Ukraine conflict
04-27-2023, 09:18 AM
#691
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,595
It’s a war…
…and everyone has logistics problems:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65347835
An excerpt:
Another excerpt:
Of course as Hubcapped has repeatedly stated, this could all be a bunch of commie propaganda, although the BBC is not exactly known for that.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65347835
An excerpt:
His unit, the 17th Tank Battalion, is still being called on to provide fire support to Ukrainian forces desperately clinging on to the edges of Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city which Russia has spent months trying to capture.
Russian forces are getting ever closer to their goal of taking the city, but at enormous cost.
While we're waiting in a line of trees, hidden from view, Volodymyr receives a call to fire his rocket launcher at a Russian mortar position about 15 kilometres away.His men remove the branches camouflaging their vehicle. They drive towards an empty field about a kilometre away and quickly work out the range.
They elevate the rocket barrels towards the target while, out of sight, a Ukrainian drone hovering above assesses their accuracy.
They're told their first rocket misses by about 50 metres, so they adjust the elevation and fire another two and quickly return to the trees for cover. This time they're told they've hit the target.
Volodymyr however, is frustrated they can't do more. "We could have provided more support to our guys who are dying there."
He says Ukraine has already burned through its own stocks of Grad ammunition, so is relying on rockets sourced from other countries. Volodymyr says supplies are coming from the Czech Republic, Romania and Pakistan. He complains the rockets originating from Pakistan are "not of a good quality"
Russian forces are getting ever closer to their goal of taking the city, but at enormous cost.
While we're waiting in a line of trees, hidden from view, Volodymyr receives a call to fire his rocket launcher at a Russian mortar position about 15 kilometres away.His men remove the branches camouflaging their vehicle. They drive towards an empty field about a kilometre away and quickly work out the range.
They elevate the rocket barrels towards the target while, out of sight, a Ukrainian drone hovering above assesses their accuracy.
They're told their first rocket misses by about 50 metres, so they adjust the elevation and fire another two and quickly return to the trees for cover. This time they're told they've hit the target.
Volodymyr however, is frustrated they can't do more. "We could have provided more support to our guys who are dying there."
He says Ukraine has already burned through its own stocks of Grad ammunition, so is relying on rockets sourced from other countries. Volodymyr says supplies are coming from the Czech Republic, Romania and Pakistan. He complains the rockets originating from Pakistan are "not of a good quality"
At another location near Bakhmut, Ukrainian troops from its 80th Brigade are already expending hundreds of artillery rounds a day, to try to repel Russia's advances.
They are already using some of the weapons supplied by the West. Serhiy and his men are operating a British made L119 light artillery gun. But Serhiy says they too are having to ration rounds. He says they're firing on average 30 rounds a day.
"We've got enough people for the moment", he says. "But we need ammunition. Ammunition is the most important."
I ask Serhiy if this is the make or break year for Ukraine. "If we go on the offensive this year and retake our land, then we'll win," he replies. "But, if that doesn't happen, then we don't have the resources for the war to go on for another five to ten years."
Volodymyr, the commander of the Grad, is even more blunt. "The country is exhausted, the economy too," he says.
And he fears that if Ukraine's action on the battlefield are not decisive this year then Western support may falter. "We are also worried our Western allies are getting tired of helping us."
They are already using some of the weapons supplied by the West. Serhiy and his men are operating a British made L119 light artillery gun. But Serhiy says they too are having to ration rounds. He says they're firing on average 30 rounds a day.
"We've got enough people for the moment", he says. "But we need ammunition. Ammunition is the most important."
I ask Serhiy if this is the make or break year for Ukraine. "If we go on the offensive this year and retake our land, then we'll win," he replies. "But, if that doesn't happen, then we don't have the resources for the war to go on for another five to ten years."
Volodymyr, the commander of the Grad, is even more blunt. "The country is exhausted, the economy too," he says.
And he fears that if Ukraine's action on the battlefield are not decisive this year then Western support may falter. "We are also worried our Western allies are getting tired of helping us."
04-27-2023, 09:43 AM
#692
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,595
Sanctions are being evaded all over Europe and Asia through smuggling and sales to shell companies. Malaysia is selling China almost twice as much oil as they actually produce, largely through transshipments of Russia oil.
of course, as Hubcapped said, this might all be commie propaganda, although Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty are not typically known for spreading commie propaganda…
Clearly, Reuters motives for spreading this is questionable as well
04-28-2023, 05:46 PM
#693
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 747
Originally Posted by Hubcapped
back on track despite the constant interjections by the Russian troll,
this is a great question. Your estimate of hull loses is actually lower than ones that I’ve seen from European think tanks. Regardless, I think the heart of the matter is that no, they will not have enough vicks to go one for one. as of this summer the RU will have to rely on established defensive lines. If they have enough konkurs to make a difference, troops that will hold the line, NCOs with the authority to make split second decisions, and enough dispersed mobile arty to slow an offensive then I believe they will stop the Ukrainians. If moral is low, they get flanked, fail to heed past lessons about troop concentrations, or run out of ammo, I think they will run. This is all predicated upon Méto’s point that the Russian Air Force will absolutely slow an offensive unless the pats can provide an umbrella.
