Seniority Progression for Legacies

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12-20-2018, 04:12 PM

#11

FlyingHercs

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Joined APC: Jan 2017

Posts: 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiskeyKilo

This is fantastic. Lots of valuable data to consider.
Any additional data available for Southwest, FedEx/UPS, JetBlue, etc.?

My data for Southwest, FedEx and UPS are less reliable and complete. Someone from here should probably chime in and correct me on these if I'm way off.

FDX
2020 - 4320 - 94.8%
2025 - 3330 - 73.1%
2030 - 2260 - 49.6%
2035 - 1340 - 29.4%
2036 - 1175 - 25.8%

I don't have data past 2036 for FDX

UPS
2020 - 2615 - 96%
2025 - 2140 - 78.6%
2030 - 1290 - 47.2%
2035 - 680 - 24.8%
2040 - 300 - 11.1%

No data past 2040

SWA
2020 - 8840 - 96.7%
2025 - 7600 - 75.3%
2030 - 5645 - 50.7%
2035 - 3620 - 29.4%
2040 - 1945 - 14.3%
2045 - 1130 - 7.7%
2050 - 920 - 6.3%

I don't really believe there are 920 pilots currently at SWA who are younger than 33 right now.

12-20-2018, 04:58 PM

#12

Peacock

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Joined APC: Jun 2017

Posts: 659

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingHercs

194 on the list 33 or younger, out of 9724. Youngest is 26

12-20-2018, 06:36 PM

#13

Sliceback

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Joined APC: Dec 2007

Position: Window seat

Posts: 5,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peacock

I am a SWA summer 2017 hire, so the numbers are a little skewed. For me with only age 65 retirements it’s roughly:

2020: 87%
2025: 77%
2030: 57%
2035: 37%
2040: 17%
2045: 5%

AA n/b only comparison (E190's not included) -

2020 - 89%
2025 - 59%
2030 - 28%
2035 - 13%
2040 - 6%
2045 - 2%
2050 - 1%

CA upgrade among 'only' n/b's is 69%.
CA upgrade among all pilots is 86% using pilots on active flying (13,270) per the union's Jan 3XP list (all fleets, all seats). Junior CA is 11,400.

12-21-2018, 06:51 AM

#14

Han Solo

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Position: Fastest Hunk of Junk in the Galaxy

Posts: 1,657

Quote:

Originally Posted by blockplus

Commander in the left. Pilot in the right. Couldn’t imagine chewy on the radios. Ggggrrraaaaa... um say again.
Over and over.

Damn common core. In my day learning to speak Wookie was mandatory in K-7.

12-21-2018, 10:11 AM

#15

Sliceback

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Posts: 5,220

CA upgrade among 'only' n/b's is 69%.
CA upgrade among all pilots is 86% using pilots on active flying (13,270) per the union's Jan 3XP list (all fleets, all seats). Junior CA is 11,400.[/QUOTE]

86% is a bad comparator. Using all seniority numbers it’s 76%.

12-21-2018, 11:32 AM

#16

Vector Victor

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Posts: 37

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingHercs

Half of SWA’s pilot group is retiring by 2030? I didn’t realize they had that much turnover so quickly.

12-21-2018, 12:45 PM

#17

Peacock

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Joined APC: Jun 2017

Posts: 659

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vector Victor

Half of SWA’s pilot group is retiring by 2030? I didn’t realize they had that much turnover so quickly.

That’s off. There are 9700 pilots now so 5600 wouldn’t be 50%. Obviously all these don’t factor in growth. If SW keeps hiring anywhere near the last few years the numbers will be very different.

12-21-2018, 12:55 PM

#18

tomgoodman

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Joined APC: Feb 2006

Position: 767A (Ret)

Posts: 6,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by Han Solo

Damn common core. In my day learning to speak Wookie was mandatory in K-7.

My new-hire class included four Wookies and five Sasquatches!

12-21-2018, 01:37 PM

#19

FlyingHercs

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Posts: 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peacock

Yup good catch. Somehow I had 9160 as the total SWA pilots. But since if you add up all the retirements I have through 2051 it is 8228 and there are 194 younger than 33, that leaves ~1275 pilots unaccounted for (13% of the total seniority list).

No matter how you slice it, things look good right now.