When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave
 

The current hiring environment is obviously unprecedented. Getting hired today at one of the big boys (or even the LCC's/ULCC's) would project to give probably the fastest improvement in QOL of possibly anytime in history (i.e. moving up the seniority list quickly). But, where is the cutoff point? We know every airline is slightly different with regards to projected growth, retirements, etc., and any significant downturn in the economy would make a big difference in the calculation, but as a theoretical exercise, when do you think the point in time is where it's "too late" to take real advantage of the hiring wave? I suspect getting hired anytime in the next 10 years would still be pretty great for someone that had 30 years left, but what about someone who has 15 years left? If that person was hired 5 years from now, (with 10 years left at that point), where will they end up? I'm guessing that person may not see the left seat, and if they do, they probably won't have enough seniority to get off of reserve. Basically, if you come in on the back side of the peak (say, 5-7 years from now) with 10-15 years left, should you just plan on being an FO and base your projections on that? Thought I'd toss it out for discussion. No right or wrong answers but curious if anyone else has done more specific calculations.

2028 is probably the peak of retirements. You definitely want to be on your last seniority list by then

That only takes one component into account.
I think we’ll experience a major economic event in the next 5-7 years.
Bad mortgaging going up again, every second ad is refinance refinance refinance.
Dow Joke at 30,000 points, it’s all repeating itself again.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...le_figure3.jpg

I think all of the future widebody legacy Captains will have been hired by 2021-2022. Those being hired now will spend a long time in the left seat of a 77 or 78. Anyone being hired in the next 5 years will likely be able to hold narrowbody Captain at a legacy within 2-3 years.

That’s already happening meow...DAL just awarded NYC 737 Capt to someone on property 2.5 years.

yeah I was hired less than 2 years ago and was 100 numbers away, so about two years to 737 captain. Crazy.

When the fat lady sings.

Maybe now, if the corona virus tanks the economy.

Economists are predicting a mild recession in 2021-2022. Lasting about 12 months. Just long enough to take the heat out and correct the market prices.

No mass job losses or furloughs just maybe a freeze on recruitment at many firms till the economy starts moving again.

Remember Ebola? Well that was a false alarm. Swine Flu in Europe was another flop. 24 hours news cycles need 24 hours stories and Corona virus is this weeks hot item. Last week was Iran and before that Prince Harry. Its all c@ap!!

Nonsense. Case mortality with decent supportive care is less than 2%. The annual increase in worldwide population is 1.2%. Even if everyone in the world got it and we had no better treatment for it than we do now - HORRIBLE AS THAT WOULD BE - we would be back to status quo ante within two years. And the majors would still be retiring pilots at near record numbers.

The economy is unpredictable. Anyone who says otherwise is full of it.

One thing to consider is "The Lost Decade".... it will be back. During those years there was no hiring, there will be a corresponding lack of retirements when people that could of been hired then would have retired. It will not be as bad though, since not everyone hired since things started back up was 24. But it will cause a drop in annual retirements... Think it will start in 2030, maybe sooner.

Since WW2 the USA has a recession around every 7-10 years. Seems pretty predictable to me.

This is sort of the type of numbers I'm talking about. There will be a recession, and it's slightly overdue, but hopefully when it comes (like one poster said), it's "mild" and simply gets the economic numbers back in line with reality. They're not THAT far out of whack right now, but they're all based on growth projections that, when the recession hits, will take a hit as well, then suddenly the market is overvalued, market drops, yadda yadda. It will happen, I just hope there isn't another "subprime mortgage" type of crisis, or God forbid another 9/11. Those types of events are what caused/could cause another lost decade. A simple recession will just take the air out of the tires for maybe a couple of years, and hopefully the massive retirement numbers will help to soften that blow for folks who are already on the seniority list, or are still trying to get in the door.

Obviously it's a multivariate analysis, based on how old a new hire is in the particular year that he is hired, and what assumptions you make about downturns. To be more specific, for someone like me (I'm 47), when is the point where you say "it's not worth it to leave my current corporate gig which is pretty nice but is pretty much topped out below what a 2nd year Major FO would make?". And also, "would it make sense now (and if so, when would it stop making sense) to jump on with a regional to gain 121 time if that's the only thing missing from making me attractive to the big boys?".

