Duffy Merger Comments
04-12-2026 | 11:57 AM
#31
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Joined: May 2023
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It would absolutely be the strong preference of the AS team that they be the ones to keep their jobs.
But that probably precludes AA. Although Doug pulled it off. I don't know if the AS team would be willing to move to Dallas... they're pretty marinated in their SEA/PNW lifestyle and culture. Look at the resumes of the leaders, where they've worked, where they went to school. Definitely the SEA home team.
Although Boeing might approve of an AA acquisition.
But that probably precludes AA. Although Doug pulled it off. I don't know if the AS team would be willing to move to Dallas... they're pretty marinated in their SEA/PNW lifestyle and culture. Look at the resumes of the leaders, where they've worked, where they went to school. Definitely the SEA home team.
Although Boeing might approve of an AA acquisition.
It's not like it should take much convincing to move to become the CEO (etc.) of American Airlines.
04-12-2026 | 06:40 PM
#32
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Joined: Jul 2012
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That's a good question, and I think the answer is complicated.
I think AS has some ties with Boeing. It is opaque to us peons what the exact nature of that it is, but I think other airline managers have a better idea.
There are corporate raiders who buy up unbalanced companies just to liquidate and sell off the parts. But that's not something you can do with any large airline in this era... too big to fail is also too big to get severely disrupted. So while AS might have a pile of cash, that's not really going to be of any value to raiders... they would need the cash to operate the airline, which is something they don't know how to do and don't want to do.
Airlines are quasi-public utilities in this era... you can own it but there limits as to what you can do with it.
When another airline buys an airline, it always seems to be pre-coordinated with large investors and BoD. You're not likely to be buying retail shares on the open market, you just get some larger investors to sell enough large blocks to shift control. That will normally still be at a premium, but it's negotiated in advance, not a bidding frenzy on the NYSE.
Trying to do an uncoordinated hostile takeover doesn't seem to be common with airlines in this era.
I think AS has some ties with Boeing. It is opaque to us peons what the exact nature of that it is, but I think other airline managers have a better idea.
There are corporate raiders who buy up unbalanced companies just to liquidate and sell off the parts. But that's not something you can do with any large airline in this era... too big to fail is also too big to get severely disrupted. So while AS might have a pile of cash, that's not really going to be of any value to raiders... they would need the cash to operate the airline, which is something they don't know how to do and don't want to do.
Airlines are quasi-public utilities in this era... you can own it but there limits as to what you can do with it.
When another airline buys an airline, it always seems to be pre-coordinated with large investors and BoD. You're not likely to be buying retail shares on the open market, you just get some larger investors to sell enough large blocks to shift control. That will normally still be at a premium, but it's negotiated in advance, not a bidding frenzy on the NYSE.
Trying to do an uncoordinated hostile takeover doesn't seem to be common with airlines in this era.
On a side note do you know anything about Nat Pieper? An American pilot said he was at a company function where he spoke. He said he was the first executive at American, since Crandal, that he heard speaking that didn’t sound like a complete moron.
Last edited by beancounter; 04-12-2026 at 07:03 PM.
04-12-2026 | 09:10 PM
#33
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,098
Likes: 788
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I think lifestyle preferences are secondary to just about everything involving this kind of move. They'll find a way to make it happen (if it makes financial sense), and those who don't want to make the move can stay behind and find something else to do.
It's not like it should take much convincing to move to become the CEO (etc.) of American Airlines.
It's not like it should take much convincing to move to become the CEO (etc.) of American Airlines.
But many or most of the other AS execs and board members are *very* involved in the local community, and have been their entire adult lives. I'd expect them to tend to steer the ship in the direction of bite-size acquisitions where the HQ remains firmly rooted in SEATAC.
But who knows, maybe they'd think they could buy AA and keep the HQ in SEA.
Again, Boeing probably gets a vote. Not sure how they'd feel about their pet airline relocating.
