Forecasted growth of GA
02-28-2011, 06:51 AM
#1
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Forecasted growth of GA
Question: Does the membership of APC agree with the assessment of the FAA concerning the slow, but steady, growth of General Aviation in the coming years?
USMCFLYR
The FAA forecasts that the general aviation (GA) fleet will increase over the next 20 years, but at a modest annual rate of 0.9 percent. That’s according to data presented at the FAA’s 36th Annual Aviation Forecast Conference held Feb. 15-16, 2011. The growth rate for piston-powered aircraft is expected to decrease in the near term (due in part to the attrition caused by the FAA’s ongoing re-registration process) but is projected to pick up again after 2018.
GA activity is forecasted to follow a similar pattern to the fleet size, decreasing 3.1 percent in 2011, but then picking up by an average of 1 percent a year to 32.9 million operations in 2031. The forecast also projected the number of active GA pilots to increase by 42,000 by 2031.
A bright spot for GA is continued growth of the light-sport market, which is expected to see a 5.4 percent increase in hours flown per year and have 12,850 sport pilots certified by 2031. The forecast data also projects that the light-sport aircraft fleet size will more than double by 2031 to 13,870 aircraft. For more information about the FAA forecast, go to http://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=12439.
GA activity is forecasted to follow a similar pattern to the fleet size, decreasing 3.1 percent in 2011, but then picking up by an average of 1 percent a year to 32.9 million operations in 2031. The forecast also projected the number of active GA pilots to increase by 42,000 by 2031.
A bright spot for GA is continued growth of the light-sport market, which is expected to see a 5.4 percent increase in hours flown per year and have 12,850 sport pilots certified by 2031. The forecast data also projects that the light-sport aircraft fleet size will more than double by 2031 to 13,870 aircraft. For more information about the FAA forecast, go to http://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=12439.
02-28-2011, 06:56 AM
#2
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Hope so
I for one certainly hope so. Light sport especially needs to save the day. At my local airport the majority of the hobby pilots are all old timers who are starting to drop off in droves. In ten years the airport will be a ghost town unless the next generation is encouraged to join in.
Skyhigh
Skyhigh
02-28-2011, 07:05 AM
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I'm not a huge fan of statistics and believe that any information can be manipulated to justify one's requirements. I am curious where they get such expectations as "The forecast also projected the number of active GA pilots to increase by 42,000 by 2031."
The 'Fact Sheet' on GA provides no reasoning behind the numbers.
USMCFLYR
The 'Fact Sheet' on GA provides no reasoning behind the numbers.
USMCFLYR
02-28-2011, 07:50 AM
#4
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Originally Posted by USMCFLYR
I'm not a huge fan of statistics and believe that any information can be manipulated to justify one's requirements. I am curious where they get such expectations as "The forecast also projected the number of active GA pilots to increase by 42,000 by 2031."
The 'Fact Sheet' on GA provides no reasoning behind the numbers.
USMCFLYR
The 'Fact Sheet' on GA provides no reasoning behind the numbers.
USMCFLYR
02-28-2011, 08:29 AM
#6
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Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Well this is odd. It seems that we have switched sides for the moment. This time it is I that holds the optimistic and hopeful position. Strange indeed. 
Skyhigh
Skyhigh
02-28-2011, 08:35 AM
#7
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I think the FAA is being overly opstomistic. I see just the opposite happening. You can make statistics look like whatever you want. With the amount of pilots medicaling out due to old age, and the amount of new starts with PPL's, all areas, in my opnion, are shrinking. What it looks like those statisics say to me is "we expecting to see 42,000 new certificates by 2031." What about those who simply (I hate to sound morbid) die. More pilots are falling away from the ranks it seems than are stepping into the ranks.
Bottom line, statistics reflect whatever you want them to. I'm sure someone could come up with a statistic that shows how rising gas prices are good for an economy.
Bottom line, statistics reflect whatever you want them to. I'm sure someone could come up with a statistic that shows how rising gas prices are good for an economy.
02-28-2011, 08:46 AM
#8
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I went to the Northwest Aviation Conference near Seattle this weekend and it was all old white men there (complete with the beards and unabomber look).
The youngest folks there were obviously the FAA controllers (and were actually very nice, as opposed to the crum bum old timers whining about everything).
What a sad state aviation is in.
The youngest folks there were obviously the FAA controllers (and were actually very nice, as opposed to the crum bum old timers whining about everything).
What a sad state aviation is in.
02-28-2011, 08:58 AM
#9
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Originally Posted by brianb
Exactly. Are costs going to go down anytime in the near future? Not likely. Do you foresee oil becoming stable? Forget it. Do you think regulation will become LESS cumbersome? Dream on. I am sorry to say that General Aviation is on and will continue a downward for some time to come. As far as a career in the industry, right now, it don't look promising.
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Well this is odd. It seems that we have switched sides for the moment. This time it is I that holds the optimistic and hopeful position. Strange indeed.
Skyhigh
Skyhigh
brianb has always hd a pessimistic view of the industry, as have I, thus one reason why I have decided against a career in the airlines.
The difference has always been that he and I have been able to see BOTH sides of the equation
But yes - your optimistic view of the future of GA is heartening
See....there can be middle ground!
USMCFLYR
02-28-2011, 09:25 AM
#10
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Originally Posted by USMCFLYR
Not really Skyhigh.
brianb has always hd a pessimistic view of the industry, as have I, thus one reason why I have decided against a career in the airlines.
The difference has always been that he and I have been able to see BOTH sides of the equation
But yes - your optimistic view of the future of GA is heartening
See....there can be middle ground!
USMCFLYR
brianb has always hd a pessimistic view of the industry, as have I, thus one reason why I have decided against a career in the airlines.
The difference has always been that he and I have been able to see BOTH sides of the equation
But yes - your optimistic view of the future of GA is heartening
See....there can be middle ground!
USMCFLYR
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