I know, every decision is specific to an individuals circumstances. Just wanted to throw it out for discussion and see what sticks on the wall. Good comments all, thanks!

I would be 55 years old. Wonder if it would be worth it at that point? Would I spend the next 5 years on reserve and only hold a line for the last 5 years of my career? Would a major even hire a 55 year old at that point? These are the questions that make me consider that truck driving school. Truck Masters, was it?

I think we need to buy more ammo.

I recently spoke with a very senior captain at UA who said a recent class had a 62 year old in it. Go for it man. Truck Masters will always be there after :)

62? Wow! That's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off :-)

1-800-big-rigs :d

That's a vanity move... 42 years slugging out in the 91 trenches but can retire with a wall full of legacy airline memorabilia.

hey, he’s earned it. And it’s not like it’s going to screw anyone over seniority-wise...

As the Aussies say, ‘good on you, mate.’ ;)

Getting old is an unfortunate eventuality with only one known alternative. That newhire with three years left made a call based on the options available, and decided it was the best move. He (she?) won't have the same expectations as the 20-somethings in the same class, but life could be a lot worse.

The folks who "won the lottery" with this environment are a lot younger than me, and will have amazing careers. Much the same as the crowd in the 60s that were picked up by a legacy before they learned to shave. That doesn't mean the rest of us should pack it in and apply to truck driving school. If you have to ask what the "best case scenario" is right now, you've already missed it. There will still be plenty of money left for all of us B+ students, in my opinion.

Ive flown with 2nd yr pilots making $200k. 3rd year even more. Even at 62...Not a bad way to enter retirement......along with some kind of pass travel benefits.

I will hit 1500hrs later this year at age 36. I have my CJO at my #1 regional. Sure hope I make a legacy before the wave come crashing over.

So if someone is only at the legacy for 3 or 4 years before forced retirement, how much money would they be taking home in retirement for only a 3 or 4 year stint?

Well im guessing by 62 most already have a retirement situation that's not going to change much.

Speaking anecdotally......I understand we have hired over age 60 pilots.. Retirement will be 16% on earnings, a life insurance policy that will decrease to a base value of $10K in retirement and the already mentioned pass travel benefits.

So in 3 years maybe add about 100-125K to the 401k from company contributions and with the regular and make up employee contributions I guess? Oh....and you might just get a type rating out of the deal.

Only speaking of AA, in this very specific scenario you’re asking about: Someone hired at AA in 2025 with a retirement date in 2035 would move up a total of approximately 6500 numbers. If the pilot group stays the same size that puts you at around 8500 out of 15000 at your retirement. That’s definitely narrow body line holding CA in pretty much any base (maybe not the exact schedule you desire though).

As one of the '60's beardless new hires, it is not all Moon Pies. Retired now, knockin' down $2334. a month from the PBGC. Didn't see that coming.

If you want the wave that’ll push you all the way to the beach, that wave came in 2018/2019.

A wave that’ll push you to ankle deep surf, that’s NOW.

Anything after 2023/2024 and you might as well just go snorkeling below the waves.

Can you expound on this?


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Unlike times past when a generational replacement was primarily with similar age (young) pilots....The age spread among pilots joining the majors is going to provide even the last one aboard some movement.

Even the long term plug at a major or ulcc has a considerably bright economic earnings forecast. The qol could be better....but it would still be a job that puts one near the top of wage earners. And in most cases provide genuine and secure retirement savings growth.

The game requires a very large ante, so the trick is to join it early enough, and stay long enough, that you are playing with the House’s money.
It stops working if you go bust.......or the House goes bust. 😩

I never would have made it on a riverboat..........

It doesn’t have to be deadly to be disruptive to the economy. If factories and plants have to close due to quarantines or sick workers that will disrupt supply chains. Those workers aren’t pulling in paychecks so they, in turn, spend less.

I get the sense that this time, in light of the lessons learned with SARs, governments will try to balance safety and the economy. An economic collapse is also bad for safety and public health, it's just not as immediate and obvious as the media reporting on an epidemic. Both Trump and Xi have (existential) motivation to not kill the global economy.

There should be a secondary and smaller wave after 2025, just not at the Legacies. Places like Southwest and some of the other Majors that currently have a younger pilot group. Subject to change with any merger activity.

Hell yes!!!

Wow Tired Soul, that’s low quality stuff. Swift doesn’t pay much huh?