we shall see. It is certainly fascinating
this is a great question. Your estimate of hull loses is actually lower than ones that I’ve seen from European think tanks. Regardless, I think the heart of the matter is that no, they will not have enough vicks to go one for one. as of this summer the RU will have to rely on established defensive lines. If they have enough konkurs to make a difference, troops that will hold the line, NCOs with the authority to make split second decisions, and enough dispersed mobile arty to slow an offensive then I believe they will stop the Ukrainians. If moral is low, they get flanked, fail to heed past lessons about troop concentrations, or run out of ammo, I think they will run. This is all predicated upon Méto’s point that the Russian Air Force will absolutely slow an offensive unless the pats can provide an umbrella.
we shall see. It is certainly fascinating
My main point was that Russia has a lot of its own problems. I do not mean to diminish Ukraine supply issues, or their issues of physical exhaustion. However it does not seem to be well understood how truly effed up Russian society is, nor how truly incompetent they have become at making much of anything themselves (for example: ball bearings). Or, after Exxon had to leave due to sanctions, finding more oil to extract. (the competent Russian operators have mostly been appropriated and devoured by Putin's kleptocracy)
One observer has advised me that If you get away from Moscow or St. Petersburg in many ways things are worse now, both economically and socially, than they were in 1990. I know it is anecdotal, but it still is an observation independent of our more normal sources.
Also, though I have little knowledge of China and even less insight, it has occurred to me that China may be acting towards Russia in much the same way we did on the farm towards the hogs. We fed them well enough for a while, but it wasn't with their long-term interests in mind.
I can't imagine that same thought hasn't occurred to Putin. But he is in a tight spot.
Perhaps this invasion of his may prove to be more detrimental to Russia's long-term interests than he ever imagined.
He should have read more authors than just Aleksandr Dugin and Ivan Ilyin.
04-29-2023, 04:48 AM
#694
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,595
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russ...Tk1ODEwOTFiMDI
Kyiv wants more Western sanctions against Russia, but there are signs that the effectiveness of the sanctions campaign is nearing its limits. In early March, the European Union issued its 10th package of sanctions against Russia, but various European firms are still finding ways to do business with the country. The most important example concerns oil. Europe continues to buy Russian oil, only it’s doing it through middlemen like India, which is exporting 360,000 barrels per day to the Continent.
Even the International Monetary Fund has said that, after a sharp fall in the second quarter of 2022, Russia’s economy managed to recover in the second half of the year. This suggests the Russian economy is weathering sanctions better than most observers expected
Even the International Monetary Fund has said that, after a sharp fall in the second quarter of 2022, Russia’s economy managed to recover in the second half of the year. This suggests the Russian economy is weathering sanctions better than most observers expected
05-02-2023, 10:06 AM
#696
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,293
Originally Posted by METO Guido
Well??? ???
US military intelligence assessment is that russian attempts for bahkmut has failed. 100k casualties. 80k wouned, 20k KIA. Half the KIA are wagner. Ukraninians still have operational LOCs into bahkmut.
russians are launching airstrikes but about 80% are being intercepted now by IADs.
Russian command structure is in complete disarray. (Too many positions have been changed to list), but suffice to say that the russians do not at this moment have a clear military leader.
ukranians are poised to go on the offensive (a ploy?, a strategic move to force the russians to set a defensive line and relieve pressure? I have no idea and would be foolish to state anything with objectivity.)
imho we may see a limited offensive and then hopefully a truce where ukraine gives up territory, joins nato, and then russia gets put back in the box.
That work for you meto? Feeling bored?
que angry fox men that somehow feel a personal insult by all this
05-02-2023, 10:37 AM
#697
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,544
Originally Posted by Hubcapped
imho we may see a limited offensive and then hopefully a truce where ukraine gives up territory, joins nato, and then russia gets put back in the box.
That work for you meto? Feeling bored?
That work for you meto? Feeling bored?
05-02-2023, 10:56 AM
#698
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Posts: 1,293
Originally Posted by METO Guido
Even bots get bored. Yes, the TAF still indicates severe wx. You got to hope pressure to settle is working on both ends.
05-02-2023, 06:30 PM
#699
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Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,293
Correction: ISW reported on May 1 that US officials assessed that Russian forces have suffered 100,000 casualties – 80,000 wounded and 20,000 dead– in fighting for Bakhmut since January 2023 based on statements from National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.[20] National Security Council deputy spokesperson Sean Savett later clarified on May 1 that the figures account for Russian casualties throughout Ukraine since January 2023.[21]
05-03-2023, 03:29 AM
#700
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Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,417
Originally Posted by Hubcapped
i hope so. I think that if putin gets put in a corner tactically, the use of low yield battlefield nukes is certainly on the table for him. Its very scary. I do believe that ukraine still has some wiggle room before that happens. Crimea is off the table, and as long as putins forced relocation of ukranians from the border oblasts hasnt taken full effect yet, ukraine may be able to drive for a bit. 2 cents from a dumb random carbon unit that wont exist soon
Also... you cannot strictly rule out that UA may have acquired such weapons of it's own (or simply retained a handful all along)... they did mfg them for the USSR.
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