Received a message from our union today -

“the MEC received a comprehensive briefing on the growing threat of Reduced Crew Operations (RCO) to our profession and to safety. This briefing, as well as a similar one presented at the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA) Conference in May, detailed three levels of automation being pursued, developed, and potentially deployed in the coming years:
Extended Minimum Crew Operations (eMCO) – Removal of additional augmented crewmembers, with a single pilot on the flight deck during the cruise portion of extended range flights while the other crewmember rests

Single Pilot Operations (SiPO) – Elimination of the requirement to have two pilots on the flight deck during all phases of flight, with a single pilot supplemented by automation

Full Automation – Entirely self-flying aircraft, with no pilots required

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is soon expected to release a working group report on aircraft automation, but the organization has already proposed an aggressive potential RCO rollout timeline, with eMCO beginning as early as 2027, SiPO by 2030, and pilot-less automated aircraft by 2035. Airbus is already developing technology to support eMCO and SiPO for the A350, while Boeing is looking further into the future and targeting full automation technology for their next generation fleets. “

This timeline seems pretty optimistic and ambitious. But it is also a good reality check. It’s coming; not if, but when. Curious what others think about this proposed timeline? Obviously it will hit the cargo world first; and maybe this a realistic timeline for cargo ops. Maybe another 5-10 years beyond this proposed timeline for passenger ops? Thoughts?

 

pilotless planes won’t happen until self-driving cars are normalized. People won’t trust them. It’s a long way off,

single pilot operations are also a long way off. The aircraft has to be fully capable of flying itself, without any threat of hacks/external interference and able to deal with any emergency.

eMCO could happen much sooner, but most CBAs require augmentation on long flights regardless of federal regulation.

I see this as an eventual threat, but I certainly don’t see it as a threat 4 years from now.

 

Don’t we kinda have to play ball to get this into practice. Don’t most major airlines have minimum crew requirement written into their PWAs? Is that really something pilot groups would sell? And the main issue with fully automated aircraft is that every plane in the sky would have to be fully automated for it to work. This is a big reason fully autonomous cars are not full proof. Too many human variables out there. Basically all airspace would have to be banned to manned flight. Just because there’s a possibility that theses types of aircraft are feasible in this timeline, the timeline to replace every aircraft in use today would be much longer wouldn’t it?

 

most current aircraft will probably not be backwards compatible to single pilot ops and certainly not autonomous. Even if (and that’s a big if) there is a product in the next decade that can be flown single pilot, the hundreds of current aircraft being delivered now and in the near future will still need two pilots for a long time.


I think it is far more likely they will skip single pilot and go straight to autonomous, and I just can’t see that happening for a long time.

 

I think the young pilots coming in now will certainly be the last true two pilot operators and honestly they will see no pilot ops in their career.

If you have 25 or less left and not flying WB I think you are safe. I really don’t see this as something that can deployed in the timeframe that note said.

 

filler filler

 

how long has it taken for CPDLC domestic to come online? This would be much harder and on a larger scale

 

That’s my take as well. I think the ice cream and movie critic gravy train will come to an end sometime in the next 10-15 years. At bare minimum double augmentation will go away. I don’t think I’ll see automation replace a two person flight deck in the next 30 years, but I definitely think the next generation will bear the brunt of it.

I’m more worried about the displacement of millions out of the workforce by automation/AI in other sectors absolutely destroying demand for air travel/other nonessential purchases.

 

👆👆
That’s the first forward threat briefed in this thread!

 

That time line is extremely optimistic

When was the last time there has been a significant technological advancement in the airline piloting game?

How long, how much money and how many test miles have self driving cars racked up?

Remember the woman that was killed by the self driving Uber (with a safety driver) in Phoenix? The was more than 5 years ago! And how far have we come since then? Googles' Waymo project has alone cost over 2 Billion dollars. And a traffic cone set on the hood completely disables those cars. How much is it going to cost to develop an FAA approved self flying jet?

I'm not losing any sleep over losing my airline pilot seat yet