FocusedFlying

Everyone keeps saying "this is the beginning of the hiring wave", "if you get hired now you will have an amazing career", "you will get widebody captain in 5 years!"

For anyone still reading and not triggered yet. I suggest you do some research.
https://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp

Seems at the big 6 we are at approximately the MIDDLE of the hiring wave.
If total pilot numbers for each airline do not deviate by much, for anyone hired today, do not expect the amazing seniority numbers you keep reading about in this forum.

Seniority progression looks best at AAL and worst at FedEx/Delta.
(I calculated using 5 to 10 year retirement percentage projections and last 5 to 10 year hiring percentages)

Before any more triggers, remember, this is a current snapshot of data. Things that cannot be accounted for in my research: airline growth, future world events, average age of pilot at each airline

Ok... Let the flaming begin!

Av8tr1

I'm definitely in agreement that the music is about to stop. Airports are starting to see drops in passenger counts to where they were this time last year. The good times are likely over within the next six months to a year.

Round Luggage

Agreed, the front of the wave was when you first noticed a young person flying for a major.

usmc-sgt

Smoke and mirrors with a side of truth. I will say though, if you’re hired at sag Delta during the hiring “wave” the future isn’t as bright as they sell. Now, it’s likely to be a great career at arguably the best legacy carrier, but there is more to it. In the last 5 years they’ve probably hired 2000 pilots younger than 40 or so. While there will be great movement and retirements, a young guy will be behind a block of a
few thousand pilots senior to them for their career.

Joachim

It depends on the airline. We’re deeper into the delta hiring spike than UPS for example. This is ofc is just one thing to consider when looking for your next employer.

Joachim

It depends on the airline. We’re deeper into the delta hiring spike than UPS for example. This is ofc is just one thing to consider when looking for your next employer.

A person hired at UPS in their early 30’s is going to finish near the top. Not so sure about DL.

FocusedFlying

Yep!
Delta: 3450 pilots hired in the last 5 years. 7611 pilots hired in the last 10 years.

You will be behind a vast number of pilots for your entire career if hired now. Even if you go to an airline where at the very end you finish at the top 1%. What does that matter if 95% of your career you were junior stuck as an FO?
People applying today need to factor all of this information into their decision making.
Unfortunately, the "good" time to be hired is starting to pass.

rickair7777

It's not as bad as all that. The best time to start planning for the current wave was about ten years ago, so as to be in a position to get hired shortly after 2012.

But the good news is that the retirements don't just end in five years, or in 2030... it settles down to a slower pace but still respectable by historical standards (as always subject to growth or downturn.

Also industry growth projections are consistently quite rosy, both global and North America. I'm actually consistently surprised every time I see those, but they must know something I don't. I think it's based on known population growth and assumed economic circumstances. If even some of that pans out, the hiring will continue for many years, although not likely at the levels we see today. Yeah, they probably need green fuels and airplanes for long-term growth.

Gone Flying

I posted this in other threads but I feel it is relevant here. For Delta, based on the current seniority list, and everyone retiring at 65, this would be your approximate seniority number on January 1 if each year if you were hired today.

there are 14,103 pilots on the July seniority list

5 years (2028) - 11,500
10 years (2033)- 9,000
15 years (2038)- 7,200
20 years (2043)- 5,500
25 years (2048)- 3,300
30 years (2053)- 1,300
35 years (2058)- 350
39 years (2062)- 20

youngest pilot at DL retires in 2063

PhilMcCrackin

Those are just mandatory retirements. Airlines are still hiring for growth and attrition( still quite a few who are hopping from legacy to legacy or legacy to cargo). To turn down a job at Delta because of the fact that they’ve been hiring for the past 7 years is foolish.