is there ever gonna be a pilot shortage
 

With the projected retirements, flight schools closing doors and the 1500 TT rule in place. Will this ever happen?

Maybe. If they allow the MPL, nope.

My guess is yes, but the current surplus of furloughed and collapsed airline pilots has to dry up first so it could be another 5-10 years before the effects are felt. This projection includes the effect of another legacy collapsing and putting another 5000 to 8000 pilots on the street and the subsequent negative impact on their feeder airlines.

While some will interject that it's not a "pilot shortage", just a shortage of pilots willing to work for $20,000/year, the results are the same.

The post-Colgan hearing changes will have an interesting effect on MPL.

I know, and that is a good thing. Liability is a interesting animal. It will be interesting to see if they will be able to attach liability to CAL for that too. If they do and if it hits a certain level the way we see this industry will change.

Agreed. It's a game changer. While the ATA/RAA and other business interests (i.e., pilot factories) have already watered down the proposed changes, it seems that MPL, for now, will be dead in the water. Maybe in 10-15 years it will change back.

Yelling and colors doesn't make a point of view true. The POV stands by its own merits.

Ok, so what have YOU done to help the profession? I see you fly a Saab... Are you a regional airline pilot? Did you accept a food stamp salary as an F/O when you started?

No.... with the flood of pilots over the past 15 years and the lowering of hiring standards, as well as automation of airplanes, it's become the new Bus Driver job.. and there has been a lot more applicants to drive a bus than there are jobs for a long time.. Give up now, while you're young and go to law school.