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Originally Posted by Phteven
(Post 2013849)
Once upon a time wasn't their talk of expanding the ANC base to do more SE Alaska flying? That whole segment of QX seems very disconnected from the rest except for what I hear from junior CA's that started up there. Maybe just another thing like base closures that has been tabled amidst the current jet discussion?
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When I was hired in early 2014, there was a lot of discussion that QX was going to be used to replace the Alaska 737-400 combis on a lot of flying, and the ANC base would expand, but all of that has clearly been put on the back burner, and ANC has had no new flying for something like a year now.
Most of that is probably down to the uncertainty being introduced by contract negotiations and possible fleet changes (or downsizing), but I'd bet that the drop in fuel prices, Q400 reliability issues, and tendency to "bulk out" with the two free bags up there probably encouraged Alaska to keep some 737's on routes that might have gone to QX otherwise. |
Originally Posted by cactusflyer
(Post 2014341)
When I was hired in early 2014, there was a lot of discussion that QX was going to be used to replace the Alaska 737-400 combis on a lot of flying, and the ANC base would expand, but all of that has clearly been put on the back burner, and ANC has had no new flying for something like a year now.
Most of that is probably down to the uncertainty being introduced by contract negotiations and possible fleet changes (or downsizing), but I'd bet that the drop in fuel prices, Q400 reliability issues, and tendency to "bulk out" with the two free bags up there probably encouraged Alaska to keep some 737's on routes that might have gone to QX otherwise. Yep that sounds about right. The freight issue alone is problematic. The Q400 sucks for passengers down here, I imagine it only sucks more for them up here. What do you do way up north when it drops below -36C?! |
Originally Posted by Phteven
(Post 2014573)
Yep that sounds about right. The freight issue alone is problematic. The Q400 sucks for passengers down here, I imagine it only sucks more for them up here. What do you do way up north when it drops below -36C?!
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Originally Posted by alaskadrifter
(Post 2014581)
ANC rarely gets that cold. At Hageland, I believe our cut off is -40 for the 1900s. What will they replace the combis with then? Ejets??
I was referring to the Deadhorse runs where I understand it's regularly a problem to land with it below -36 (below the APU crank temp). Not sure, maybe just separating pax and cargo more and just running freighters? |
Originally Posted by Phteven
(Post 2014688)
I was referring to the Deadhorse runs where I understand it's regularly a problem to land with it below -36 (below the APU crank temp).
Not sure, maybe just separating pax and cargo more and just running freighters? Just seems like there is no good replacement for the combi. |
Originally Posted by alaskadrifter
(Post 2014581)
ANC rarely gets that cold. At Hageland, I believe our cut off is -40 for the 1900s. What will they replace the combis with then? Ejets??
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Originally Posted by cactusflyer
(Post 2015001)
Alaska is converting three of their -700's to freighters to replace the combis in 2017, and I think the idea is that the freighters will fly only as needed, while the passenger 737's (and maybe some Q400's) will run regularly scheduled service.
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Originally Posted by Phteven
(Post 2012835)
It really doesn't instill confidence when we've been kept in the dark for months, then the union says on Friday "we were going to tell you today but the company asked us not to, but definitely on Monday." Then on Monday it's "we were going to tell you today, but the company wants to keep stalling, so maybe tomorrow." And today...crickets.
Infrequent, useless email updates from the union are getting old. Glad they're representing our interests...whatever those interests are... |
"Early 2016" was mentioned by CEO. Union was about to release negotiation details but the company begged them not to and went back to the table. Haven't heard anything since.
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Nothing new in the past ten days. Just the same zero-sum game with both sides hoping the other will flinch before the inevitable point when an announcement must be made. At this point, things will get pretty interesting if we don't vote in the first thing that is offered.
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Can't wait until a TA is put in front of us with PBS on it. Won't be able to mash the 'NO' button hard enough.
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The last union email said the three main topics being negotiated are "scope, scheduling, and duration." I'm trying to think how they might concoct something with any chance of passing that sweetens the deal enough to be able to include PBS. The company must know that not enough people here are fearful of shrinking to give the "concessions or die" argument enough weight. Could they spring SSP on us or something to get the junior folks on board with PBS?
