did you read the explanation that the revisions are due to intensive social distancing?

Yes I did.....it says 'After just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.'

And this 'Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.'

I did skim it and after rereading it its clear that the transmission rate is higher but mortality is the same.

But importantly another dr believes way more peole already have had it.

I think when they start the quick blood test (prick of a finger) to check for anti-bodies, there are going to be millions that have them.

“UPDATE: Amid widespread reporting on his new death rate estimates — including by White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx, who cited his 20,000 estimate during a press conference Thursday — Ferguson issued a statement on social media Thursday to “clear up confusion” about his revised estimates:
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).”

Folks, for all those who think we're overreacting. Our President had one good thing going for him prior to COVID-19. That's the economy. Even with that Fox News Polls show him having difficulty in November. Booming economy, unemployment at or near record lows, etc. There is no way he would have agreed to the current measures if the experts hadn't scared the you-know-what out of him. I suspect soon as the "curve" flattens in the majority of the USA so as we're not exceeding the number of hospital beds and resources available the restrictions will be relaxed, even if it means more fatalities among the most who are "at risk". The nightmare scenario is COVID-19 patients dying because of no beds or medical equipment and/or personal available.

JP Morgan Chase CEO: Bad Recession Coming
 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...sion-is-coming

Jamie Dimon Warns 'A Bad Recession' Is Coming

April 7, 202010:02 AM ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says the coronavirus pandemic will have devastating consequences for the global economy.The United States faces "a bad recession," combined with the kind of financial stress not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns.

"The world is confronting one of the greatest health threats of a generation, one that profoundly impacts the global economy and all of its citizens," he wrote in his widely read annual letter to shareholders.

"As a nation, we were clearly not equipped for this global pandemic, and the consequences have been devastating," Dimon wrote. "But it is forcing us to work together, and it is improving civility and reminding us that we all live on one planet."

He applauded the speed with which the federal government and the world's central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have tried to mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic.

But he painted a gloomy picture of the months to come, writing that "we have to be prepared to operate under extremely adverse circumstances."

Dimon, who recently underwent emergency heart surgery, is among the most powerful and best known bankers in the world, and one of the few still in office who weathered the 2008 crisis.

He said his own bank had entered the year in a position of strength and, "while conditions may sometimes be unusual and difficult, we are functioning smoothly."

But he pointed to numerous difficulties ahead and said the bank's earnings will be down "meaningfully" this year.

"We are exposing ourselves to billions of dollars of additional credit losses as we help both consumer and business customers through these difficult times," Dimon wrote.

While most of the bank's branches remain open, many call centers have been shut down because of local restrictions, which has increased hold times for customers, he said.

This economic shutdown of the national economy is going to continue to send shockwaves throughout the country. If unemployment continues to spike at its current rate, we may be looking at another housing crisis due to delinquent rent and mortgage payments. The Federal Reserve has already purchased $214 billion in mortgage bonds. Between all-time high credit card debt, auto loan debt, student loans, etc., the typical American is highly leveraged. This isn't going to go well.

so I can finally get my dream trawler for a fire sale price?

Well my wife did decide now's a good time to buy a new car.

Wait till November, and they will throw in the dealership.