Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot (Post 2948257)

JB put out at VIB 2019 that they plan on hiring 500+ pilots in 2020. I’ve heard it echoed by JB pilots that the company is planning to hire 3,000-4,000 pilots over the next 5 years.

What is the validity of this information? A320neo series aircraft are coming as replacements for older aircraft + A220s coming to do mostly 1:1 replacements of the E190s? Attrition? Growth?

I’m interested in JetBlue, but I’m curious as to what the outlook is for the company and if I’m going to stagnate at the bottom of the seniority list for many moons.

Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot (Post 2948257)

JB put out at VIB 2019 that they plan on hiring 500+ pilots in 2020. I’ve heard it echoed by JB pilots that the company is planning to hire 3,000-4,000 pilots over the next 5 years.

What is the validity of this information? A320neo series aircraft are coming as replacements for older aircraft + A220s coming to do mostly 1:1 replacements of the E190s? Attrition? Growth?

I’m interested in JetBlue, but I’m curious as to what the outlook is for the company and if I’m going to stagnate at the bottom of the seniority list for many moons.

Originally Posted by aldonite7667 (Post 2948283)

580 from OSC 2 weeks ago. New sim late summer will help matters a lot.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948304)

Probably only NET 400 to the seniority list each year next 5 years. Might have to hire 500+ per year to do that when you account for attrition (~100 per year, but probably going to increase as legacies start hiring more) and JB's slight uptick in retirements (increasing to 30-40 per year).

So probably net 2,000 over 5 years, definitely not 3,000-4,000.

Originally Posted by pilotpayne (Post 2948321)

580 this year?

Originally Posted by korg128 (Post 2948343)

Where exactly is the growth is my question?
I think JB is a great product but where will they expand? Lax ? Europe really takes off? Thats my only concern which is why I kinda feel that the NEO's will be more replacement than growth...

I hope not.

Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot (Post 2948347)

I’m wondering this, too. Meanwhile, places like Spirit and Frontier are expanding like wildfire. They said at VIB this year that they’re looking at adding 1-2 more focus cities “in less than 5 years.” Vague, but I’m sure they’ll show their hand when they’re ready.

Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot (Post 2948338)

2020 seems like a good year to get hired here.

Purely speculative, but with the legacies collectively hiring north of 3,000 pilots in 2020 and beyond, what number of Blue pilots do you all think will jump ship?

Originally Posted by korg128 (Post 2948343)

Where exactly is the growth is my question?
I think JB is a great product but where will they expand? Lax ? Europe really takes off? Thats my only concern which is why I kinda feel that the NEO's will be more replacement than growth...

I hope not.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948373)

As for hiring projections for the next 5-6 years, JB revises aircraft delivery schedules every few years, and most of the time it is to slow deliveries (growth) in one way or another. I have yet to see them sustainably increase the RATE of growth or deliveries.

That is the historical pattern, maybe this time is different.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948367)

I have NEVER, EVER, EVER, heard any JB "leadership", check airmen, chief pilot, union leader, fleet captain or friend in "high places" even hint at a new focus city... Other than after losing Virgin several years ago they were looking at SJC and 1-2 LA airports that I won't name.

With that said, JB NEEDS more focus cities and hopefully that includes geographic diversity, hopefully multiple different regions.

Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2948376)

Europe is the most likely bet for future growth. The HD 321neo is for upgauging NE-Florida routes for the most part.

Originally Posted by hyperboy (Post 2948387)

MSP? You likey?

Originally Posted by pilotpayne (Post 2948394)

I would also bet on more frequencies,
Look at the size of SWA and JetBlue. Look at how many city’s they both serve. It’s almost the same number yet SWA is way bigger vs JetBlue so we definitely have room to add flying to existing city’s as well as Europe and new places.


Wall St has the ELT by the B—-ls. They hate growth because it is expensive and want to see our EPS go up. I think if they can hit that they could make a case for more aggressive growth both to the board and Wall St.