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The company knows if we don't get these 8 jets it's all over. We will lose 17 planes at the end of 2017, all the junior FO's will quit because they know they're getting furloughed anyway. Junior CAs will quit before they get displaced back to FO, might as well go build seniority somewhere else.
Our on time performance will drop down to 5-10%, the ship will burn and it will burn well, taking Alaska's stock price with it as 40% of their feed is destroyed with no one to replace the flying. Skywest can't take it because their pilots are already maxed out with 95 hour lines. Alaska will lose its brand loyalty as all the ****ed off residents in the outstations are forced to make the 2-3 hours drive to Seattle, why stay with Alaska when Delta is cheaper. The company knows all of this, they aren't stupid. They will still play their cat and mouse bullsh*t with us just to spite us though. Man, Brad Tilden must hate our guts. |
Originally Posted by snackysmores
(Post 2019076)
The company knows if we don't get these 8 jets it's all over. We will lose 17 planes at the end of 2017, all the junior FO's will quit because they know they're getting furloughed anyway. Junior CAs will quit before they get displaced back to FO, might as well go build seniority somewhere else.
Our on time performance will drop down to 5-10%, the ship will burn and it will burn well, taking Alaska's stock price with it as 40% of their feed is destroyed with no one to replace the flying. Skywest can't take it because their pilots are already maxed out with 95 hour lines. Alaska will lose its brand loyalty as all the ****ed off residents in the outstations are forced to make the 2-3 hours drive to Seattle, why stay with Alaska when Delta is cheaper. The company knows all of this, they aren't stupid. They will still play their cat and mouse bullsh*t with us just to spite us though. Man, Brad Tilden must hate our guts. |
Originally Posted by Singlecoil
(Post 2019181)
All correct and spot on until the last sentence. Brad Tilden's job is to get the best deal he can by any ethical means he can. If he doesn't, he gets fired by the board. He is putting the pressure on the pilots right now. Until pilots learn to put pressure back on the CEO, don't expect any deal to be in your favor. You can't take it personally, because he certainly doesn't.
I think we will be okay, especially when he's having a new house built in Redmond supposedly. Who else is going to get him there? :D |
What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
Apparently Compass just announced a boost in new hire pay and the addition of commuter hotels. I'm losing track of how many regionals have seen contract improvements since our jet debate has started. Off the top of my head there is Skywest, Republic, CommutAir, and now Compass and probably more.
This whole conversation is just getting ridiculous. Based one the vague information we've been getting, it sounds like there are no contract improvements being discussed and it would have to be something really good if it is to include PBS. I can't see how we could get something to vote on that has any chance of success. I presume the union feels the same way. |
I suspect that the timing of the negotiations is making things worse for Alaska than the EXCO and pilot group.
If Air Group had started this "concessions or furloughs" BS as late as last year, there's a chance they could have gotten something passed, since our contract was better than other regionals for first year pay, and we could still be picky with hiring, so the "you're overpaid" argument might have had some merit. Since Air Group waited until the middle of this year to start pushing for concessions, they've seen three other regionals (including SKW) get contracts that included substantial raises in first year pay and other pilot-friendly changes, which means Air Group has seen their bargaining position steadily erode, and the situation just keeps getting worse as more regionals have to bump pay to attract pilots to keep pace with attrition. When you combine that with QX's lack of jets, hiring bonuses, flow, or a meaningful future resulting in fewer applicants and less qualified new hires (and every other regional currently hiring like crazy), Air Group has essentially painted themselves into a corner, and our pilot group is very aware of it. |
Originally Posted by cactusflyer
(Post 2019306)
I suspect that the timing of the negotiations is making things worse for Alaska than the EXCO and pilot group.
