This is the big question here right now. Give us your thoughts.

 

I don’t work there but I have friends that do, and they are totally befuddled by what angle lake is doing. If there is a rational plan of ANY kind, they haven’t figured it out yet. Perhaps neither has management

 

Maybe you could rephrase this as an actual question. Did you mean to ask, "What is the company's long-term plan for the Q400?".

Based on what I heard in the last "Pilot Chat" conference call, our managers expect the Q400's to be around for at least another five years. By the end of 2020, I'd expect to see at least 30 E175's and around 30 Q400's at Horizon. If I recall correctly, we currently have about 38 Q400's on the property - meaning that the number of Q400 lines will shrink. We seem to be somewhat overstaffed on the Q400 FO side, but less well-staffed on the captain side. A lot of the guys and gals getting ready to upgrade are holding off for the base they want, or upgrading in the Embraer.

 

In the last pilot chat they were all over the board on the Q. From 2 years to 5 years, to “it’ll be here a while”. Q Lines are steadily shrinking in SEA, GEG, and MFR. slight increase in BOI and PDX. Supposedly more Q flying this summer but it sure doesn’t feel like it. Always fun trying to make career decisions with no information. The uncertainty with the Q seems to be helping my decision making for upgrade.

 

For all new hire pilots coming to QX DONT CHOOSE THE Q400. Unless you like sitting reserve forever of course. Its really not fun at all watching new hire pilots on the jet that are 6-8 months junior to you get lines with little to no reserve after OE.

 

Went down to only 10 anticipated lines in GEG for next month and 25 or so FO’s. Agree that it really isn’t any fun watching the new hires on the jet get a line, nice trips that actually equate to some block time and some leftover first class meals while many Q FO’s can’t hold a line after a year. It really is slow going if you are trying to build time to upgrade.

And the real question I believe is do they have base changes in store for the Q? Can’t imagine it makes much sense to staff 30 airplanes from 5 bases.....

 

The plan they've stuck with the longest has been that we're keeping 30 Q's, but since we're apparently keeping a couple of extra airframes (I think they said 3) to staff some extra flying this summer, I'm not sure how long it'll take to draw down to that number.

Much of the remaining of the Q400 fleet has a lot of life left on it (probably another 10 years), and unless Alaska wants to completely give up on some of the cities like PUW, EAT, YYJ, ALW etc... where they currently have a virtual monopoly, I can't see them completely completely scrapping the Q's for at least a few years.

There have also been reports that we're (until AAG fires replaces their current QX puppets and everything changes again) actually going to get new EFB's on the Q400 fleet in a few years, so that seems to point to the airplanes hanging around a while longer.

All that said, the Q400 fleet is shrinking, so it makes zero sense for new hires to take the airplane right now, especially in a base like BOI that's stupidly top-heavy and doesn't have shiny jets to draw some of the senior captains away.

 

The funniest part is my only Q400 classmate to see a line so far was a guy junior to me overall and he’s in Boise. He’s seen a line twice now. Out of all the people and all the bases, that’s what I least expected haha. It’s probably not indicative of anything, it’s just ironic.

 

I'm Portland-based. The bid packet includes a lot of Boise, Spokane, and Medford overnights. Your comment made me curious, so I did a little more digging. Here's the numbers:

- About one third of the Portland trips include at least one overnight in BOI, GEG, or MFR.
- 17 in Boise.
- 46 in Spokane (!).
- 21 in Medford.

Some of the pairings have more than one overnight in those bases.

My personal opinion: The Q400 will be around for a while, but I'm not sure about some of our bases. The company's original justification for opening Boise, Medford, and Spokane was to "make the trips more efficient" (management speak for saving money on hotels and per diem).

Maybe someone could take a look at the pairings out of Seattle and see if they have a large number of layovers in Boise, Spokane, and Medford. I know that some of the jet crews are overnighting in Spokane and Boise.

 

There haven’t been BOI overnights on the jet for a while. But lots of Spokane overnights. A ramper told me one night they had 5 jets RON that night.