But the above is all a guess.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948401)

Agree.

JB has historically added 250-300 per year to the seniority list, as fly-by pointed out with his graphic. The only reason I think 400ish is coming in the next few years is a combination of; CBA needs, as well as the Airbus deliveries (Airbus fly's the graveyard shift, more pilots per plane than the mixed fleet average), Europe (will require more pilots per plane, I think), A220s may fly SOME graveyard shift flying (more pilots per plane than the E90, 3-4-5 years from now).

As you said, all just a guess.

That all assumes JB doesn't do ANOTHER delivery revision slowing deliveries. And doesn't include any acquisition by JB or of JB.

Originally Posted by pilotpayne (Post 2948424)

I would think there will also be some kind of training bubble with 3 fleet types for some years.

Originally Posted by pilotpayne (Post 2948394)

I would also bet on more frequencies,
Look at the size of SWA and JetBlue. Look at how many city’s they both serve. It’s almost the same number yet SWA is way bigger vs JetBlue so we definitely have room to add flying to existing city’s as well as Europe and new places.

If we don’t hit the $2.50 target then all bets are off. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Europe indefinitely delayed, new management team, and real merger talk.

Wall St has the ELT by the B—-ls. They hate growth because it is expensive and want to see our EPS go up. I think if they can hit that they could make a case for more aggressive growth both to the board and Wall St.

But the above is all a guess.

Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2948439)

Agreed. More frequencies would be a conservative add. 2020 will be a cautious growth year, with all eyes focused on the EPS $2.50-$3.00 target. If we meet that then 2021+ will be a new era in growth and likely big shifts in risk appetite.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948432)

Yup, forgot that I previously remembered that. 😁

And having LR/XLR be in a separate bid group will require more staff.

Anyone know if they can/will do 24 hour layovers in London? Or will it require longer layovers?

What about something longer like CDG?

Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2948448)

I don’t think it will require anything that long. Unacclimated FDPs reduce the Table B by 30mins, which isn’t a huge hit for short TATL flights.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948456)

Less than 24 hours?

Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2948474)

Yes, I don’t see why not. I’m guessing it will be right around 24hrs since our slot times will be limited. Work the inbound, 24hrs off, back to BOS/JFK for a 3 day the credits 15hrs and around 14-15hrs block

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948514)

Yeah, but what about from SDQ/STI? 😁

Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2948549)

Those SDQ-LHR flights will be 3man crews for sure. Acclimated to SDQ time with a 36hr layover 🤣

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948559)

Now you're talking Blue.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948443)

Or 2021+ will be a continuation of what got them to $2.50-$3.00 EPS... With Europe being the new Trans-con Mint.

Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2948439)

Agreed. More frequencies would be a conservative add. 2020 will be a cautious growth year, with all eyes focused on the EPS $2.50-$3.00 target. If we meet that then 2021+ will be a new era in growth and likely big shifts in risk appetite.

If we don’t hit the $2.50 target then I could see Europe indefinitely delayed, new management team brought in, and real merger discussions.

Originally Posted by pilotpayne (Post 2948568)

If you added frequency you could definitely help with irops. When you have one flight a day that cxs and all the rest for the week are full it becomes a mess.

If they don’t hit that target definitely all bets are off. The one dude I was flying with said some of our big investors are the ones pushing for it or “else”. Which kind of seems right as the company keeps talking about them. Also I think back when we did have real PS and Jamie Baker was like wtf are you giving your employees this for while your investors get nothing.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2948783)

Yeah, because $billions of dollars of stock buy-backs aren't enough for the investor class, have to take the money directly out of the pockets of the people who give up time with their families to actually move the metal.

Stay classy Baker.

Originally Posted by SaintNick (Post 2948862)

A call with Jim Sullivan a couple weeks ago was talking about adding a couple bonus cities. Also they have said how the 190 won’t be a taken down 1:1.