Cujo665

yep. He’s in a nothing to lose position.

LabDad06

And how many is that exactly?

sailingfun

The size of the big 3 will be smaller because demand will be less. They will ramp right up to pre coved levels if demand returns.

Excargodog

Well why don’t we provide the ACCURATE quote and I will respond...

EXACTLY how many furloughs AA and UAL will have to do is totally dependent upon the speed with which both Domestic and International flying returns and it is generally assumed that international flying will be the slowest to return. You will note that for any of the LCC/ULCC carriers, domestic flying will also have to return for them to avoid furloughs, but even with NKs Central America flights, none of the LCC/ULCC carriers are highly dependent on International flying.

Not so, UAL, Delta, and AA. This makes it a double whammy for the Big Three, made worse by the fact that their most senior personnel are flying the routes that are likely to take the longest coming back.

Now you can be as sarcastic as you desire demanding EXACT numbers which of course I’m sure even you are aware are not possible to provide without knowing EXACTLY how quick international flying is coming back and EXACTLY how many senior people can be induced to accept early retirement, so PRECISE quantification is anybody’s guess.

Notwithstanding that, anyone with an appreciation of queuing theory, type ratings, and how the seniority system will drive a training cascade For carriers with multiple type ratings will realize the QUALITATIVE differences affecting the different carriers, even if they are unable to give EXACT numbers.

Certainly some of the Big Three management realize this as they make efforts to retire fleet types early and pare their number of fleet types, but while that may be helpful, unless both Domestic and International flying return promptly it will still likely force them to move senior pilots from one type rating to another with the attendant training costs and downtime that requires in a far more costly manner than the single-type carriers who need to merely furlough their most junior people and downgrade their most junior captains..

Or don’t you see that?

sailingfun

You dramatically overestimate training costs. Most of the cost of training is fixed and already paid for at the major airlines. The principle cost is loss of productivity while a pilot is off the line training. That is a non issue now with a surplus of pilots.

LabDad06

Well why don’t we provide the ACCURATE quote and I will respond...

See the"…", that means there is more to follow. I did not put a period at the end as if that were the end of your statement, like you did at the end of my quote.

But anyway, that was a whole lot you said, when you could simply say, "I don't know."

Very simple thing to do. And accurate. And nobody will fault you for it because guess what, NOBODY KNOWS! I hate to do the fellow furloughed CPZ crime, but you seem to be a self proclaimed expert on here when the reality is, you don't know. I don't either. You made a statement, can't back it up, then go talking out your ass trying to cover that.

Or don't you see that?

BobbyLeeSwagger

It sounds like they cant ramp back up as fast as domestic demand might return because they can't carry all the costs it would take to wait until it does. The post from "copy" above makes more sense. I think Breeze will thrive.

full of luv

Agreed, if training costs were such a drag on the company, they'd definitely try harder to have 2 maybe 3 categories, but instead they have multiples of that as it is really the loss of productivity that is the most inefficient part of training.

Excargodog

The statement I MADE, I backed up perfectly well. The truncated version you pretended I made was your own straw man, which I think MOST people see, even if you do not.

Excargodog

I didn’t ‘dramatically overestimate training costs,’ at all, in fact I didn’t QUANTIFY training costs at all.

I simply pointed out that training involving new type-ratings and multiple displacements due to furloughs in a variety of types is more expensive than simple junior pilot furloughs and downgrade of junior captains into the right seat in an airline with a single fleet type, and it is. And a cascade of training requirements caused by multiple displacements is NOT covered by the usual training overhead.

On this we agree, particularly when it’s a very senior pilot getting a new type rating after he/she has been displaced to more junior equipment. Most will be paid at the higher rate until completing the training in accordance with the contract.

No, It is not. It IS an issue if the furloughs of the junior personnel need to be deferred until their replacement is trained because THAT COSTS MONEY. This is ultimately about money, not a deficiency of pilots. You wouldn’t be furloughing at all unless you had a surplus of pilots.