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Old 09-08-2023, 09:48 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by ProPilotBlue View Post
I guess I'll be the sole "other" opinion here. If you're already on base on the equipment you want to be on, why upset the apple cart? I know several people who have jumped from airline to airline numerous times because the grass is greener, and they are worse off than if they had just stayed at the first major airline they were at. Starting over at the bottom of a huge list is risky, and we can't always assume that things will not change with the hiring climate. What if the music stops (or goes backwards) 6 months after you jump ship?

I'm not saying any of that to dissuade you. By all means go where you'll be happy. I just don't think that it is as much of a "no brainer" as people seem to think.

I say go to the interview, and see how it goes. If you like the company, and get a good feeling about it, go from there. But take it seriously and weigh all of the pros/cons and don't cheat yourself out of making a critical decision by just assuming that the grass is greener.
Mergers rarely end up good for pilot groups. Network rationalization, base closures, SLI, a very real chance of a bankruptcy after spending over $5bn with high interest rates trying to make this happen, not to mention very few retirements at either airline, two opposite business models merging, neither of which really makes any money individually (and has a high likelihood of continuing to lose money), vs going to a well run airline that consistently pays out profit sharing, consistently has industry leading contracts instead of riding the coattails of others, has a vast number of fleet and base options providing for a lot more relative seniority options and faster upgrades. I dunno, I honestly can’t see any upside to staying. If the music stops, retirements at delta will cushion that. What does jetblue/spirit have? Not retirements. Their attrition is off the bottom…if the music stops, so too will the voluntary attrition. And then they are fat pilots…at delta they will keep on retiring from the top and everyone else will continue to move along.

Not to mention the very real chance that jetblue closes ATL. If I lived in ATL I’d be gone from spirit yesterday.
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Old 09-08-2023, 10:01 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by AYLflyer View Post

The part of my brain that remembers the lost decade, age 65 and everything else agrees with you. The other part says maybe you, me and everyone with this mindset is just wrong now. Will the music ever stop? Even in a down economy, retirements alone will require the airlines to hire. Maybe we were just the last generation to deal with real aviation hardships, and now jumping ship is the smart move instead of staying put. I question this stuff often.

OP, I would def interview and would suggest to make the jump to DL if you plan on staying in ATL. Spirit, Jetblue, Frontier are not committed to ATL like Delta is. While the other airlines may always have a presence, no airline will own it like DL will. Giving up 2 years of seniority is nothing.
I hear you. It could be just the trauma talking. Hahaha
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Old 09-08-2023, 12:32 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by I was inverted View Post
Mergers rarely end up good for pilot groups. Network rationalization, base closures, SLI, a very real chance of a bankruptcy after spending over $5bn with high interest rates trying to make this happen, not to mention very few retirements at either airline, two opposite business models merging, neither of which really makes any money individually (and has a high likelihood of continuing to lose money), vs going to a well run airline that consistently pays out profit sharing, consistently has industry leading contracts instead of riding the coattails of others, has a vast number of fleet and base options providing for a lot more relative seniority options and faster upgrades. I dunno, I honestly can’t see any upside to staying. If the music stops, retirements at delta will cushion that. What does jetblue/spirit have? Not retirements. Their attrition is off the bottom…if the music stops, so too will the voluntary attrition. And then they are fat pilots…at delta they will keep on retiring from the top and everyone else will continue to move along.

Not to mention the very real chance that jetblue closes ATL. If I lived in ATL I’d be gone from spirit yesterday.
Using our seniority tool I count 19 retirements total (both seats combined) in ATL through 2032

If you look only 5 years ahead that number is in the single digits
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Old 09-08-2023, 06:11 PM
  #14  
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Hope you don't like soft time because we have none of that here
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Old 09-08-2023, 08:16 PM
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50% of the JB pilots hired 10 years ago are still FOs. That might affect the upgrade time at NK if the merger happens......
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Old 09-09-2023, 07:03 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by flosd View Post
Hope you don't like soft time because we have none of that here
None? Plenty of guys that finish the month with a 3:1 or 2:1 credit to block ratio.
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Old 09-09-2023, 07:08 AM
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Originally Posted by SSlow View Post
Using our seniority tool I count 19 retirements total (both seats combined) in ATL through 2032

If you look only 5 years ahead that number is in the single digits
There’s nearly 50 retirements on ATL 350 capt in 2024 alone.
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Old 09-09-2023, 07:28 AM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by symbian simian View Post
50% of the JB pilots hired 10 years ago are still FOs. That might affect the upgrade time at NK if the merger happens......

If they are it’s purely by choice.
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Old 09-09-2023, 09:34 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18 View Post
If they are it’s purely by choice.
Not wanting to be JFK/BOS bottom reserve would be that choice.
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Old 09-09-2023, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18 View Post
If they are it’s purely by choice.
Based on last years seniority list for both:
50% RS at JB 2013/10/16 DOH
2013/10/16 DOH at NK 23% RS
50% RS at NK 2017/06/11 DOH

Plenty of people bypass by choice at either. But of the people hired at both in 2013 (according to last years seniority list) 50% are FOs at JB, and 5 out of 250ish are FOs at NK....
And that only makes my point, as a lot of those will take the upgrade with all the NK getting placed below with some mix of RS/DOH. Yes, based on DOH some NK will go above, but for JB in that group RS will improve, they will take the upgrade, and for NK upgrades will stagnate. Not complaining, just the likely outcome. In his spot I would take DL over NK.
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