If Air Group had started this "concessions or furloughs" BS as late as last year, there's a chance they could have gotten something passed, since our contract was better than other regionals for first year pay, and we could still be picky with hiring, so the "you're overpaid" argument might have had some merit. Since Air Group waited until the middle of this year to start pushing for concessions, they've seen three other regionals (including SKW) get contracts that included substantial raises in first year pay and other pilot-friendly changes, which means Air Group has seen their bargaining position steadily erode, and the situation just keeps getting worse as more regionals have to bump pay to attract pilots to keep pace with attrition. When you combine that with QX's lack of jets, hiring bonuses, flow, or a meaningful future resulting in fewer applicants and less qualified new hires (and every other regional currently hiring like crazy), Air Group has essentially painted themselves into a corner, and our pilot group is very aware of it. Entirely agree. What I'm wondering is if these new jets are supposed to be flying in Q1 of 2017 then the options for how this plays out are pretty limited. Either the company needs to sharply change direction in negotiations or they need to push that date back. They're up against the wall right now, they have maybe four months as an absolute max? If whatever we end up voting on smells even slightly like a concession it's not going to pass. A failed TA would burn up time they don't have right now. |
Originally Posted by snackysmores
(Post 2019015)
"Early 2016" was mentioned by CEO. Union was about to release negotiation details but the company begged them not to and went back to the table. Haven't heard anything since.
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Originally Posted by snackysmores
(Post 2019076)
The company knows if we don't get these 8 jets it's all over. We will lose 17 planes at the end of 2017, all the junior FO's will quit because they know they're getting furloughed anyway. Junior CAs will quit before they get displaced back to FO, might as well go build seniority somewhere else.
Our on time performance will drop down to 5-10%, the ship will burn and it will burn well, taking Alaska's stock price with it as 40% of their feed is destroyed with no one to replace the flying. Skywest can't take it because their pilots are already maxed out with 95 hour lines. Alaska will lose its brand loyalty as all the ****ed off residents in the outstations are forced to make the 2-3 hours drive to Seattle, why stay with Alaska when Delta is cheaper. The company knows all of this, they aren't stupid. They will still play their cat and mouse bullsh*t with us just to spite us though. Man, Brad Tilden must hate our guts. Pilots need to stop caving to fear. Its a different era. The pendulum is swinging back so long as a group doesnt believe the management explanation of whats to come "if you don't take this offer." |
Originally Posted by Phteven
(Post 2019395)
Entirely agree. What I'm wondering is if these new jets are supposed to be flying in Q1 of 2017 then the options for how this plays out are pretty limited. Either the company needs to sharply change direction in negotiations or they need to push that date back. They're up against the wall right now, they have maybe four months as an absolute max? If whatever we end up voting on smells even slightly like a concession it's not going to pass. A failed TA would burn up time they don't have right now.
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Originally Posted by pete2800
(Post 2019599)
This is one reason I think the aircraft are headed for SkyWest. We'll get something to vote on, it will be concessionary, and it'll get voted down. We'll hear "We don't have time to attempt another TA, the aircraft have to be in service in 8 months, and as a result we reluctantly have to place the aircraft at an established jet operator." SkyWest will raise their first year pay again, their upgrade time will drop as a result of new airplanes, and new hires will flock to them.
So what's it going to be Brad? Are you going to F your employees, your customers, your stock price, and reputation just save a couple bucks if any? |
If they go to SkyWest the only people getting screwed would be QX employees. Stock price shouldn't change as a result of placing them at a cheaper company and I'm sure he could care less what his reputation is amongst a pilot group when the board supports him. Jets on property will only benefit a small group of Horizon pilots anyways let's hope they don't cave to concessions just to get back into a jet.
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If horizon dies with no one to replace the flying, how could losing 40% of your feed not negatively affect stock price?
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Originally Posted by snackysmores
(Post 2019622)
If horizon dies with no one to replace the flying, how could losing 40% of your feed not negatively affect stock price?
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Originally Posted by pete2800
(Post 2019645)
I'm not understanding how we're irreplaceable.
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The problem is it will not need to be replaced all at once. It will be a slow bleed as guys jump ship. Unfortunately would not be that hard to replace. SKW has grown by 500 pilots in the last 18 months. While getting the jets at SKW does nothing but benefit me, I hope for you guys that's not the way it goes down.
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Originally Posted by snackysmores
(Post 2019608)
And then the place burns down. TBH there's better options than OO, Compass just got a nice bump and will probably get more jets as Delta prepares to kick Alaska out of Seattle, just like how Southwest kicked Alaska out of California.
So what's it going to be Brad? Are you going to F your employees, your customers, your stock price, and reputation just save a couple bucks if any? Compass get more Delta jets???? Delta is "scoped" out. Unless Republic or some one else losses jets i guess.... |
Originally Posted by amcnd
(Post 2019691)
Compass get more Delta jets???? Delta is "scoped" out. Unless Republic or some one else losses jets i guess....
