Let's say there are 18,000 at regionals looking to move on, and 50,000 pilots needed over 20 years. If we were to presume even distribution that is 2,500 pilots per year.

At 2,500 pilots per year it would take just over 7 years to deplete the regionals. But if you look at it another way, if regionals hired 2,500 pilots per year into their ranks the average time at a regional would end up being around 7 years.

If you use 90,000, we get to 4,500 pilots per year.

At 4,500 pilots per year the turnover of 18,000 pilots would be 4 years. So if regionals could actually hire 4,500 pilots per year, they could still hold a pilot on average for 4 years before they would go to a major and meet the numbers. Realistically you'd still have military pilots skipping the regionals so the actual number for them would be a bit lower.

With those numbers, the bottleneck isn't pilots going to regionals and building more time to go to majors, it's pilots getting their initial training and then the minimum hours to go to the regionals in the first place. If the initial training capacity was there, the timeline for pilots at regionals would seem fairly reasonable.

However, with that bottleneck, I still feel like the regionals will no longer be effective or sustainable in their current form. Rather than multiple certificates and pilot groups flying the same equipment, a single certificate is a more efficient use of pilots to move airplanes. Upgauging routes and reducing frequency is another method to do that. You need twice as many pilots to move 100 people from CMH - ATL with a 50 seat RJ than a C series 100. The scale applies going up including the 76 seaters as well. I think a lot of these communities that see 4-6 RJ flights a day have a big potential to see 2-3 larger mainline a/c partly just to reduce the crew demands.

Baradium, well thought out. I agree.

On another thread awhile back I pulled out my crystal ball. I predicted in the next 5 - 10 years the number of pilots flying regionals will be half of what they are today and they will fly on one fourth the number of regional certificates. A real consolidation in the regionals.

A lot of 50 seaters will be parked, replaced by 76 seaters. Either PAX will increase or there will be fewer flights a day. (There will some small communities that can only support 50s a couple of times a day, they will stay like that.)

A number of the communities with 76 seaters will move up to the new 100 - 120 seat planes. I believe pilots with the majors will hold fast on scope, and these will be flown by the majors.

Once pay gets to something like 60 - 75% of the 737/320 group, some of the 76 seaters will move up and be flown by the majors, with this as a new pay group.

Check in middle of next decade to see how much of my crystal ball comes to pass.

Major airlines don't hire you for your superior "stick and rudder" skills. They presume you already have those. Instead, they hire a career employee based largely on that candidate's personality and demeanor. In other words, personality and character matter.

If what you post on social media is incompatible with the company's stated values, then you may not be a good fit for that company. In many ways, that online profile is "who you are."

On the other hand, if what you display about yourself in your interview is completely different than the persona post on social media, then you are a deceptive person, a liar, who is not giving the prospective employer a clear indication of who you really are.

If you want to avoid having a potential employer find out that you actually aren't a good fit with their corporate values, then, by all means, keep your social media posts as private as possible. (It still means that you'll have to behave like a chameleon, probably by lying, in your interview, but at least you didn't give them easy info.)

Likewise, if you want to have a career with an employer who is a good fit with your own values, then be honest about your values and only apply to employers who are a good fit. Ask yourself why you view the world in a way that is different from your prospective employer. Would you really want to work there? Do they really want you working there? Ask yourself why you would feel compelled to mask your worldview from an airline that doesn't value the same things that you do.

It's like creating an online dating profile that is completely antithetical to your real life, all just to date someone who is completely incompatible with you. Why?

FWIW, I doubt that airlines are actually checking social media posts, unless there is something about an applicant that indicates a possible "red flag."

Because of the amount of people who get offended at EVERYTHING with hurt feelings these days, I recommend you make a second social media account, the real you and the "other" you that can't be traced back to you. Notice the number of people who lost their jobs all around the country because they wanted to speak their mind. Whether it was good or bad they still got in trouble over it. So keep your real profile clean and nice and use your other one as a ghost you. Many don't want to deal with it but in light to super sensitive people it has shifted to a 2 or more profile world.

Were those comments on here or on your personal FB page?

On the other popular aviation forum.

If you have to make a 2nd account just to broadcast your ignorant views then the problem is you not anyone else.

What's there to hide? Can you not stand up for your own beliefs?

Acutally, I don't even know why I asked that question. Of course you can't!

There is no such thing as a 2nd account anonymity when it comes to online forums. Everything can be traced back to you. Like the guy said above, if what you have to say requires you to create a separate account then the problem is you. Stand up and own what you write.

Most of these people are cowards. They love making fun of millennials and minorities when the truth is they're the biggest babies of all.

There is a double standard when it comes to how liberals can behave on social media compared to conservatives. If that weren't the case, conservatives wouldn't need sock puppet accounts.

Do you want a FB or a major airline job ? After you get to your career destination go ahead and get that all important FB account LoL. It might or might not cost you millions of dollars in lifetime wages and retirement if you choose wrongly. Do I think it’s a big deal? Nope but as long as your employer does so should you.

