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Old 06-06-2023, 07:16 PM
  #791  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
yes indeed, but what are they to do? Just fall over? Just lay down and die? Of course they are going to fight. The very essence of humanity that spurs rampant aggression has its yang in the spirit of righteousness. I do not and would not begrudge ukraine this fight if they are of the mind to do so.

(i am not insinuating that your point is anything other than lamenting the continued horror that is about to unfold, merely expounding on it)

at face value it looks to me like russia broke the dam to make crossing the river a problem for the ukranian offensive
Whatever follows, the absence of doubt in Ukrainian sacrifice, as proven on a daily basis, is nearly impossible to believe. But there it is, plain as porridge. So I do understand Russian shock in the face of what had been initially conceived, a rout. Which doesn’t mean the worst isn’t hiding around the next corner. Wars belong only to historians. Surreal ongoing destruction in a world of universal live action coverage.Slava Ukraine https://youtu.be/QGkQ4mPiyoU
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Old 06-08-2023, 08:52 AM
  #792  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...s-war-ukraine/

An excerpt:

Western exports of key microchips and electronics that Russia needs to fuel its war machine are back to pre-invasion levels, as Moscow has ramped up efforts to circumvent sanctions, a top official said Wednesday.

“By the start of this year, Russia was able to reimport certain key categories of electronics at about pre-war levels,” Jim O’Brien, sanctions coordinator at the U.S. State Department, told POLITICO's Brussels Playbook at an ECFR event in Stockholm, referring to chips, processors and integrated circuits key to making modern weapons.

The problem, O’Brien said, is that European companies are selling to other countries, which in turn resell the materials to Russia.

Meanwhile:

The eurozone confounded previous forecasts and shrank for two consecutive quarters, figures on Thursday showed, as energy shocks, Russia's war in Ukraine, inflation, and monetary tightening gnawed at growth momentum over the winter.

Data showed the 20-nation currency area wasn't able to dodge a recession — albeit a very shallow one for now — making politicians' sense of optimism about the eurozone’s economic resilience to such challenges look premature.

GDP shrank by 0.1 percent over the first three months of 2023, according to the revised data from Eurostat, the EU's statistics office. The news was made worse by its revision of the last quarter of 2022 — to a contraction of 0.1 percent, having previously forecast 0 percent. A recession is defined as two successive quarters of contraction
https://www.politico.eu/article/euro...cal-recession/

​​​​​​​Sanctions clearly aren’t turning out to be as powerful as predicted and seem to be causing significant “blue on blue” damage.
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Old 06-10-2023, 06:20 AM
  #793  
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Poland could have been used as an operating base to carry out the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines last year, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing findings of a Germany-led investigation.

German investigators are examining why the yacht believed to have been used to carry out the sabotage deviated into Polish waters, according to the report. The investigators have been able to reconstruct the two-week journey of the the boat — the Andromeda — during the operation, the newspaper said.

The investigators established that the yacht had entered Polish waters by looking into the Andromeda’s radio and navigation equipment, satellite and mobile phones, as well as Gmail accounts, the WSJ saidThe report comes after the Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Western intelligence agencies were aware of a Ukraine-backed plan to damage the Nord Stream pipelines three months before the blasts took place. The allegations were promptly dismissed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Bild and POLITICO Europe, both of which belong to the Axel Springer group.

“I didn’t know anything, 100 percent,” Zelenskyy said. “I said, 'Show us proof. If our military is supposed to have done this, show us proof.'”

The Kremlin, meanwhile, said the Washington Post report raised suspicion of "an Anglo-Saxon involvement" in the pipeline blasts.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream links, which were designed to carry as much as 110 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Russia to Germany, took place in September 2022, just five months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The German investigators also came to the conclusion that the substance used in the act of sabotage was HMX, an explosive typically used for disrupting subsea infrastructure, according to Saturday's Wall Street Journal report.

The blasts occurred in the economic zones of Sweden and Denmark, which prompted separate investigations by Sweden, Denmark and Germany. So far, however, countries had struggled to identify who was behind the attack.

