Pilotless planes could save airlines billions
08-08-2017, 03:12 AM
#22
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 76
Not too concerned...yet.
The choke point will be the aircraft manufacturer. They will not develop a single-pilot airplane, yet alone a drone.
For example-
You have Boeing pumping 50 year-old technology out of their factory every 19 hours (737) and advertising it as "new" and "cutting edge." Airbus is doing the same, just using 30 year-old designs. Even Bombardier and the Chinese are producing "new" airplanes that still have heavy demand on dual pilot design. That stuff isn't going to change overnight.
Oh- and this doesn't even discuss the regulatory issues of drastically changing regs to bring the airplanes to single, or zero human involvement. Governments take years to change rules and regs.
As another example of government's slow pace- let's talk ATC "NexGen", which started in the 1980's. How far have they gotten in that?
The choke point will be the aircraft manufacturer. They will not develop a single-pilot airplane, yet alone a drone.
For example-
You have Boeing pumping 50 year-old technology out of their factory every 19 hours (737) and advertising it as "new" and "cutting edge." Airbus is doing the same, just using 30 year-old designs. Even Bombardier and the Chinese are producing "new" airplanes that still have heavy demand on dual pilot design. That stuff isn't going to change overnight.
Oh- and this doesn't even discuss the regulatory issues of drastically changing regs to bring the airplanes to single, or zero human involvement. Governments take years to change rules and regs.
As another example of government's slow pace- let's talk ATC "NexGen", which started in the 1980's. How far have they gotten in that?
08-08-2017, 03:31 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 249
Originally Posted by Dised101
You and I know how important our services are. But, the fact is pilotless aircraft are already flying. The technology to have pilotless aircraft is "off the shelf" technology. Nothing has to be developed from an aircraft perspective. ATC reform is needed, but that is what NexGen is all about. Do you really think that the FAA and the aviation industry are in lock step pushing Congess for funding just because ATC reform is going to enhance safety?
There has also been academic studies (Rice, et al.) that have already provided data suggesting passengers already support one-pilot operations. No-pilot operations was less conclusive, but suggest the flying public would support it.
The public supports the concept.
The industry supports it.
The FAA will support the idea if the public supports it.
The only group that doesn't support it is the pilot group. My prediction is that we begin seeing Part 121 single pilot operations in current multi-pilot cargo operations sometime in the middle to late next decade. After that, it will just be a matter of time before Part 121 passenger operations follows. No-pilot operations? I don't know.
Also remember, kids are now growing up in a world that has been transformed by computers and computer technology. These kids view computer technology as more reliable than humans. These kids are going to be paying customers in just a few years. Just something to think about.
There has also been academic studies (Rice, et al.) that have already provided data suggesting passengers already support one-pilot operations. No-pilot operations was less conclusive, but suggest the flying public would support it.
The public supports the concept.
The industry supports it.
The FAA will support the idea if the public supports it.
The only group that doesn't support it is the pilot group. My prediction is that we begin seeing Part 121 single pilot operations in current multi-pilot cargo operations sometime in the middle to late next decade. After that, it will just be a matter of time before Part 121 passenger operations follows. No-pilot operations? I don't know.
Also remember, kids are now growing up in a world that has been transformed by computers and computer technology. These kids view computer technology as more reliable than humans. These kids are going to be paying customers in just a few years. Just something to think about.
08-08-2017, 04:28 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,262
Originally Posted by Dised101
You and I know how important our services are. But, the fact is pilotless aircraft are already flying. The technology to have pilotless aircraft is "off the shelf" technology. Nothing has to be developed from an aircraft perspective. ATC reform is needed, but that is what NexGen is all about. Do you really think that the FAA and the aviation industry are in lock step pushing Congess for funding just because ATC reform is going to enhance safety?
There has also been academic studies (Rice, et al.) that have already provided data suggesting passengers already support one-pilot operations. No-pilot operations was less conclusive, but suggest the flying public would support it.
The public supports the concept.
The industry supports it.
The FAA will support the idea if the public supports it.
The only group that doesn't support it is the pilot group. My prediction is that we begin seeing Part 121 single pilot operations in current multi-pilot cargo operations sometime in the middle to late next decade. After that, it will just be a matter of time before Part 121 passenger operations follows. No-pilot operations? I don't know.
Also remember, kids are now growing up in a world that has been transformed by computers and computer technology. These kids view computer technology as more reliable than humans. These kids are going to be paying customers in just a few years. Just something to think about.
There has also been academic studies (Rice, et al.) that have already provided data suggesting passengers already support one-pilot operations. No-pilot operations was less conclusive, but suggest the flying public would support it.
The public supports the concept.
The industry supports it.
The FAA will support the idea if the public supports it.
The only group that doesn't support it is the pilot group. My prediction is that we begin seeing Part 121 single pilot operations in current multi-pilot cargo operations sometime in the middle to late next decade. After that, it will just be a matter of time before Part 121 passenger operations follows. No-pilot operations? I don't know.
Also remember, kids are now growing up in a world that has been transformed by computers and computer technology. These kids view computer technology as more reliable than humans. These kids are going to be paying customers in just a few years. Just something to think about.
08-08-2017, 07:16 AM
#26
Banned
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Position: systems analyst
Posts: 757
Originally Posted by Gundriver64
Basement dwelling millennials
08-08-2017, 07:17 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Posts: 128
Originally Posted by jdebrey
I honestly wish CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc would just hire someone from the aviation industry who has actual experience instead of someone who has absolutley no idea what they are talking about. My friend sent me this article saying "well look who will be out of a job in the next 10 years" when in reality it couldn't be farther from the truth. The general public has no idea about the logistics, regulations, and economical implications this would have. All they really know about the aviation industry is that they get on a plane that goes up into the sky and magically lands at they're destination.
sorry for going a little off topic,
Rant Over
sorry for going a little off topic,
Rant Over
What happens when automation comes for highly paid doctors - Jul. 14, 2017
My guess is you could have Googled your friends field along with automation and found out that your friends field will also be disrupted.
08-08-2017, 07:33 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 147
Originally Posted by deadseal
It's always funny to see old dudes rant about younger folks. As if they were viewed any different by their dads. I bet old romans *****ed about those damn "centennials always writin dem letters!" when mail became dependable
08-08-2017, 08:09 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 209
We've had these discussions before. How many times does it take to make some of you guys understand? The pilot is still there. Just not in the cockpit.
I would be receptive to flying 2 PHL-BOS round trips from my house in the morning then head to the hangar and pull out the bug smasher and fly to lunch.
I don't need to spend anymore days in hotel or drive to PHL and deal with that crap.
I would be receptive to flying 2 PHL-BOS round trips from my house in the morning then head to the hangar and pull out the bug smasher and fly to lunch.
I don't need to spend anymore days in hotel or drive to PHL and deal with that crap.
08-08-2017, 08:15 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,039
For those that say this will be here in 10 years, all I can ask is, are you kidding me? Look back 10 years, or even 20 and tell me how "far" we've come. We are flying 1950s designed aircraft. Two major airlines still fly aircraft that were built in the late 80s. In the past 10 years, the best advances in tech by major aircraft manufacturers have been geared turbofan engines and split scimitar winglets. The last revolutionary design concept, the Airbus A320 family, was first flown in 1987. Every single other Airbus product has been a derivative of that design. It's going to take a couple decades to get a functioning type. Beyond that, it's going to take a few more to completely cycle out current generation aircraft. Companies aren't going to invest billions in the current generation and then throw all that money away to buy undoubtedly significantly more expensive aircraft to save MAYBE 9% a year.
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