When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave
 

The current hiring environment is obviously unprecedented. Getting hired today at one of the big boys (or even the LCC's/ULCC's) would project to give probably the fastest improvement in QOL of possibly anytime in history (i.e. moving up the seniority list quickly). But, where is the cutoff point? We know every airline is slightly different with regards to projected growth, retirements, etc., and any significant downturn in the economy would make a big difference in the calculation, but as a theoretical exercise, when do you think the point in time is where it's "too late" to take real advantage of the hiring wave? I suspect getting hired anytime in the next 10 years would still be pretty great for someone that had 30 years left, but what about someone who has 15 years left? If that person was hired 5 years from now, (with 10 years left at that point), where will they end up? I'm guessing that person may not see the left seat, and if they do, they probably won't have enough seniority to get off of reserve. Basically, if you come in on the back side of the peak (say, 5-7 years from now) with 10-15 years left, should you just plan on being an FO and base your projections on that? Thought I'd toss it out for discussion. No right or wrong answers but curious if anyone else has done more specific calculations.

2028 is probably the peak of retirements. You definitely want to be on your last seniority list by then

That only takes one component into account.
I think we’ll experience a major economic event in the next 5-7 years.
Bad mortgaging going up again, every second ad is refinance refinance refinance.
Dow Joke at 30,000 points, it’s all repeating itself again.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...le_figure3.jpg

I think all of the future widebody legacy Captains will have been hired by 2021-2022. Those being hired now will spend a long time in the left seat of a 77 or 78. Anyone being hired in the next 5 years will likely be able to hold narrowbody Captain at a legacy within 2-3 years.

That’s already happening meow...DAL just awarded NYC 737 Capt to someone on property 2.5 years.

yeah I was hired less than 2 years ago and was 100 numbers away, so about two years to 737 captain. Crazy.

When the fat lady sings.

Maybe now, if the corona virus tanks the economy.

Economists are predicting a mild recession in 2021-2022. Lasting about 12 months. Just long enough to take the heat out and correct the market prices.

No mass job losses or furloughs just maybe a freeze on recruitment at many firms till the economy starts moving again.

Remember Ebola? Well that was a false alarm. Swine Flu in Europe was another flop. 24 hours news cycles need 24 hours stories and Corona virus is this weeks hot item. Last week was Iran and before that Prince Harry. Its all c@ap!!