What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

Alaska had another great quarter. In the letter to employees Air Group CEO Brad Tilden included a paragraph about, "What's happening at Horizon Air." Here it is:
Sounds like they're asking current pilots at Horizon to fly the jets for the same pay rate as the Q400. Does anyone have additional information about these negotiations?

There are also significant scheduling and work rule concessions involved. I don't have all the details as I've gotten it secondhand. Hopefully a current qx pilot can fill us in because everyone's been asking.

Maybe they'll get the CRJs back from SKW. Aren't the registration numbers still XXXAG?

Is there anything wrong with being paid the same to fly a 76 seat jet as you get paid to fly a 74/76 seat turbo prop?

LOL, Of course not. They should be the same one would think. But if the 76 Jets rates are higher then they should fly the Q400 for higher rates also right?? Should go both ways. Hell the Q400 guys should be paid EMB 170 rates.

I think having pilots to staff said flying would help to ' fight the competition' as well. Minor details and what not.

At this point, we just don't know anything.

Still waiting to see if our union and the company can put something together that we can actually vote on. It's been quiet. The original target was the end of October.

Here are the highlights of what is going on:
1. We're losing 20 Q400's (40% of the fleet) by 2018
2. We have the "opportunity to compete (against SKW)" for 30 E175's, the first of which will be flying in Q1-2 2017
3. They want us to fly it at Q400 pay (our current CBA is for a 10% pay increase on a 76-seat jet over the current Q400 rate)
4. They want us to ditch line bidding and our schedule adjustment periods for PBS.
5. And they want to "simplify" our work rules...nothing yet on what that means.

The past two months they have been doing roadshows and sending out emails telling us how we are 28% too expensive to get the new flying. The union has hired a financial analyst who has already concluded this number is wildly inaccurate, but the company thinks if they keep saying "28%" we'll eventually believe it.

The general opinion from the line is:
1. The decision has been made, and it seems that the majority believes that the new flying is already slated to come here regardless (how do you shrink an airline by half in 2.5 years without a mass exodus and flight cancellations? NOT the attention AAG wants right now with the SEA turf war with DAL). There is more contention on the line about this, however those that do think this place might shrink still don't seem interested in voting in a concession to grow.
2. Our schedule adjustment periods (SAP) were fought hard for and many are very resistant to PBS
3. The 10% boost to fly the jet isn't about the money, it's about NOT TAKING A ****ING CONCESSION IN 2015. Especially to cave to the fear of downsizing.

We have some weird scheduling problems here (for one, all FO trips with CKA get dropped and pay guaranteed. Every day there are multiple FO's getting paid days off, 20-30 day stretches off aren't unheard of), and I think there could be a reasonable discussion about these things, but the company has come out guns blazing, so the pilot group is voicing a resounding "f--- you, pound sand."

The company wants a TA by the end of the year (hah!), and on the original timeline we were supposed to be voting on something by the end of October, currently the union is in another round of negotiations this week and we have heard very little about what is going on, but I assume they aren't making much progress because every other Friday we get an email that says "This week concludes another week of discussions. We wish we could report a major breakthrough however progress is very slow. We ended this week with no agreement. Further discussions are scheduled for next week."

That about sums it up. For the record... there was a video somewhere from Mesa's union people that included a cost comparison for regional pilots. It showed QX being about 10% more expensive than SkyWest.

These are going to the scrapyard at the end of 2016. Skywest already got a new contract to exchange that flying for E175 flying a few months ago. Horizon didn't have an "opportunity to compete" for that.

With Skywest's new payscales, rigs, etc. I have a hard time seeing how Horizon pilots cost more than them. We have pretty good insurance here and a slightly better 401k, but we also pay our own LTD which adds up to quite a lot of money.

Preach it brother.

Just about everything else though.

