I am conducting an updated qualitative survey with the intent of determining the general rate of pilot acceptability for single pilot operations in commercial airline and cargo operations. I do not endorse the idea of single pilot operations personally which makes me biased towards the pilot and union side of this debate, but am seeking to gather as much raw data from professional pilots to assist with research in the field in the most unbiased way possible. "Single pilot operations" in this survey are defined as integrating near-future internal/external resources such as advanced onboard AI and ground support assistance for the single pilot, but not an immidiate elimination of 2 pilots in current aircraft.

I will ask a series of 5 questions and those that wish to make their voices heard will reply with a number correlating with their answer. (1 being least comfortable or least likely, 10 being most):


1. On a scale of 1-10 assuming single pilot resources are integrated, how comforable would you be flying single pilot in a short haul/domestic narrowbody or regional commercial jet (either cargo or airline)?

2. On a scale of 1-10 assuming single pilot resources are integrated, how comfortable are you flying single pilot in a long haul international widebody commercial jet (either cargo or airline)?

3. On a scale of 1-10, if it does not affect your job or future long-term career prospects, how likely would you be to accept this operational change without signifigant pushback?

4. On a scale of 1-10 assuming single pilot resources are integrated, how likely do you percieve a major accident rate increase as a direct result of this technology?

5. On a scale of 1-10 assuming single pilot resources are integrated, how likely do you percieve an increase in safety as a direct result of this?


Acceptable answer format:

1. #
2. #
3. #
4. #

(Additional clarifying comments may be listed below this)

 

1. 1
2. 1
3. 1
4. 1
5. 1

My view has nothing to do with what a union wants and nothing to do with job security. As a professional who has been doing this for a very long time, reduction in the flight crew below the current complement of two is god damn stupid, and unsafe. I don't care how "integrated" one imagines it to be.

If you haven't experiencied GPS spoofing yet, or any number of possible circumstances which necessitate pilot judgement and a second crewmember, then perhaps a computer in place of a second pilot, however hair-brained and idiotic, sounds like a good idea. It isn't. It's a very bad idea, generally driven by economics, which are a very poor reason to pursue a course of safety in aviation.

My QRH handbook in the airplane has a litany of unannunciated emergencies for which pilot response and understanding of airplane operations, systems, etc, is crucial; these events are outside the parameters of monitored events and require direct intervention by the pilot. Some events may be unnnunciated, but may compromise flight and engine data, such as airspeed/pitot abberations. Onboard fires tend to melt wiring harnesses, causing multiple alerts, warnings, and false signals, and may require more than artificial intelligence to handle. Moreover, events such as loss of cabin pressure, with a very real threat to pilot capacity, are best faced with more than one pilot at the controls. I don't care a whit if the "integrated" computer is the backup. Two pilots do more than watch each other; division of communications, monitorying, flying, and under an increasing workload, sometimes multi-tasking (or single-tasking at a high rate, if one will) become crucial. I've flown in environments with numerous unmanned assets in close proximity, in high-threat enviroments, and my opinion of those experiences is not favorable. I have seen far too many cases in which unmanned assets were not where they were supposed to be, even in remote-piloted cases, at such a high frequency as to destroy any confidence in replacing a pilot with autonomous control, assistance, or "artificial intelligence," regardless of how "integrated," one imagines them to be.

Ultimately, when that aircraft is "spoofed" and all on board navigation equipment and sensors tell one that the aircraft is 300 nm away, it takes a knowledgeable, experienced pilot up front to operate safely, not a computer that's receiving the spoofed, spurious "integrated" signals.

A big hell NO for replacing a pilot in a two-pilot cockpit with an "integrated" artificial intelligence.

As for number 4, how likely do I perceive an increase in the mishap rate, it's a ridiculous question. One does not fire a rifle down mainstreet and when nobody gets hit or killed, assert that firing a rifle down mainstreet is a safe endeavor. If the metric is that nobody dies, or that the airplane doesn't crash, or that a mishap doesn't occur, it's a bull **** metric. Do better. If safety is compromised, it doesn't matter that it doesn't actually result in a fatality, crash, accident, incident, or mishap. What matters is that safety is compromised. Don't do that.

 

This is the stupidest survey I have ever seen. You might as well go ask pigs about their opinion of bacon, it would be about as unbiased.

