Airline Pilot Central Forums - Economic Impacts of Iran War

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Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine (Post 4015770)

I think you are correct. That does not mean I like it, but honestly I do believe we put ourselves in a corner and the only way out is to turn Iran in to Gaza. Judging by your posts, you personally, might like that. But since the point of this thread is the ECONOMIC impacts, let's stay on topic to keep the moderators happy.

I will join you and put my realpolitik hat on. The current Iranian regime is a long-term existential threat. The regime is similar to the USSR in that they have to be in a perpetual cold war with the rest of the world to justify their authoritarian rule. Just as Orwell wrote, getting an entire country to direct their hate towards an outside figure distracts them from their day-to-day issues. The U.S. serves as that punching bag. Do they want a hot war or just a cold war to justify their existence? For the sake of this, let's say they want war. How can we eliminate this regime in a way that has the least economic impact on us then?

Let's see how Xi Jinping is handling his similar goal of taking over Taiwan. He is trying to make a stable economy. He is popping housing bubbles, investing in strategic industries, and is making an alternate finical system separate from the West. At the same time, he is modernizing his military. Both of these are done with long horizons. China's economic modernization has taken decades, and so has it's millitary. It is nowhere near ready to invade Taiwan, but Xi Jinping has put his country on a roadmap where that could happen in 10-20 years.

Meanwhile, we seem to have stumbled into Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu clearly needed this war to happen now since the only way he can evade prosecution is to be in a constant state of war. He forced our country to commit to a war before we were ready. Everyone knew war with Iran was going to require Naval action, yet our Navy is in a transition state. We had no minesweepers in place and new drone swarms have absorbed all of our escort capacity. We don't have the naval power to protect the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that we didn't have minesweepers in theater shows that this was poorly planned.

If our goal was to replicate Venezuela, then we failed on that too. If this was planned correctly, we would have used the CIA to reach out to leaders in the government who would take over and be willing to negotiate. IF we did that, then Israel killed them which took away our assets. So our next best option is a complete revolution. Again, we would have needed the CIA to establish resistance groups years before we attempted this. There are plenty of middle class people in Iran who want a revolution. But they never had a chance to organize. Do you really think some doctor in Tehran will turn on is TV one night to see the U.S. killed the Ayatollah and say, "Yeah, I was going to eat dinner with my kids, but I guess I have to overthrow the government that recently killed thousands for protesting even though I have no idea how functional this totalitarian state is right now." So we had no plan to replace the leaders in government and no plan to organize the local population. That leaves only one path... total war.

The only way out of this mess is to completely destroy Iran. Bombing them to the stone age and declaring victory won't be enough. We will simply create a generation of terrorist who want revenge and will will start the cycle all over again. THAT is why Netanyahu has turned Gaza to rubble. The only way to prevent future terrorist is to kill the entire population. Again, morals aside... do we have the capability to do that? How many cruise missiles will it take to level Iran? I don't see how an air campaign can accomplish our goals. Since you seem very gung-ho on this, how do you think this war ends? Do we eliminate the current stat of Iran?... What will it cost? Do we cut our losses, declare victory, and leave?...won't we simply be right in the same place we were 6 months ago but now with our best weapons depleted and our national debt even higher?

Xi Jinping is loving this! All of our expensive missiles are being used, or Navy is pushed to their limits, and our debt is ballooning. If we cant protect the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, we have no shot of stopping China from taking Taiwan in 10 years.

All of this.. Best post on the entire topic.

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Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine (Post 4015770)

This is a great summary.

To turn Iran into Gaza, I think there is a non-zero chance that we nuke them.

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Originally Posted by METO Guido (Post 4015673)

Short answer, absolutely yes. Sign a treaty, this war is over. If not, you know it’s a fight that had to happen sooner, later. Sustain the operation long enough, they’ll eat the cheese.

They were in the process of negotiating when the U.S. bombed them along with Israel. The message sent to Iran was the whole thing is a farce to move troops and equipment into position.

Sustain the operation longevity enough, they’ll eat cheese? Who ate cheese in Vietnam? Afghanistan?

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Originally Posted by 11atsomto (Post 4015747)

One thing I DO know. If they had the capability to destroy us….you bet your carne asada theyd do it in a Tehrani minute.

Because Fox told you, or was it OAN? How many ICBM nukes do you envision it would take Iran to destroy a country the size of America?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine (Post 4015770)

Gaza, the size of Philly with 2 million people.

Iran, the size of Alaska with 90 million people.

Good luck.