-They expect us to fly at Q400 rates (concession)
-Losing SAP for PBS (massive ****ing concession)
-"aircraft movement" over brake release/door closure (concession)
-possible loss of trip/duty rigs (concession)

They already gutted our 401k's and we pay a ton of money for LTD so they can't take much more from there, but they would if they could.

Man, F--- ALASKA.

I've heard these two things discussed on the line, but I don't recall seeing it in a mgmt email or hearing it at a town hall meeting. I know they tried pulling the a/c movement thing on the FA's but they shot that down pretty quickly.

Then again, we know basically nothing about what they are actually negotiating so...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Burn it down!

Here's the video:

https://vimeo.com/139018298

The cost comparison chart is about 14 minutes in.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...pswa4jhzia.png

Average stage length at QX is about an hour, maybe less with the routes given to skywest this year. Every Q400 has 76 seats. If you adjust QX for stage length and break it down per seat mile, it would be apparent our costs are much lower than they appear. It's easy to skew the data to show what you want. And for the Alaska guys who think this flying we lost was theirs in the first place, you never flew many of these routes. Example SAN-FAT and SLC-BOI. After the air group adds 50 more ER175's maybe you will learn this costs Alaska pilots jobs. All jets should be at Alaska, remaining flying should be flown by QX. HR does a great job of hiring yes voters up at big brother.

When is your contract amenable....Why would you considering a TA that essentialy guts your contract when you are not in contract negotiations....sounds fishy, smells fishy....

I believe it is amendable in two years. That's exactly what I'm voting for - NO VOTE. Watch them still give us the jets without adjustments to our contract. It's a game of chicken, will they burn the place down or are they bluffing? Only one way to find out. We don't have a "top-tier" contract (a popular buzzword in mgmt these days), it's okay, but not the best or worst, and certainly not so far ahead of the pack that concessions are worth discussing.

Nonetheless, I agree with the statement above, these airplanes should be at Alaska. Austin? Milwaukee? Omaha? From the PNW? If that's considered "regional flying" then Alaska is hosed, unless Alaska pilots want to shrink down to nothing but transcons and Hawaii runs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In 2013 we voted yes to a concessionary contract that runs for 5 years and we did vote to shrink down to transcons/ hawaii and a speck of central america.....

These 30 E175's may very well be the start of that happening. It seems there is a group of Alaska pilots concerned about this, but the majority seems to be too busy looking up at that big 2 in front of 10 year Captain pay to be thinking about whether or not their jobs are being outsourced.

That being said, what is the Alaska mainline/regional ratio and how does that compare to DAL, UAL, and AA? Seems like a lot more Alaska flying is done by mainline but that there is more growth on the "regional" level.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What's happening at Horizon and Jets?
 

I don't think the two are unrelated. Alaska doesn't have the scope limitations of Delta so it could be a good financial move for them to outsource as much "regional" flying as possible, and given that Alaska's average stage length is around 800 miles, that could be A LOT of flying.

On top of that, if Delta does crush Alaska in Seattle, the most likely outcome would be some kind of merger which isn't the worst thing that could happen to Alaska mainline pilots. Slowly removing older, shorter range 737's and not hiring to fill attrition is a lot worse. Not saying that's happening here, but without scope, it could happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Likely you could be on to something there....of course the wide, standup 2-cabin class E-175 with a normal lavs and a galley that comes and goes from a regular height jetway is not anything near a "regional" jet

But think of The E175, as freeing up a 737 that was doing a GEG turn to fly a route that can better compete with Delta.. Smart move. Faster acsess to expand central america...

Delta doesn't give a **** about Alaska competition, DAL could bankrupt Alaska quickly if they wanted to. Simple, walk into a every Horizon crew room and offer the pilots a class date. They could take 30-40 a month if they wanted to. Good luck Brad finding pilots to do 40% of your domestic flying. Those pesky overpaid Horizon pilots...

