You guys seem to forget that SKW is currently flying Air Group owned jets that once had Horizon paint on them.

We know. On that note, sorry to the OO guys out there who are harassed by some of our Captains who are salty as ****. It's misplaced anger that should be directed towards Alaska mgt.

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

I'll second this. It's a small number of people here giving us a bad name. I think the majority of the pilot group is smart enough to realize that blaming Skywest only shifts our attention from the real source of our problems.



How so? QX has felt threatened by outsourcing long before our newfound "commitment to compete." However, regardless of the way you look at the outsourcing of the CRJ's, there are some notable differences.

1. The CRJ's went to Skywest as the CRJ fleet was downsizing due to the loss of the Denver flying.
2. The jets Skywest got from us weren't brand new (I'm guessing AAG has planned all along to phase out the CRJ program with Skywest).
3. Alaska wasn't expanding their route structure with Skywest, they were just looking to save a buck by not having a handful of airplanes flown in house.

Now we're not talking about a few CRJ's, we're talking about 7, then 15, and now 45 E175's that are or could potentially be outsourced. All new airplanes that are expanding Alaska's small lift network that will very likely be on the property for a long time.

How are you Alaska guys looking at this? I can see why you guys wouldn't have cared about the CRJ outsourcing, but do you guys see all these plans to fly into the central US in E175's as a threat to your own expansion?

It's difficult for me to imagine a more ignorant statement.

Agreed!!!!!

I agree with this too.

I agree with this too.

I'll second that.

Have you guys ever voted no? Your chief pilot used to be a big part of your union. You voted in a subpar contract with mediocre pay and now you are watching midcon flying being farmed out. From your previous posts, you are a company man. I have a hard time imagining you saying anything else.

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

Flame baiting aside, what really is the opinion on the line at Alaska about this? The disparity in opinion of what AAG has planned for the future between Alaska and Horizon is quite interesting. Lots of Horizon people feel that they "deserve" this flying, but I see it at detrimental to the industry as a whole to farm out midcon flying like this to "regionals." Is that opinion shared at Alaska? Anyone over there beating the drum for scope?

51% of the pilots at Alaska Airlines inc. are yes persons.....that is why Mike thought it was an ignorant statement...improper use of a gender-specific term....our voting record speaks for itself....

Nobody at Alaska Airlines inc. can be bothered to care about this issue.....

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

The entire pilot group is ambivalent to short(ish) haul market expansion? Maybe the majority doesn't care. I'm curious what it will take for that to change. That's an awful lot of trust in a company that has gotten really into CPA's and FFD agreements in the past five years.

I'd say at least half the guys I've flow with strongly oppose Skywest getting the 175s and AAG's treatment of Horizon even in record profit times. Personally, I wish we were using the 700 to fly these routes instead of farming it out.

Is it opposition to these routes getting farmed out to Skywest or farmed out at all? The majority of the E175's on the property now and in the next five years will be replacing CRJ's and Q400's anyway so it isn't like there is monumental growth in Alaska's small lift market (though 17 over six years is still no small number), but it's the routes some of these are flying that seem like they would be cause for concern. It makes sense when the regional operator(s) fly to Seattle from Pullman...not so much from Austin.

From what I've heard it sounds like Alaska has until the end of this year to decide if they want to shut us down or not. It takes a little over a year to get a new training department all set up so if the company tries to stall things out past then I think the answer is clear that we aren't getting the flying...

Alaska Error Group is dumb but not THAT dumb, they know if they announce we aren't getting the flying the company is doomed because every junior FO and junior CA will jump ship, and they won't be able to staff the airline for an entire YEAR before the Q's get parked. It's not like any other airline can walk in and start flying Seattle to Wenatchee, Yakima, Walla Walla etc. without hemorrhaging cash in the process. It would kill Alaska's bottom line.

So we'll see what AS does, hopefully they realize how valuable we are. Or they can Comair us and spend $5 trying save $1, whatever.

I've been saying from the beginning, if Delta wanted to shut AS Down, they'd just offer the next 3 classes to anyone with QX on there resume, take 300 of 600ish over 3 months of Alaska's feed, horizon closes on Friday and Alaska folds the following Wed

Hell, they could do the same to the Alaska pilots and they'd probably bail too.

But QX pilots wouldn't think 2x because of wages....pure economics

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

They could take a QX capt and cost AAG 2 training costs.

Even if we do get the jet flying all the junior bros will be stuck on the Q, I can just imagine what a 4 day trip will be like:

PDX - SEA
SEA - PDX
PDX - GEG
GEG - PDX
PDX - SEA
SEA - PSC (or insert sh**ty overnight location here)

block time: 4 hours, 12 hour duty, 10 hour overnight

rinse and repeat

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

I'm rather content with how things are playing out. I don't know if the union is intentionally stalling, but it's feeling like a game of chicken. We are way behind on meeting their unrealistic timeline for getting a TA by the end of the year. I think he are supposed to have just finished voting (ha!). We don't even know what we are voting on, let alone when!