04-13-2026 | 05:18 AM
#34
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Joined: Jun 2021
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From: Joystick Operator
Legacies are doing how they are now and running the country because of M&A, but now is the time to stop, because, well the poor pilot groups won't like taking a smaller company in....
There is zero way for any small airlines to grow much at all in spaces already dominated by 5 huge companies who make their money off credit cards and not actually flying planes. So yeah, M&A needs to happen.
04-13-2026 | 05:25 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2013
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Likes: 309
From: Sitting SC at the Five Towns
04-13-2026 | 07:37 AM
#36
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Ah, so we care about pilot groups, but only at the legacies... got it.
Legacies are doing how they are now and running the country because of M&A, but now is the time to stop, because, well the poor pilot groups won't like taking a smaller company in....
There is zero way for any small airlines to grow much at all in spaces already dominated by 5 huge companies who make their money off credit cards and not actually flying planes. So yeah, M&A needs to happen.
Legacies are doing how they are now and running the country because of M&A, but now is the time to stop, because, well the poor pilot groups won't like taking a smaller company in....
There is zero way for any small airlines to grow much at all in spaces already dominated by 5 huge companies who make their money off credit cards and not actually flying planes. So yeah, M&A needs to happen.
*Individual* pilots might want a merger, if they live in a certain base, or are very young and might benefit long-term from expanded network, fleet types, etc.
And certainly no pilot is obligated in any way to "desire" or "advocate" for mergers with broke airlines, for the purpose of sharing your seniority and economic prospects with the less fortunate. Everybody has known for 15+ years which four airlines (five if you count AS and just want job security) would have the best career prospects, if it was that important you should have pursued one of them (almost *anybody* could have for a few years).
If your game plan was to camp out at a second/third tier airline, build seniority and hope it would transfer to a legacy someday... well that's risky business. Can't be butt hurt if your desired great career didn't come looking for you.
Not that it matters anyway, pilot groups almost never have a say in mergers. The rare cases where we might have a say due to a hypothetical need to relax scope, I would expect the group in question to play hard-ball and protect their interests by getting something valuable in exchange.
04-13-2026 | 08:40 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 6,558
Likes: 309
From: Sitting SC at the Five Towns
There's no reason at all that any pilot GROUP at a non-broke airline would want a merger with any airline, especially one with poor economic prospects... the acquired pilot group will get seniority, but then everybody will get to suffer equally from the inevitable housecleaning and "synergies".
*Individual* pilots might want a merger, if they live in a certain base, or are very young and might benefit long-term from expanded network, fleet types, etc.
And certainly no pilot is obligated in any way to "desire" or "advocate" for mergers with broke airlines, for the purpose of sharing your seniority and economic prospects with the less fortunate. Everybody has known for 15+ which four airlines (five if you count AS and just want job security) would have the best career prospects, if it was that important you should have pursued one of them (almost *anybody* could have for a few years).
If you game plan was to camp out at second/third tier airline, build seniority and hope it would transfer to a legacy someday... well that's risky business.
Not that it matters anyway, pilot groups almost never have a say in mergers. The rare cases where we might have a say due to the need to relax scope, I would expect the group in question to play hard-ball and protect their interests by getting something valuable in exchange.
*Individual* pilots might want a merger, if they live in a certain base, or are very young and might benefit long-term from expanded network, fleet types, etc.
And certainly no pilot is obligated in any way to "desire" or "advocate" for mergers with broke airlines, for the purpose of sharing your seniority and economic prospects with the less fortunate. Everybody has known for 15+ which four airlines (five if you count AS and just want job security) would have the best career prospects, if it was that important you should have pursued one of them (almost *anybody* could have for a few years).
If you game plan was to camp out at second/third tier airline, build seniority and hope it would transfer to a legacy someday... well that's risky business.
Not that it matters anyway, pilot groups almost never have a say in mergers. The rare cases where we might have a say due to the need to relax scope, I would expect the group in question to play hard-ball and protect their interests by getting something valuable in exchange.