 

My wife says I'm a pig.

I like bacon.

 

Nothing against you, pigs, or bacon, but it's still a fatally biased survey to draw any useful information from...😉

 

I honestly don’t think the industry will ever go that route, despite what some in the industry say. There will be tremendous pushback. You will hear lots of people, even pilots say that “it’s gonna happen” “it’ll be here before you know it” “it’s right around the corner” “you’re kids and grandkids will never have the chance to fly professionally.” Most often though, it seems to be coming from the tech guru’s/nerds and aren’t people who are actually pilots that understand the gravity of trying to implement such a thing in such a safety-sensitive industry. There’s just way too much at stake with so many peoples lives in aviation. Johnburke said it very well above.

Again, I don’t think the single pilot concept is ever going to materialize. Not in 121 civilian airline ops. But let’s just say, a pure hypothetical here, that it did manage to get to that point, and there was one airline brave enough to take that leap of faith, and purchase them. As well as a manufacturer brave enough to take on the risk of designing, building, and testing one. What’s gonna happen when things ‘go south,’ and they start having fatal accidents. Btw, there will be accidents. And now all of a sudden it gets spun up in the media that maybe these new planes that only have 1 pilot aren’t safe??? The fear factor will ramp up in a lot of people. Airlines will take a massive hit, and may likely never recover from it. It will be extremely difficult for airlines and manufacturers to ‘back peddle’ their way out of that, and frantically trying to abandon the single pilot concept and go back to sticking to what we do best: 2 pilot airplanes.

What about when the one and only pilot upfront is incapacitated for whatever reason? What then? Pilot incapacitations, although rare thankfully, can and do happen. There have been some that have happened in recent years, including one at my regional in 2022. It was the captain who went incapacitated and the poor FO, who was just off of initial operating experience, was now in charge of bringing the airplane back down to the ground safely. He also had to shoot an approach in the weather, down to minimums, as well. I believe if I’m not mistaken, he had to do a CAT II ILS since the weather was that low that day. This kid was brand new, fresh out of training, and was now responsible for everyone on board. Now imagine if that second pilot wasn’t there. Yea, it’s quite scary to even think about it. Not a good situation you want to be in while your sitting in the back in 25C knowing that your plane is going down because there was only 1 pilot and he’s now gone, and nobody can get into the cockpit to ‘save the day.’ That would a very hard and scary thing for a commuting or deadheading pilot in the back that can’t get into the flight deck in that situation.

There’s also the situation of suicidal pilots that will try to push the airplane into the ground, taking everyone with them. They can easily do that, with absolutely no resistance from anyone. Having a second pilot will always serve as a safeguard against that. Pilot suicide accidents have happened as well, although rare. Egypt air 990, and Germanwings 9525 are 2 that come to mind. I’m sure there have been others as well, just can’t remember off top of my head.

The other thing to mention, is you’re gonna have to come up with a very creative way to provide training and mentorship to the single pilot that will be responsible for flying the airplane. Right now, with all airlines flying with 2 pilots, there is mentorship, training, and education that is ongoing for the second in command. Eventually they will become a captain, but before they can do that, they have to obtain a wealth of knowledge and experience to be in command. The FAA stipulates that at the minimum, the bare minimum, they need to have at least 1,000 hours in part 121 as a second in command, before they can even move to the left seat to be a captain. There are other ways to get the hours and experience to qualify as a captain in 121, but most pilots get that experience in the right seat of the carrier they’re currently flying with, and then move to the left seat when they hit 1,000. So, the trillion dollar question here is, how in the heck
are airlines going to mentor their pilots to be competent, capable, SAFE captains from the get-go, if all you have in the fleet are single pilot planes? You could argue that it will be a gradual transition to all single pilot fleets. That same pilot could go get the necessary experience sitting right seat in a 2 pilot plane first, then throw him into the single pilot type. Ok. But what about when the airlines all eventually transition to all single pilot fleets? This is the thing that hardly ANYONE talks about when they like to talk up the single pilot airliner concept. The ones who talk about are only concerned about economics and not safety. They totally misunderstood the seriousness of having EXPERIENCE on the flight deck. There is no way you are going to provide the same level of education, training and mentorship to a pilot flying a single pilot airliner, as we currently do and have been doing for many, many decades to the second in command in 2 pilot airplanes.