I would agree with you, but it isn't flying to GEG. It's flying to f---ing Texas. Hence, it is not a "regional" jet, it is a mainline class airplane that is just barely below the arbitrary cutoff of what defines a regional jet. It is a smart move from the shareholders perspective, replace mainline flying with "regional" flying done by cheaper crews. Don't believe the management emails about how this is only about competition with Delta. AAG isn't just "freeing up 737's," they are making a concerted effort to reduce labor costs through outsourcing.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Regarding the E-Jets, it's only a "regional" airplane if the region is "North America."

Hawaii is part of the USA...how long until that is "regional" too? Seems "regional" means 76-seats or less. And here I thought seats were a measure of capacity, but I guess it's a unit of distance...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

From the 2014 10Ks
American Airlines | Investor Relations | SEC Filings
DAL 12.31.2014 10K
United - Investor Relations - SEC Filings
http://www.annualreports.com/Click/1020

Fleet Count at the end of 2014
DAL mainline 772 regional 499
AAL mainline 983 regional 566
UAL mainline 691 regional 566
ALK mainline 137 regional 59


Regional ASMs as a percentage of Consolidated ASMs

DAL 10.49%
AAL 10.59%
UAL 12.97%
ALK 10.11%

Has AAG announced how they plan on filling the gap between the Q400 and the 738? I don't recall them saying anything about it. I'd be worried more about that. 28% savings is a huge chunk of change for QX, even with how cheap we are. I'm going to go tin hat here, but here's what I think the board at AAG is hoping for(obviously just a thought):
Get QX to cut 28%
Order an array of aircraft to cover the gap (Embraer 175s and 190s)
Place them at a regional to fly (notice how I didn't say just QX?)
Take a portion of the 28% savings and give the Alaska pilots some as a bribe to go along with this.
Every few years revisit the whipsaw to order more large regional jets to replace Alaska mainline flying.

All this is obviously hypothetical based on both pilot groups going along with this which is more far fetched than my above theory.

Fire away.

Good luck with that. As someone said earlier or on our own forum, getting Qx pilots to take concessions after making billions in profit this year would be the mgt equivalent of a Sully landing.

Even if QX could get ahold of the jet flying would they even be able to get ERJ's in that time frame? I thought firm orders and options where spoken for for at least the next five years.

"President and COO Dave Campbell said Alaska sees an opportunity to increase the number of 76-seat jets in its fleet by 30 aircraft over a five-year period, starting in 2017. At the same time, Alaska will decrease the number of Q400s by at least 20."

My opinion is mgmt doesn't think a 28% cut will happen (they would love to have it, but don't actually believe it will pass). But they have cleverly avoided the conversation about contractual improvements by talking about cuts. I think they want to secure a long-term contract now before the hiring gets really ugly so they don't lose the leverage they likely would when our contract is up in a few years. Still a win for them even if it isn't a "concession."

Don't see how E190's could be on Alaska property if they aren't flown by mainline. I know they contractually could do it, but they would be stepping on some big toes doing that. I sure hope I am not being overly optimistic about that. My bet is they'll fly the hell out of the E175.

I think whipsawing will be the new normal for Alaska small lift flying. Who can fly an E175 cheaper for Alaska - Skywest or Horizon? Trick question, the answer is BOTH. The long-term cost savings lie with Horizon being wholly-owned so it wouldn't surprise me to see the majority of the flying done by QX, but having Skywest around keeps Horizon in fear of being outsourced. It's a win either way for the company.

Alaska pilots are already being bribed to go along with this and have been for years. Every new contract they get that doesn't have scope means money was put on the table to keep that language out of it. Question is - why aren't Alaska pilots the best paid in the industry for not having scope? They're paying insurance money without having insurance.

They are leases from Skywest.

Horizon, an Alaska company, is competing with Skywest to fly Skywest's airplanes for Alaska...

At least 51% of Alaska pilots are yes men. That is why they are not the highest paid with the worst scope. Standby for their defense.