I can't say I agree.

So what happens when the labor market reaches equilibrium, and the labor shortage is no longer the driving factor in cost? As a wholly owned they can, and have, complete control over QX and the people that sit across the negotiating table with IBT. These new rates can go backwards (and they have). In fact, QX once had the highest 76-jet rates in the industry until 2016 (for a regional). Whereas if they decide to just contract with Mesa or Skywest, or both, the costs there are determined by market rates largely beyond their control. In other words, Delta, UA, and AA can set the going rate for FFD contracts (as they do now). I highly doubt that Minicucci and the board are that short sighted. Moreover, if QX were to be sold off to another CPA carrier the most valuable resources wouldn't likely remain at 00, or wherever. Sure, maybe they'd pick up another 33 aircraft. Now staff them. Out of 750+ pilots at QX perhaps 450 might stick around long enough to cause a training pipeline log jam and then boogie literally anywhere else within 2-3 years.

 

Or…
Since Skywest can’t begin to stop the bleed and staff their own aircraft, maybe the Alaska flying goes back to Horizon? Good time to retrieve that flying with the Q retiring and pilots transitioning to the E jet. Skywest is in desperate need to drop a contract right now with their lack of labor resources and the Alaska contract makes the most sense.

 

12 years….. And as of today 38 Aircraft..

 

Or… Skywest drops the Alaska flying since they don’t have the manpower and the decommissioning of the Q drivers will cover it. Skywest wants nothing to do with a union and they can’t begin to fix their own bleed. Dropping the Alaska stuff would at least give them the ability to cover their other contracts.

 

They're probably going to have to drop something eventually. They're three times as large as they were when I started, so they can still shrink considerably and be just fine, but something will have to give along the way. I have no idea how the AS FFD compares to other legacy FFD from OO's perspective. I do recall when the AS flying started that there was a lot of emphasis on quality and customer experience... that was never then case for big three FFD, for those it was just "try to remember what color paint you're in when you make announcements".

 

That will be up to Skywest, who they drop.

Alternatively they might try to negotiate reductions across all of the various FFD, retain the diversity and not pizz anyone off. The legacies understand what's going on, they can't really be mad at the regionals.

 

Remember CRJ700 that was sold to OO back in the day? so everything its possible

 

That's not quite right. When the CRJs were sub-leased to 00 QX was bringing in Q400 for a single fleet type. This is a subtly different situation. In this case, like before, QX is going toward a single fleet type, but unlike before, QX isn't sub-leasing the eliminated feet type to another CPA carrier.

It is possible future aircraft deliveries could be given to 00, but unless 00 matches it, I doubt they'll have the staffing for it.

A quick note: QX's new TA has a wage rate review that automatically matches any new 00 rate +$1.00. While that extra $1 won't impress anybody, at the least it allows any potential candidate to not rule out QX out of hand.

 

SkyWest will drop CRJ stuff before ERJ. ERJ is pretty well staffed… CRJ’s are paid off no cost to park them..

 

Maybe they are selling QX because WN and Alaska cannot merge with a WO regional riding along ?? ...hmmm.