Quote:

The only way out of this mess is to completely destroy Iran. Bombing them to the stone age and declaring victory won't be enough. We will simply create a generation of terrorist who want revenge and will will start the cycle all over again. THAT is why Netanyahu has turned Gaza to rubble. The only way to prevent future terrorist is to kill the entire population. Again, morals aside... do we have the capability to do that? How many cruise missiles will it take to level Iran? I don't see how an air campaign can accomplish our goals. Since you seem very gung-ho on this, how do you think this war ends? Do we eliminate the current stat of Iran?... What will it cost? Do we cut our losses, declare victory, and leave?...won't we simply be right in the same place we were 6 months ago but now with our best weapons depleted and our national debt even higher?

Eliminate 90 million people?

Good luck.

The “only” way out of this mess is to take our ball and go home.

Quote:

Xi Jinping is loving this! All of our expensive missiles are being used, or Navy is pushed to their limits, and our debt is ballooning. If we cant protect the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, we have no shot of stopping China from taking Taiwan in 10 years.

Of course not. You really think we will take on China? Not easy to attack a country that holds all your debt and can send numerous ICBMs with nukes.

All the talk about Iran being a world threat, what a joke. You’ve seen the last 3 yrs of a Russian aggression towards Ukraine and Europe, 100,000+ dead, and no one even dared bomb Putin or Moscow. Wonder why? Oh that’s right, they are a nuclear country.

If Iran had no desire to pursue nuclear weapons, they most definitely do now. Full of mountainous regions they could have facilities today enriching uranium and we’d have zero clue.

If I had to guess, one day just like Pakistan there’s going to be a successful nuke test underground in Iran and they will announce to the world. And like India and Pakistan, who went to war 3 times since the independence in 1947, and zero wars since going nuke power in 1998, there will be a forced stalemate peace among Iran, the U.S. and Israel.

And maybe that’s the best we can hope for the Middle East.

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Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4015797)

Attempts to flip Vietnam/Afghanistan into rule of law cultures were 127% misguided. For which we pay a grievous price. True.

Revolutionary guard storm troopers just smoked what, 20k of their own to remain in power?Displacing a 50 year regime is beyond our control. Still doesn’t mean it’ll never happen. More to the point, Iran triggers a successful test, you tell me, what’ll IDF’s next move be?

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Originally Posted by METO Guido (Post 4015802)

They didn’t. Israel and the U.S. did. I think the west doesn’t realize their hatred of the Rev Guard is far less than their hatred of being bombed by the U.S. and Israel simultaneously.

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Displacing a 50 year regime is beyond our control. Still doesn’t mean it’ll never happen. More to the point, Iran triggers a successful test, you tell me, what’ll IDF’s next move be?

Stalemate. Or a mutually assured destruction. Stalemate sounds better. The good news about religious fanatic leaders in the Middle East, including Bibi, is they value staying in power above tasting uranium or plutonium.

Interesting how we have changed as a nation. Here is a portion of a speech in 1941.

Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 -- a date which will live in infamy -- the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.

The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific.

Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American island of Oahu, the Japanese ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. And while this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or of armed attack.

It will be recorded that the distance of Hawaii from Japan makes it obvious that the attack was deliberately planned many days or even weeks ago. During the intervening time, the Japanese government has deliberately sought to deceive the United States by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

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Originally Posted by CGLimits (Post 4015696)

I think you forgot to mention the context in which she said that. I am pretty sure she never said “ As soon as I am president I am going to attack Iran”. Maybe address the question and the full answer…or maybe you missed the entire video.

Funny how some politicians are always afforded "context" while others are not, isn't it?

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Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4015669)

Riddle me this, is it a war crime to attack civilian infrastructure simply due to a commerce reason (oil flow)??????

There's no riddle. Some specific civil infrastructure is protected by LOAC, basic survival stuff like water supply, hospitals.

Economic infrastructure is not inherently protected. It is commonly (especially by the US) not targeted initially, better to go after military assets first and see if that encourages them to negotiate. Next up would be mil industrial facilities, then maybe civil economic infrastructure.

But in this case oil economic infrastructure could go to the top of the list at any time. Probably better to capture/blockade rather than destroy, for several reasons.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4015797)

Gaza, the size of Philly with 2 million people.

Iran, the size of Alaska with 90 million people.

Good luck.

Eliminate 90 million people?

Good luck.
...

Of course not. You really think we will take on China? Not easy to attack a country that holds all your debt and can send numerous ICBMs with nukes.

That is the entire point of my post. I am saying IF Iran was truly a threat to America, the only solution would be total war. And if we go down that path, it would require more ammunition than our economy (the point of this thread) could ever afford. Taking our ball and going home, while the cheaper option, is also bad for the economy. We waste expensive munitions, we damage oil infrastructure, and we supply the world with another generation of terrorists. It's a quagmire where we lose no matter what path we pick.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4015885)

Looks like Iran is having TACO for dinner today.

”A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds".

Ralph Waldo Emerson