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Old 06-10-2023, 07:43 AM
  #794  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Isaiah Berlin once wrote something to the effect 'knowing a lot of History is not the same as having a sense of History'.

Regarding your copied and posted article by WSJ:
So?
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Old 06-10-2023, 07:47 AM
  #795  
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Originally Posted by MaxQ View Post
Isaiah Berlin once wrote something to the effect 'knowing a lot of History is not the same as having a sense of History'.

Regarding your copied and posted article by WSJ:
So?
The subject of the thread is the Ukraine War. Do you not think the article is RELEVANT to that subject?
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Old 06-10-2023, 10:53 AM
  #796  
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Nordstream is just a sideshow, really only interesting because it's mysterious and covert.

Most likely it was a RU false flag, or possible UA extremists who got off their leash.

Probably not UA government since it was not in their best interest. Unless you want to argue that UA did a double-false flag to make it look like a RU false flag.

If anybody seriously thought UA did it, then it would be significant since UA should not be sabotaging infrastructure belonging to their allies and supporters.

If you really want to dive into the world of mirrors, you could postulate that some western government asked UA to take out the pipeline, to ensure that home political pressure didn't force them to restart operations.
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Old 06-10-2023, 11:49 AM
  #797  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Nordstream is just a sideshow, really only interesting because it's mysterious and covert.

Most likely it was a RU false flag, or possible UA extremists who got off their leash.

Probably not UA government since it was not in their best interest. Unless you want to argue that UA did a double-false flag to make it look like a RU false flag.

If anybody seriously thought UA did it, then it would be significant since UA should not be sabotaging infrastructure belonging to their allies and supporters.

If you really want to dive into the world of mirrors, you could postulate that some western government asked UA to take out the pipeline, to ensure that home political pressure didn't force them to restart operations.
Everything is a sideshow except for the lesson learned: that if you really want to be a player you need to have nukes - if only for the deterrent effect. Clearly, a lot of “deplorable” nations like Iran and North Korea are going to take that to heart. Even semi-deplorable nations like Saudi Arabia (been there, done that, got the T-shirt and parts of its culture are extremely deplorable) are now going to be moving in that direction IMHO and that of others.

https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-rec...proliferation/

https://www.hudson.org/arms-control-...-richard-weitz

https://www.semafor.com/article/06/0...clear-talks-us
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Old 06-10-2023, 02:04 PM
  #798  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Everything is a sideshow except for the lesson learned: that if you really want to be a player you need to have nukes - if only for the deterrent effect. Clearly, a lot of “deplorable” nations like Iran and North Korea are going to take that to heart. Even semi-deplorable nations like Saudi Arabia (been there, done that, got the T-shirt and parts of its culture are extremely deplorable) are now going to be moving in that direction IMHO and that of others.

https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-rec...proliferation/

https://www.hudson.org/arms-control-...-richard-weitz

https://www.semafor.com/article/06/0...clear-talks-us
SA chooses not to have nukes. They have also plausibly arranged to acquire nukes very quickly if they ever need them. Fairly rational approach IMHO. The Kingdom is a relatively responsible member of the global community, even if we don't like their own internal behavior vis a vis human rights. They don't need nukes to oppress their own dissidents, women, etc.

But yes, rogue regimes have learned that nukes enable their behavior. But there are plenty of marginal regimes which have made the calculus that pursuing nukes is too dangerous... they become targets for overt sanctions by the world order and also covert (and frequently lethal) sanctions by their worried neighbors.

If you don't intend to actually invade anyone, then you can get away will all manner of misdeeds within your own borders without a nuclear umbrella.
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Old 06-10-2023, 05:24 PM
  #799  
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This video is humorous in tone but generally sums up accurately what we seem to have learned about RU military capes and problems. It checks with what I've heard from much more serious sources:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nel-xVJQuV4
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Old 06-10-2023, 06:57 PM
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Z has announced that the counter-offensive is on. No deets or scope provided...

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/10/11815...unteroffensive
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