04-13-2026 | 01:35 PM
#38
Slam-Clicka
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,575
Likes: 91
Ah, so we care about pilot groups, but only at the legacies... got it.
Legacies are doing how they are now and running the country because of M&A, but now is the time to stop, because, well the poor pilot groups won't like taking a smaller company in....
There is zero way for any small airlines to grow much at all in spaces already dominated by 5 huge companies who make their money off credit cards and not actually flying planes. So yeah, M&A needs to happen.
Legacies are doing how they are now and running the country because of M&A, but now is the time to stop, because, well the poor pilot groups won't like taking a smaller company in....
There is zero way for any small airlines to grow much at all in spaces already dominated by 5 huge companies who make their money off credit cards and not actually flying planes. So yeah, M&A needs to happen.
04-13-2026 | 02:03 PM
#39
On Reserve
Joined: Jul 2023
Posts: 56
Likes: 23
Ed was pretty clear in what he saw coming. Business in the LCC/ULCC do not make financial sense anymore. He predicts there to be M&A in that area.
JBU, F9, and NK will get gobbled up. I think that’s what’s going to happen.
allows everyone to bring fares up and right size domestic capacity.
I don’t see how having AL and AA merge make sense and benefit the consumer.
I think the case will be made that those ULCC/LCC businesses are bound to fail and we will come and save them and have some type of olive branch to guarantee fares stay low. Obviously fares will go up, but hey the superpac Airlines for America usually get what they want in the end of the day…
idk, I just don’t see this playing out where JetBlue gets bought and the rest of the low cost carriers don’t get absorbed just like Ed said happened in 09/10/11.
no one knows, but it seems like the big boys are projecting what they want to happen in this industry.
from Ed on the earnings call
“You have a considerable portion of the industry that has not returned its cost of capital, has not made a profit in years. Going back over the last decade when we saw consolidation happen, we forget what drove consolidation. What drove consolidation was higher fuel prices back in 2009, 2010, 2011, and we were the leaders in that with the acquisition of Northwest in 2008.”
“I anticipate higher fuel prices will cause much more significant structural reform than we’ve seen over this period. COVID, I think, was a different animal, where no one was strong enough to engage in the type of rationalization that was necessary.”
“As we look forward to building a healthier business for the future, there’s a number of business models that I think their owners are going to start questioning whether they continue to commit capital to. However that plays out, it’s going to be of benefit to Delta.”
JBU, F9, and NK will get gobbled up. I think that’s what’s going to happen.
allows everyone to bring fares up and right size domestic capacity.
I don’t see how having AL and AA merge make sense and benefit the consumer.
I think the case will be made that those ULCC/LCC businesses are bound to fail and we will come and save them and have some type of olive branch to guarantee fares stay low. Obviously fares will go up, but hey the superpac Airlines for America usually get what they want in the end of the day…
idk, I just don’t see this playing out where JetBlue gets bought and the rest of the low cost carriers don’t get absorbed just like Ed said happened in 09/10/11.
no one knows, but it seems like the big boys are projecting what they want to happen in this industry.
from Ed on the earnings call
“You have a considerable portion of the industry that has not returned its cost of capital, has not made a profit in years. Going back over the last decade when we saw consolidation happen, we forget what drove consolidation. What drove consolidation was higher fuel prices back in 2009, 2010, 2011, and we were the leaders in that with the acquisition of Northwest in 2008.”
“I anticipate higher fuel prices will cause much more significant structural reform than we’ve seen over this period. COVID, I think, was a different animal, where no one was strong enough to engage in the type of rationalization that was necessary.”
“As we look forward to building a healthier business for the future, there’s a number of business models that I think their owners are going to start questioning whether they continue to commit capital to. However that plays out, it’s going to be of benefit to Delta.”
04-13-2026 | 04:26 PM
#40
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 688
Likes: 235
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