*Big Drill*
06-23-2008 | 09:05 AM
#61
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From: 767 FO
So far demand has dropped this year, but the price at the pump at least has stayed the same...but yes, if our demand dropped 25% in one year, prices would probably come down (we use 1/4 of the earth's produced daily oil). Our economy would take a dump as a result, though, lot of lost jobs, so it wouldn't matter if gas was cheap again, most wouldn't be able to afford it anyway.
06-23-2008 | 10:34 AM
#62
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From: CFI, MEI
Impossible for a thread like this to stay away from politics. 67% of americans are now in favor of drilling and / or exploration if it will bring down price (heard on the news anyway). Importantly, however, the oil companies currently have drilling rights on 91 million acres of federal land that they currently are not using. Haven't heard the why to that part. But, I did hear a Senator claim that an oil CEO recently testified that if oil prices were reflective of supply/demand curve, then oil would be 55 per barrel.
06-23-2008 | 10:51 AM
#63
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From: CFI, MEI
I'm hearing lots of pretty ideas/theories here about how additional drilling is a solution, but no data. The fundamental question is how is additional drilling, particularly off-shore, going to offset price? How?
Here's what the politicians/analysts on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc., aren't telling you. Twenty years ago in this country your average drilling rig/platform was retired by age 25. Today, in the United States, your average rig/platform is 27 years old. So, our rigs our extremely old, even if there was a dramatic amount of oil in the OCS (That's Outer Continental Shelf for those not in oil), we won't be able to produce rigs fast enough to offer up the sort of extraction/production that we need to sustain our consumption here in the U.S.
...And consumption is our primary undoing here. World oil production has flattened out @ 85 million bbl/day back in 2005. In other words, we haven't been able to produce any more than that since, despite our best global exploration/production efforts. In the U.S., we consume 21 million bbl/day, that's 1/4 of the world's oil production. We're 5 percent of the world's population. See the problem?
Now here's where it gets real interesting. The politicians should have known better, because a lot of people who were dismissed as kooks years ago told 'em this would happen. But politicians don't take measures to mitigate future problems; They are fundamentally reactionary creatures. This is exactly what's going on right now. McCain, as an example, was always staunchly opposed to offshore drilling by our coasts...now he's running in a presidential election, he's got 4-5 dollar fuel, people are nervous. Now he wants offshore drilling, not because it's the prudent thing to do, but because it gets him votes. And, of course, your average American voter falls for it because their IQ is noticeably on the left side of the bell-curve.
So, lets assume, drilling rigs and platforms just magically appear over night. We drill the OCS extensively. This effort will sustain our current oil consumption here in the U.S. for another 10 years, that's it. I'll be 40 years old then...dealing w/ the same problem...again. More drilling, obviously, delays the inevitable. I'd rather we focus on a more comprehensive solution to our energy situation so we don't have to keep re-visiting the same problems over and over again.
The analysts on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, and the politicians of course, are so far behind on the energy crisis we're facing, it's not even funny. They're all out to lunch in my view. We will pay for their lack of leadership/initiative.
Here's what the politicians/analysts on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc., aren't telling you. Twenty years ago in this country your average drilling rig/platform was retired by age 25. Today, in the United States, your average rig/platform is 27 years old. So, our rigs our extremely old, even if there was a dramatic amount of oil in the OCS (That's Outer Continental Shelf for those not in oil), we won't be able to produce rigs fast enough to offer up the sort of extraction/production that we need to sustain our consumption here in the U.S.
...And consumption is our primary undoing here. World oil production has flattened out @ 85 million bbl/day back in 2005. In other words, we haven't been able to produce any more than that since, despite our best global exploration/production efforts. In the U.S., we consume 21 million bbl/day, that's 1/4 of the world's oil production. We're 5 percent of the world's population. See the problem?
Now here's where it gets real interesting. The politicians should have known better, because a lot of people who were dismissed as kooks years ago told 'em this would happen. But politicians don't take measures to mitigate future problems; They are fundamentally reactionary creatures. This is exactly what's going on right now. McCain, as an example, was always staunchly opposed to offshore drilling by our coasts...now he's running in a presidential election, he's got 4-5 dollar fuel, people are nervous. Now he wants offshore drilling, not because it's the prudent thing to do, but because it gets him votes. And, of course, your average American voter falls for it because their IQ is noticeably on the left side of the bell-curve.
So, lets assume, drilling rigs and platforms just magically appear over night. We drill the OCS extensively. This effort will sustain our current oil consumption here in the U.S. for another 10 years, that's it. I'll be 40 years old then...dealing w/ the same problem...again. More drilling, obviously, delays the inevitable. I'd rather we focus on a more comprehensive solution to our energy situation so we don't have to keep re-visiting the same problems over and over again.
The analysts on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, and the politicians of course, are so far behind on the energy crisis we're facing, it's not even funny. They're all out to lunch in my view. We will pay for their lack of leadership/initiative.
06-23-2008 | 10:55 AM
#64
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From: CFI, MEI
All I'm saying is that the U.S. peaked at about 10.5 million bbl/oil a day back in 1970 or so. Preceding this peak in production, there was also a peak in discoveries, this included ANWR, also known as the North Slope of Alaska. Right now were pumping about 5 million bbl/day here in the U.S. domestically. We can drill/pump Alaska and the OCS like a first-rate pornstar, we'll never match the 10.5 million bbl/day we saw back in '70.
I think the notion that people have here is that excess drilling will either bring prices back down, or keep current prices flat. That just won't happen. Barring a massive economic recession/depression, even w/ supplemental drilling here domestically, prices should continue to rise. I'm obviously a proponent of peak oil, so I guess I have a bit of a bias here. I do think peak oil provides the best explanation for what we're seeing right now w/ oil.
I think the notion that people have here is that excess drilling will either bring prices back down, or keep current prices flat. That just won't happen. Barring a massive economic recession/depression, even w/ supplemental drilling here domestically, prices should continue to rise. I'm obviously a proponent of peak oil, so I guess I have a bit of a bias here. I do think peak oil provides the best explanation for what we're seeing right now w/ oil.
