Andy

It's amazing how some go out of their way on public forums to express 'concern' over other airlines while not acknowledging that their own airline is also on fire.

To answer your question Al, should AA file for BK, it will hurt every airline because AA will dump tickets on the cheap and kill yields for everyone. It's not like any of the big 4 are going to ch 7 so I don't understand what the point is to start discussing CDSs.

As for the international travel prognostication, I've heard that one before. It was wrong then and is wrong now. But I guess whatever makes one feel like the uncontrollable fire in their house is less bad than the uncontrollable fire in the house next door.

chrisreedrules

I think if AA files the other 2 won’t be far behind.

Al Czervik

True and vice versa. One would come out with a huge advantage.

AxlF16

To be clear, the 'huge advantage' will be for the CORPORATION.

I'll put a very fine point on this. Any of the big 4 in BK will completely screw all pilots. The resultant BK pilot contract will put extreme downward pressure on ALL of the other contracts...whether their companies enter BK or not.

Excargodog

Agreed. Don’t know if the pilot’s unions - ALL OF THEM - could exert sufficient political pressure to get it changed, but just as we use “pattern bargaining” to establish contracts under the RLA they seem to use “pattern bankruptcy” to break those contracts and drive scope concessions. Somehow we need to find a way to make that sufficiently expensive that bankruptcy will be a last option rather than merely a routine part of their toolkit.

rickair7777

Due to legal changes, Ch.11 is no longer an easy go-to for management... the creditors could force liquidation (fed might intervene there), and also very good odds the management team would be out on it's arse if the creditors preferred their own guys. They won't go there until they are in extremis, or obviously headed there with no way out.

senecacaptain

Ch. 7 almost never happens at the major/legacy/Big-3 category in airline land.

Ch.11 yes, to include multiple trips to the Ch.11 booth.

Midway and Eastern I believe are the only ones.

Ch.7 is a rare event.

In my opinion the chance of a major/legacy level carrier being liquidated and ceasing to exist is almost zero. This does not mean they will not merge, acquire/be acquired, be smaller, etc.

But ceasing operations and selling the airplanes, assets, and baggage carts at the auction ? Zero chance.

305808

I’d hope so but take a look around the world...

Salukidawg

Oh come on. Let’s get real here. This pandemic is a once in a century type of event. None of the modern day Airlines were even a going concern during the last major world wide pandemic which was the 1918 Spanish flu. The entire world just got shut down and who really knows with any degree of certainty when things will return to normal especially in the Airline Industry. We are all officially in unprecedented territory right now. This is most likely going to be worse than 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis combined. I would never be so bold as to say that any Airline including Southwest is above being liquidated. Now, will the entire Airline Industry be allowed to liquidate? No. Will some Airlines be forced into liquidation? Maybe, but I wouldn’t say there is zero chance of it happening because that simply isn’t true.

Excargodog

Actually, it may not turn out to be terribly much worse than a bad influenza year, just seriously overhyped.

what is unique is having the politicians shut down the whole friggin world. If they are stupid enough to keep doing that, this could become an every ten year occurrence.