Well… this could be a slight blessing in disguise for Southwest. The bulk of our movement isn’t based on retirements but expansion. Our retirements are pretty damn anemic in comparison to the legacies.

Dude, there were several thousand early retirements. No way anyone could give a reasonable estimate. ... you didn't like my 739 guestimate?

less than 500 over the next 3 years, FO+CA

Obviously an estimate would be tough to pull, but I will say it would be interesting as I just came across a early retired Delta guy and he was bored enough to come back into the industry and was hired by our ACMI outfit. Now he’s globetrotting around the world with us having a grand time for a few years and couldn’t be happier. Of course there will be folks disagreeing with: “He’s taking another pilot’s spot and already has his retirement set” etc., but good for him and it’s beyond the normal experience we hire at an ACMI. It is what it is as he’s telling his friends now so yes, it does beg some curiosity but won’t be too impactful like extending the retirement age. He is an exceptional guy to fly with so there’s that.

*Might just have shot ourselves in the foot as several folks will have access to a Delta guy giving them some great career advice and/or his recommendations for his friends to join us will yield some extra $ on the side. Talk about timing.

Ok at the risk of starting a public measuring contest. My AAR of this encounter has led me to conclude I should PM the individual next time. That said If he said several is all I know or personally I know 5 or I guess 20-30 or maybe 1/3 of the total all would have been fine by me and I would have said thanks. I do know conversations I have on this subject face to face are far more laid back. Go figure.

Thank-you Sir

Gen X to Gen Z

https://i.ibb.co/PzqjxFc/6fy2jz.jpg

I'm all for it! Would like to have option of working a couple more years.

i think you’re misunderstanding who millennials are with this one

Yeah baby!

Fair.. lets go with geriatric millenial that flies cargo...

This would be awesome, 3 more years as a WB captain. Kids school is paid for, house is paid for. I could put some serious coin in the bank.

Just lose your medical at 65 and go on medical leave for 2/3 years. Problem solved.

I can’t imagine airline management would want this. They would rather trim fat from the top and hire young, year 1 pay pilots instead of dragging out top paid pilots longer

Well, that certainly got people stirred up. DALPA put out a similarly vague message. Impossible to gauge what the likelihood of this actually happening is without more details. ALPA opposes the change at the national level, and numerous resolutions that have been introduced at DALPA LEC meetings have been overwhelmingly voted down by membership. I also find it very hard to believe that management at the major airlines support this change either. If those groups don't coalesce around the change, it's DOA. They both have extensive lobbying apparatuses that they'll deploy to oppose the change, which is a key difference from what happened last time the age changed. I think one of two things is happening. Either some of the independent regionals and/or perhaps some of the ULCCs are working with their representatives to enact the change to stem attrition, or the unions are attempting to galvanize support against a hypothetical change to head it off before it becomes a more legitimate possibility.

I just can't see any of the big 6 management teams supporting this. At Delta, we had by far the highest early out participation amongst the majors and we still only need to hire at this pace for another year or so before mellowing out to a more normal pre-covid pace. I just can't see them chasing such a high cost change to head off an issue that will likely have come close to working itself out by the time a change like this would have even been implemented. It seems like it would be MUCH cheaper for them to go after some of the barriers affecting the regional carriers, like the 1500 hour rule and the 1000 hours required for upgrade.

Well what have you been doing for the past 30+ years? Have you not had enough time and money to "put some serious coin in the bank?" Is 3 more years really going to change your financial picture in such a way that your QOL will be substantially better? If you've been a WB captain long enough, I'm sure your earnings were in the $300k plus range for a while. At some point, all that WB flying will catch up with you. And I don't think all that flying in your late 60s will do much good for your health...

May have been Ted Turner or someone as wealthy when asked: “When will enough be really enough?” Answered: “Just a little bit more!”

Not judging and priorities are different for many, but when $ is involved it tends to have a parallel theme.

John Rockefeller quote

Excellent, thank you! Alzheimer’s or Dementia setting in…

Plz god no…

You should run for office! High Office.

I just cant imagine wanting to work that long. I have 20+ years to go and I am already counting the days.

Many would retire anyway because they don't want to work any longer, and had 65 set as the arbitrary finish line.

Some will retire early, even before 65 because they've met financial goals.

Some will work as long as they can because they need the money, either through poor planning or bad luck.

A few just like their jobs and will keep doing it if they can.


But what everybody forgets is ICAO... can't do international over age 65, and I'm pretty darn sure that that includes MX and CA. So widebody CA's would have to take a paycut, retrain, and fly NB's. I believe they would also have to be accommodated to stay domestic (really domestic). Many would not be interested in doing that. Also it's entirely possible that airlines would not be required to "accommodate" them by giving them domestic schedules outside of seniority. Airlines might be able to require that all pilots be legally eligible to fly to all destinations for a fleet they bid into.

Between high longevity, WB=>NB flowdown training events, and higher health and disability benefit costs, airlines will not see this as a windfall. They might go for it anyway if they think they need a bandaid to mitigate some of the pilot shortage.

