idea what you're talking about or the airline industry in general. I recommend getting off apc and start researching airline and union history. Hopefully Breeze will hire you.

22 year old riddle rat, thanks.

Restricted ATP flying airplanes, union busting, and running for the next F9 ceo.

What can’t Embry Riddle graduates do?

find a girl 😂

I was gonna say they don’t shut up.

But, thumbs up, you win.

… in which a grown man or woman, unable to counter cogently the common sense argument laid out by a mere “25 year old Riddle Rat,” resorts to cheap ad hominem attacks.

Schoolyard bully behavior from someone who fancies themself the wiser and more mature one.

Only at the airlines baby! 😂

The airline lost money this quarter. F U and your contract was the response.

Real sturdy ground breaking arguments there bob.

I bet you’re the type of person to call yourself “smart”.

bottom line, if the chicken laying the golden egg dies, no more eggs

the company's health indeed is important.

with that said, pay negotiations should not be "held up" for something outside of pilot control. This is not 9-11 or COVID. Barry and Gang have decided to outsource everything and end up with horrible gate agents, and a poor customer experience.

They are "accepting airplanes" because when you buy a car, the dealer doesn't store it for you. Come get your car. "But We don't need a car now." Not our problem, get this car off our lot, you own it now. So "accepting airplanes" means nothing. Of course they are "accepting" them. this goes back to Barry decision making.

He should have kept the XLR orders and jumped on the PHL (huge Irish population) to Dublin market. At least then, he would have diversified his portfolio with some international customers (wait, international is important and lucrative? who woulda thought?) versus hanging his hat on the ULCC customer.

Again, back to Barry decision making.

Pilots should not be penalized for that.

Would the XLR made PHL to dublin? I know there's been some debate about the range they were advertising.

D Schurz one said in recurrent "No LCC has crossed the atlantic, and survived. Do we wanna be the first to try? With NBs?"

I always felt like he was one of the adults in the room. But, I could be wrong. Here we are.

well, Dan left.

He is at JetBlue

the airline that may be worse off financially than us?

TAP: BOS-LIS
Iberia: BOS-MAD…BOS-BCN…SJU-MAD
JetBlue: BOS-MAD…BOS-AMS

Lots of airlines are doing it….but not with 340 passengers…

not sure I’d go that far. They are in more debt… but they have some assets that have not been leveraged against and they own what, half the planes if not more? The frontier assets 🤔. They turned an operational profit with paying the pilots. Frontier lost money operationally and pay like 40% less salary.

Circling the drain…

Circling the drain rapidly. Indigo milked Frontier as much as it could and I’m sure they have an exit strategy.

Alaska/Hawaiian is hiring as well as United and I believe Delta. Heck if this place is imminently doomed like you say I'd look at Atlas, Netjets, etc as well. Good luck to you!

The faucet is about to be cranked up in 2026 that is for sure. Our attrition rates are going to rise considerably.

If they are, and he still left, what does that tell you about Frontier ?

Eh. 99% sure he was asked nicely to leave. Probably because he bruised BB's ego. He knew the 80-90% turn model wouldn't work. He said it in a rgs like a year before he left. Look where we are now?? I'd fire BB and hire DS tomorrow. This turn thing isn't being talked about enough imo. BB blew everything up to try this even when DS and Crew Planning explicitly said it wasn't possible. Now we have too many small bases spread too thin and nothing is working properly and no one is happy. Great plan Barry.