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Originally Posted by snackysmores
(Post 2019650)
Who could replace us? Skywest can hardly staff their own flying. Compass flies for Delta. Who else is out there on the west coast? Pen Air? They have like 2 planes lol. Who is going to fly 53 Q400s, or fly an E175 from SEA to Wenatchee and expect to make money?
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Originally Posted by pete2800
(Post 2019645)
I'm not understanding how we're irreplaceable.
No question about it - Horizon is replaceable just like every regional airline. However, if AAG wanted to do that they would want it to happen on their terms, not ours. If Horizon’s attrition rate exceeds their ability to hire, that will absolutely be bad news for AAG stock and customer loyalty. There’s no way could they seamlessly fill Horizon flying with Skywest flying without damage being done. |
Originally Posted by word302
(Post 2019670)
The problem is it will not need to be replaced all at once. It will be a slow bleed as guys jump ship. Unfortunately would not be that hard to replace. SKW has grown by 500 pilots in the last 18 months. While getting the jets at SKW does nothing but benefit me, I hope for you guys that's not the way it goes down.
I don't have an MBA, but I'm guessing that an airline having months of cancelled flights because their regional feed completely collapsed probably doesn't do good things for the stock price. |
I'd like to think that, but if AG decides to torpedo us, this ship won't suddenly capsize, it'll slowly settle before it slips beneath the waves.
While we'll all be abandoning ship, it will still be a ship before sinking, and most people will stay until they have a solid place to land. That won't happen overnight, especially with all our lifers. So, I don't think that massive schedule disruptions are likely. As B.T. said when he fired all the AS rampers: "It's just business." As immoral as that is...:mad: |
Originally Posted by N19906
(Post 2020700)
I'd like to think that, but if AG decides to torpedo us, this ship won't suddenly capsize, it'll slowly settle before it slips beneath the waves.
While we'll all be abandoning ship, it will still be a ship before sinking, and most people will stay until they have a solid place to land. That won't happen overnight, especially with all our lifers. So, I don't think that massive schedule disruptions are likely. As B.T. said when he fired all the AS rampers: "It's just business." As immoral as that is...:mad: |
I don't get it, what's in it for AS by playing these games. They just spent a lot of money getting QX set up in ANC, why would they turn around and sabatoge that?
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Originally Posted by N19906
(Post 2020700)
I'd like to think that, but if AG decides to torpedo us, this ship won't suddenly capsize, it'll slowly settle before it slips beneath the waves.
While we'll all be abandoning ship, it will still be a ship before sinking, and most people will stay until they have a solid place to land. That won't happen overnight, especially with all our lifers. So, I don't think that massive schedule disruptions are likely. As B.T. said when he fired all the AS rampers: "It's just business." As immoral as that is...:mad: |
Originally Posted by Phteven
(Post 2020886)
I don't think there is precedent for this, so it is hard to say. However, with regional airlines hiring at a higher rate than ever I can't imagine they can stay in control of announcing a 40% cut to the fleet. Republic reached a point of canceling something like 250 flights a day and there situation was not a dire as ours would be facing a loss of half of our flying in a year's time.
Presently, most of the FO's here could jump ship to basically any other regional and end up breaking even (or possibly ahead) financially thanks to higher starting pay and signing bonuses, and the pace of regional hiring means that 300 ATP rated pilots would get snapped up very quickly, so it wouldn't take long to thin the ranks here. I'm sure the lifers here would likely stick around (since they're probably not going to get furloughed or downgraded) along with some other people, but there's no way Air Group can avoid massive cancellations starting within a couple months of announcing they're shrinking QX, and having 100% of the remaining employees holding a grudge against Air Group isn't going to help cover that shortfall. |
Originally Posted by alaskadrifter
(Post 2020717)
I don't get it, what's in it for AS by playing these games. They just spent a lot of money getting QX set up in ANC, why would they turn around and sabatoge that?
Its all about yield and the state of Alaska is yield heaven. |
Originally Posted by Packrat
(Post 2021435)
Cut QX down to size and move the whole thing up to Alaska. Run PenAir and Ravn out of business and subservice the L48 stuff to Skywest.
Its all about yield and the state of Alaska is yield heaven. |
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