As far as life expectancy, pilots on average live longer than the population average simply due to being higher on the socio-economic ladder. Yeah we take a hit due to OTJ environmental factors but not that big of a hit. Except maybe cargo people.

Yup, I thought about that but couldn’t remember what office, then I tripped and it all came back to me for a minute but ice cream was a HIGHer priority.

Unfortunately there is quite a large group out there who agree with you and it would be really dismal to be counting the days. There are different types of folks, flying gigs and obviously compensation packages. Long haul, short haul, big jets, small jets, passenger, cargo, corporate, military, etc. as we all know. Most chase the universal #1 priority (highest is $ as a norm obviously) and hopefully are able to match it with their chosen flying/career/schedule/domicile, etc. Most do not match up financially and mentally solid/fulfilled or whatever, but as seniority is gained they become more content for the most part. I wish them all the best to get their family time, fun time and clams saved (upgrade, aircraft, schedule, domestic routes, international routes, etc.) as quickly as possible to get to their finish line and get out smoothly.

*Life jabs such as divorce, health, death, less amiable offspring are not added into the equation above. Fairly recent hires who didn’t know what this lifestyle might bring is not included obviously as there is a plethora of information out there. Granted, actually waking up at 3AM for a 6AM go day after day, multiple legs, long legs, time away from your home/family, time zones, etc. are hard to explain until you face them yourself. For many it’s just a job or work and others will miss it so I hope you find your way to the later.

**Having 20+ years remaining and feeling like your looking down a barrel can’t be fun or healthy. Like rickair7777 mentioned: “A few just like their jobs and will keep doing it if they can.” Met one Delta guy and heard of several early retirees returning to the line; however few, they must have been fortunate to enjoy this lifestyle to roll back in. May we all have the best days forward.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4c4281c8dc.jpg
“Gonna be a good day. I’m gonna grease that landing and not poop my pants.”

for the record I am not sure how I feel about 67 or 68. Once you are senior though there are high time trips which if you fly three you fill your month up. 9 days of flying with four pilot crews ain’t that bad even for an old guy. Again that’s if you are senior. So I imagine if there are those that end up working beyond 65 after retiring today they would probably stick around given the option. Not all but I figure most.

I wouldn't count on 'many' retiring at 65; if they can burn their sick time slowly and fly a lighter schedule, a lot will do that. Finances won't be the primary factor unless the markets count melting down from here.

As far as ICAO, the current Chief of the Aviation Medical Section, Dr Ansa Jordaan, has not put out any studies about flying past 65 since she took over from Dr Anthony Evans when he retired October 2015. Dr Evans was a huge proponent of raising retirement age and put out multiple papers on the subject - it appeared that he was targeting age 70. I don't think that Dr Jordaan/ICAO would change the age 65 rule until after the US made a change.
That would restrict US pilots to only flying in the US. However, the only reason right now that Canada has 65 as the upper limit is due to the US retirement age so that would probably change quickly, based on this article: https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-ca...re%20different.
Would Mexico also increase pilot retirement age to match the US? Probably.
So that would put US pilots over the age of 65 to be restricted to the US, Canada, and Mexico. That would make scheduling over age 65 pilots fairly easy so I don't see a huge roadblock from airlines.
Would widebody Captains be willing to downgrade to the 756 fleet or narrowbody fleet? That's hard to guess.

I'm in my early 60s and could financially retire tomorrow. I have Tricare for my medical so I don't need to worry about reaching age 65. But I don't retire now because my wife is 8 years younger than me and wants to work into her 60s. When I approach 64, I'll get a comprehensive medical exam to see if there are any medical issues that should be taken care of and put me on LTD.

That would assume the rest of the world will go past 65.

But you can't do those trips after age 65... ICAO. Except maybe east coast <=> HI/AK.

As pointed out above ICAO could change too, but that's not as easy as the ICAO chief medical officer just deciding to do it, there would have to be member state concurrence to allow older foreign pilots fly into THEIR airspace. I'm guessing that would take time, if at all.

I can see CA and MX aligning their rules with the US, so one way or another the golden oldies could probably do domestic North America ops.

Preach on Brother Beavis, preach on.

my plan as well :)

Very insightful comments.

And perhaps this is a move where they say that they gave this approach a try, couldn't make it happen, so now they have to go to the lower end and lower the 1500 hour rule. Something they can tell the politicians "look, we tried to add retirement but it just won't work, so we need to lower 1500 to 1000" or something along those lines.

What if they say no LTD after 65?
Fly because you enjoy it…..

Read the LTD section in your contract.

Hell I was mad when they made it 65. I wanted to be forced out.

I wonder how many guys would stay till 68 just cuz the pants in the family makes the decision.

Retirement age 67
 

1. The overwhelming majority would stay until 68 if medically able to do so.

2. The same number would tell their FOs that they intend to retire at 65 anyway.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/wzxK9cmYgIPDy/giphy.gif

Everyone who says this are the type to stay until the day before their 65th birthday. All talk for the vast majority who claim to be counting down the days. I'd expect the same if it's extended to 67/68.