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-   Major (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/)
-   -   ULCC Model in the U.S. (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/125192-ulcc-model-u-s.html)

Name User 11-06-2019 10:03 AM
Originally Posted by Omniscient (Post 2919053)
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.policygenius.com/blog/the-most-least-reliable-airlines-in-2019/amp/

Yet the chances of being canceled are lower on a few ULCC vs their legacy counterparts.

So to your point, it’s great American has more flight options because your flight completion is the most questionable in the industry
In the not so long ago past, Spirit canceled upwards of 20% of its flights DAILY for short durations. They were absolutely horrible. They put an increased focus on operational completion and its paid off, albeit at large increases in YOY CASM increases (reflected lately in the sagging stock price).

AA had a really bad summer 2019. The injunction helped but after the mechanic sabotaged the aircraft in MIA, it appears they had a come to Jesus moment and September was one of the best months since the merger in completion and on time.

That being said AA is definitely the weaker of the legacies when it comes to vulnerability from the ULCC's.

Aero1900 11-06-2019 11:37 AM
Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2918255)

There are 2 questions that deserve further discussion.
1) How does Frontier/Spirit do during a recession?
2) Can they break into the transatlantic market? (Frontier has 18 A321XLRs on order)
No one wants to take a stab at answering these?

bluesky24 11-06-2019 11:49 AM
Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2919172)
No one wants to take a stab at answering these?
1.) America West/US Airways had a good sized hub in Las Vegas and once the recession hit and fuel went up back in 2008 they quickly closed that hub and they never regained the market share. The void has been filled in Vegas by the ULCC’s. I think the ULCC’s will see the same thing happen in markets like Florida, Vegas, and the Caribbean during a recession. People won’t be going on vacations no matter how cheap the tickets are.
2.) The problem would be available landing slots and gates.

Flyby1206 11-06-2019 12:09 PM
Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2919172)
There are 2 questions that deserve further discussion.
1) How does Frontier/Spirit do during a recession?
2) Can they break into the transatlantic market? (Frontier has 18 A321XLRs on order)
As far as #2 goes, I can't see much different outcome vs the failed Euro ULCCs who went TATL. F9 doesn't have a big base of loyal fliers on the east coast where they would likely be launching flights from. Sure, TTN, but thats not nearly big enough in my mind, and faces immense competition with UAL/EWR and AA/PHL. F9 doesn't have a big network to feed flights, and/or O&D based pax, and an onboard product that isn't really desirable for 8+hr flights. I think TATL would be a very bad idea.

Peacock 11-06-2019 12:11 PM
Originally Posted by Omniscient (Post 2919053)
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.policygenius.com/blog/the-most-least-reliable-airlines-in-2019/amp/

Yet the chances of being canceled are lower on a few ULCC vs their legacy counterparts.

So to your point, it’s great American has more flight options because your flight completion is the most questionable in the industry
Yes, that is my point. While AA needs to do better, their network and frequency mean less risk compared to a low frequency ULCC. Also having a hub and spoke network makes overcoming cancellations easier.

SFA320 11-06-2019 01:14 PM
Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2919172)
No one wants to take a stab at answering these?
1. CASM is less than 6 cents. They will be fine.
2. Not sure what they plan to do with those.

SaintNick 11-06-2019 01:37 PM
The xlr frontier ordered is so they can finally do transcons.

Xdashdriver 11-06-2019 01:55 PM
The A321neo has plenty of range for transcons so I think the XLR order goes beyond that.

nkbux 11-06-2019 02:16 PM
Originally Posted by Peacock (Post 2919045)
Yet you only hear about people getting stranded by Frontier/Spirit/etc. If you’re getting a super cheap fare on a route that only has one flight a day or a few flights a week, you’re taking more of a risk than on a route with more frequent service.
Really? What’s is spirits completion/A14 compared to the legacies?

rickair7777 11-06-2019 04:07 PM
Originally Posted by Xdashdriver (Post 2919251)
The A321neo has plenty of range for transcons so I think the XLR order goes beyond that.
More than plenty. XLR is for something else,


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