Airline Pilot Central Forums - is there ever gonna be a pilot shortage

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)

- Hangar Talk (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/hangar-talk/)

- - is there ever gonna be a pilot shortage (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/hangar-talk/50042-there-ever-gonna-pilot-shortage.html)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop (Post 799181)

Nope. There will never be a shortage of pilots.

If you added "...for long", I'd agree with you 100%. Shortages and surpluses correct themselves over time and, therefore, are always temporary in nature.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wrxpilot (Post 799148)

Ok, so what have YOU done to help the profession? I see you fly a Saab... Are you a regional airline pilot? Did you accept a food stamp salary as an F/O when you started?

Are you one of those pilots that blame new hires for taking a food stamp paying job yet don't say anything to the pilots that actually negotiated that food stamp pay? It's not a new hire problem unless it's a start up without a negotiated contract.

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpar80 (Post 799122)

With the projected retirements, flight schools closing doors and the 1500 TT rule in place. Will this ever happen?

What constitutes a shortage in your mind? Then has there ever been one?

I've been hearing about this coming shortage since I was in high school and have yet to see it. I've seen ups and downs in hiring but never a shortage of pilots.

If you can be happy making 60-70K (Reg. CA) for the top of your career after your education investments, jump in. If you think you will have a good chance of 100K + for the majority of your career, find something else because there's a good chance it will not happen. If you want to fly and can live on 60K and be happy with that for your career then it's a good job I think. Eventually you will have 15 days off/month and make a decent salary (though for what we do and what is put into it, it's not enough IMO).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric Stratton (Post 799216)

+1...I can't stand it when those who've been in the profession for years and negotiated and voted on the contracts that put us where we are complain and blame those coming in after them. Whether it's the majors blaming regionals for flying so many RJs at their pay scale or regional guys blaming new hires for accepting crappy wages or getting into this profession to begin with.

Quote:

Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 799161)

The law profession is also going though a rationalization as well.

It never will be like driving a bus. Do not sell yourself short. I do not think I bus driver could land nor take off a jet on a clear day with everything working much less do it on a cruddy day with a major or minor malfunction. What we do is a profession. It takes brains and skills. Skills that are not easily taught. Like a lawyer or surgeon, it is easy to put on the lab coat and preform the everyday procedures, but it takes time and honing of those skills and hand eye coordination to perfect it.

For that matter I doubt a pilot could weave a bus in and out of traffic and hit all the stops on the first day either. However give each a little training and they could do each others job just fine.

Skyhigh

The age 65 rule ended the chance of a massive retirement of Vietnam era pilots. So no pilot shortage.

Now there are what 10k pilots on the street? So that will stop any future pilot shortage at least short term.

Plus how fragile our career is so obvious looking at the ash cloud problem. One natural disaster and airlines are loosing money like it is going out of style.

The gradual decline in aviation will match the number of people who want to become pilots. There will be no shortage.

There may actually be a pilot shortage at one point. It won't be at the majors though, it will be again at the regionals. The question is whether or not pilots will be able to capitalize off that shortage. I think management's answer will be first to increase the ease of transition to the mainline. Look at compass, the flow has attracted pilots with 5000+ hrs 121 experience to regional wages.

In other words, with scope relief the regionals have and will reap all the benefits of a pilot shortage. They will still put a whipsaw on lowering mainline salaries.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkyHigh (Post 799227)

Have you ever driven a bus?

Give most people training and they can do just about anything.

Quote:

Originally Posted by crabinow16 (Post 799189)

IMO there will be a shortage whether or not it is going to be 10 years down the road or in 3 years is another matter. Witht he new qual's and the industry down the drain. The minute the furloughed pilots have all been called back and the flow starts again I don't believe that there will be enough pilots with the required quals. I think if they implemented 1500TTat a time where people were learning to fly, Night cargo carriers were still going strong and there was a large demand for aviation then it wouldn't be an issue. As of right now theough nto many people are going to be able to make the mins by flight instructing and other such ways.

Also for all of you who have been saying go do something else with your life...I have three things for you.

1) My dream has always been to be an airline pilot. I think it would be the greatest job in the world. If you do not believe that it is so and You are telling people to go do other things with their life I personally believe that you should jsut pack it in. I am sure that there is some furloughed guy out there who would love to go back to work.

2) For those of us with dreams of being a pro pilot I am not going to let an extremly cynical person who has the job I want tell me that I should not pursue my dream cause its not worht it in the end...I don't see them leaving the profession

3) To reitierate. If you are unhappy with your job some one else out there would probably love to have it. Why not let them.

I hate UND/Purdue/Riddle students that think like this. I have been commuting to short call reserve in EWR for 1.5 years for $35k a year and this guy is going to tell me if I am tired of the job to just quit because he would gladly do my job for 50% less. How about you get out of my career so the big boys can get a decent contract once again. We all love flying too just like you do, only difference is we have gotten over the "honeymoon" stage and see this job for what it really is. You don't even know how to spell, I suggest you work on some remedial spelling skills at Purdue before you start to preach to professionals on what we should be doing. We need to stop hiring guys from these collegiate aviation programs.

Here is a suggestion for you: You are about to get the most worthless degree in the history of mankind, change your major immediately and give yourself a backup chance at a decent career.