Lurk on your wife’s/brother’s/parents FB Page if the social media withdrawal is too much to bear.

That's ironic coming from a sock puppet troll account.

Who's making fun of minorities? That will get you banned from APC.

Millenials are not a protected class (although some of them probably think they should be :rolleyes: ).

Protected from themselves ........

People become more conservative as they age
 

Before getting hired at a major:

"I am a tragically-white pro-feminist gay-man. I'm a member of OBAP, WAI, and NGPA."

After getting hired at a major:

"All my wives are pregnant. I'm a patron member of the NRA."

Nailed. It.

Hahahahahaha. Too much truth here

I’ll give my two cents to the conversation. Social media is toxic. It’s probably damaging our brains and it’ll take a generation to figure that out much like smoking and our physical health. It makes people unhappy, causes envy and depression, and creates a world of one upsmanship. Imo many first world problems with society can be attributed to social media. Would parkland have happened if the kid hadn’t grown up with social media? Maybe, but I’d bet it was a contributing factor.

Delete the Facebook, Instagram, etc and never look back. Share thoughts and photos of your life with your REAL friends and family via phone, email, or text. You’ll be happier and it’ll probably help you land a multimillion dollar career.

Amen! Couldn’t agree more.

Get off my lawn you “vermin”!

Lol so predictable
It’s got to be tough to sit down every night at your imaginary dinner party with fox and friends, and constantly lament about the end of your world. You want a tissue snowflake?

I look at FB once or twice a year, to check in with people I went to Kindergarten with in another state.

Hah, nice projection. I think you're starting to show your lack of mental state.

You couldn't be more right, social media, the internet in general, is also radicalizing people who consume only media that fits their confirmation bias. This won't end well.

It’s already not well. The worst is yet to come.

Damn I actually laughed

That could be said of every generation at one point or another.

Yeah but millenials are the first generation to have more people between 25-35 living with their parents than married with a spouse.

That’s a parenting issue don’t you think? Why are the parents allowing adult kids to live at home?

Why does every thread here have to turn into a generational debate? A few silly points.

Generational classifications are very fluid. A 32 year old and a 15 year old are considered to be millennials, but they have very little in common. I am a millennial myself, yet I avoided texting until 2010, didn't have a smartphone until 2014, & have never tweeted. Yet, I get lumped into the same group as current high school students.

And how many of you actually know someone in their late 20s living with their parents? I can't think of a single person I know who does and odds are I know more people in that age range. I know some did move back home after the financial collapse, but that was only for a couple of years when getting a job with no experience was difficult.

I also know a few people who look like the stereotypical millennial that would raise your typical APC poster's blood pressure. They have beards or man buns, eat kale, & are feminists. But they also have a great work ethic, have successfully started profitable companies, & are fun to be around.

You don't have a problem with "millennials" you have a problem with people in there late teens to early 20s because you grew up in a completely different culture. Since you are the product of your own culture, you are incapable of effectively judging a different generation since your own culture affects your perception.

Since complaining about the younger generation is as old as society itself maybe you should just realize that just as you grew up to be the ideal member of society, so will millennials. And by the time that happens, you will be retired and they will be complaining about the next generation.

Probably, considering their parents are baby boomers the 2nd most despicable generation.

Millennials only go to 1995 or so.

But but Fox and Rush tell me Millennials are worthless and lazy and need safe spaces. They can’t be wrong.

Depends on who you ask, could be anywhere from late 70's to early 2000's.

Then this is an even dumber thing to talk about on APC. That means the oldest millennial can barely hold an ATP. I would guess there are more 50 year old legacy captains with wrinkled and stained shirts making embarrassing PAs than there are 23 year old pilots living with their parents in a basement full of participation trophies.

23 would be on the younger end of the scale.

Given the behaviour on college campuses these days they are not wrong.

Said every old man ever since the beginning of time. Can you really not see that?

Clearly what is happening in a few classes in a few campus is indicative of the entire generation of 18-35 year olds. It couldn't be that if you went back there, it would be almost identical to what you experienced...

Communist sympathy started in colleges when paying tuition was a way for rich kids to dodge the draft. College has been ****ed up since at least 1970. And now it's leaking into high and middle schools with the faculty actually organizing walk-outs. This isn't a generational issue anymore. If it ever was, it happened before I was born, and I'm an X.

Take the tinfoil hat off. The only thing "communist" about a walkout is the "don't disrespect my country" sentiment many "patriots" are espousing.

Deja Vu
 

Yeah, I remember the “Ho, Ho, Ho Chi Minh, NLF is gonna win” chants in the ‘60s. As it turned out, those Commie Pinko Hippies were just as greedy as any of the old robber barons, and many of them are now running Wall Street, Hollywood, and the Media. Of course, they swore that they would never sell out to the Establishment, but they did, and so will today’s protesters. :p