I don't see any possible way they could stretch this past the end of January without it being clear that they are coming here if that is their intention already, and even that is very late.

I think it would it go down like it has at RAH if they announced we're shrinking, except with no $40 carrot for sucker new-hires. Maybe 50 (less than a year SEA and PDX FOs) would bail right away and many more would widen their search from their ideal 2-4 to anywhere better than a regional. Nonetheless, they would have a consistent net loss of pilots and no way of convincing anyone other than 1500 hr CFI's living under a rock to sign up.

Alaska also has a vested interest in keeping Horizon around to enable their financial shenanigans.

The "28% more expensive than Skywest" and recent "Alaska got zero return on a billion-dollar investment in QX" claims can be made to work on paper because AAG can (and probably does) shift money around between various divisions to make things look better for investors and to give management an edge in contract negotiations.

Plus, keeping QX around (especially if we fly the jets at Q400 rates) also gives AAG ammunition to use against Skywest when their contract becomes amenable in the next few years and they try and pass on the cost of their new pilot contract to the mainline carriers.

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

If we were in a three sibling rivalry situation like PSA/Piedmont/Envoy then maybe there would be more to legitimately be worried about, but we're not so quickly and easily replaceable. This is from page one of the playbook - use us against Skywest, use Skywest against us.

What actually is happening here right now though is a game of management musical chairs, which is quite interesting.

For Horizons sake I really hope Alaska doesn't come to Penair and start giving the shorter routes to us out of PDX. We already have on CPA route for them and a lot of mileage plan routes out of ANC.

Uhh..yeah I don't think that's a concern for a myriad of reasons.

The CPA route couldn't be done by Alaska or Horizon without significant load limits (which is why Alaska stopped doing it in the -200 combis years ago), and the codeshares capture pax on routes they couldn't possibly fill with their own equipment. The big move right now towards E175's is largely triggered by competition from Delta who is now flying routes in 175's we currently do in Q's. Swapping Q's for Saabs would not be popular among passengers with competitive options.

This feels like a plug for Penair disguised as backhanded sympathy for Horizon potentially losing routes to outsourcing.

You obviously don't know him then. I could see Penair taking over previous GL eas routs though.

I'll probably give it till the end of the year and if no progress has been made I'm out. Most of my FO buddies are getting ready to bail too.

I think if no progress is made by the end of the year then that's about when the company might start getting nervous. This whole sham will have been in vain if they don't have a TA by the time they have to make it obvious they're coming here anyway. Unless of course, they send them to Skywest if we don't have a TA...

Make the call you think is best, but I don't think this charade will be over by the end of the year. However, I don't see how we could still be ****ing around with this in Q1 of next year when pilots should be bidding for training dates.

Bye Felicia

If they pull the "QX is just too expensive...we're giving the 30 175's to Skywest" card...This place is going to go down the morale toilet. It will become hostile between the work groups and management, esp towards AAG.

Time for AAG to decide if QX truly "Is Alaska"

Low morale would be the least of their worries. Good luck staffing for the rest of the year when all the junior people quit. Captains with large amounts of sick time will start using that up, every plane will be shot down for Mx, it will be bad. Horizon will shut down.

That PBP payout can't come fast enough....

That's what I meant by "openly hostile" towards management...without giving the ACP's that are reading this ammunition ;)...Hi LaMar/Ali/whoever else :D

Coincidence doesn't determine causality. :)

Anyone else hear the company is considering contracting out the 175 training, if we do get the flying? Not good.

Contract out training?
I wouldn't be surprised. The company has sat on their ass so long that they do not have the time to build up the training department to handle this. They've hacked away at the training dep. so much over the last few years that we no longer have the capability to ramp up to cover additional (E175?) training.
We have no excess/reserve capacity to cover this possibility.
Your rumor is reassuring, in a sick & twisted way. :-)

Everybody: If we don't get an E-175 announcement by Christmas, fire off the resumes!!! (As if that neeeded to be said.)
Oh, and a CRJ-900 this weekend? YGTBSM!!!

From a management perspective the logic is sound. Contract out the 175 training department so jet negotiations can be stalled out well into next year, that way people will stay and the company will have summer staffing. Agreed, if we don't hear anything by the end of the year I think their intentions will be clear.

Thanks, Snacky.
Yeah, no announcement, punch out!

But I think we'll get something soon. The deal-breakers will be no rate change, (ie: jet rates=jet pay, not Q400; and no ********ing PBS bidding).
If not, well, I'll be disappointed, but life, and employers move on.....��

Let's say the company backs off on the whole jet pay for Q400 pay and PBS thing - would you vote yes on an extension on our existing contract? The company seems to think if they yell "concessions" before the pilot group calls for contract improvements that we'll be perfectly happy with the status quo. However, I think they're quite intent on getting PBS.

So honest question, how does any of this news change your job hunt? Your resumes are already updated and in with majors, right? Are you talking about widening the search to (U)LCC's or something or are you talking about bailing for another regional?