Jet Fuel Shortage
 

Jet Fuel Crunch Is Getting Severe With No Reprieve in Sight for Airlines

Countries in Asia and Europe are starting to run out of jet fuel, and it could take months for supplies to recover

PARIS—For more than a month, the war with Iran has choked off one of the world’s most critical sources of jet fuel, triggering a swift and dramatic shortage across the aviation world.

Airlines, airports and fuel suppliers are warning that Tuesday’s cease-fire deal—even if it holds—won’t solve the jet fuel crisis any time soon.

China, a refining powerhouse, has stopped exporting jet fuel so it can meet its own needs, and airports across Asia, including in Vietnam and Myanmar, are already running out of supply. Europe is on the cusp of severe shortages as soon as May if the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to global markets, isn’t fully reopened.


To cope, airlines are trimming their schedules and piling on fees. United Airlines has scrapped some red-eye and midweek flights, while Air France is charging business class passengers more to offset the fuel burden of their heavier seats. Korean Air declared its own corporate emergency, telling staff to cancel all nonessential travel.

The Middle East supplies about a fifth of the world’s jet fuel, a form of kerosene that is purer and can withstand the freezing temperatures at cruise altitudes. But with producers in the region locked out of the Strait of Hormuz, prices have surged to a record high of more than $200 a barrel, up from around $90 at this time last year.

President Trump’s temporary agreement with Iran offered some relief, but not much. Spot prices for jet fuel in the U.S. initially fell to $175 a barrel, before rising more than 2% on Thursday, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index. While Iran had agreed to reopen the crucial waterway after repeated strikes on commercial tankers, no ship carrying jet fuel has yet to pass through, according to tracking service Kpler.


In Europe, which gets about a quarter of its jet fuel from Gulf producers, the situation is getting severe. Without a dramatic change in tankers’ access to the strait, airports are weeks away from shortages akin to those currently playing out in Asia, an industry body wrote to the European Union’s transport commissioner.

“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next 3 weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” Olivier Jankovec, head of Airports Council International Europe, said in the letter dated April 9.

At the weekend, there were already signs that supplies at a handful of European airports are stretched, exacerbated by a storm in the Mediterranean that disrupted deliveries. Individual airports including in Italy, the U.K., Netherlands and France issued warnings to airlines that Jet A1, one of the most widely used types of jet fuel, was temporarily available in limited supply—or not at all.

Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of the war, far outpacing the rise in crude oil prices, which reflects how disproportionately concentrated jet fuel production is in the Persian Gulf. Specialists say it will take months before global supplies start to normalize.


“The first thing is getting the product that’s already been refined out and then getting comfortable with what the political situation is going to be,” said Dave Diulus, chief executive of JetFuel Direct, which connects buyers and sellers of the fuel. No clear picture has emerged yet about how badly jet fuel infrastructure in the region was hit after weeks of Iranian missile and drone strikes. Kuwaiti refineries, among the world’s biggest producers of jet fuel, have cut back production after being hit by Iran. That is complicating efforts to forecast just how quickly Gulf states can turn their taps back on.

“Pipelines have been attacked, refineries have been attacked, storage depots have been attacked,” said Hassan El-Houry, executive chairman of Menzies Aviation, the world’s biggest airport services company. “I’m not sure that we have the full knowledge of what has been damaged.”

It’s not only getting the jet fuel out of the Mideast that is causing the problem: Refiners outside the region also need the oil pumped in Gulf nations to produce enough of the product locally. That is especially true in Asian economies which buy about 85% of all the crude that passes through Hormuz, according to the International Air Transport Association.


China has halted jet fuel exports, reserving production for domestic airlines, which in turn have added fuel surcharges to airfares. In both Vietnam and Myanmar, shortages have been so severe that airlines have slashed operations, while foreign carriers have added fuel stops outside those countries to ensure they can fly back out.“It’s entirely possible that parts of Asia are just going to run out of fuel,” United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters in late March. “And today, some of that fuel comes to the U.S.” West Coast, he added, which means American airports could start to feel the squeeze soon.

U.S. carriers, which long ago abandoned expensive oil hedging strategies, have been hit particularly hard by the surge in prices. That was, in part, a bet that fuel price swings could be managed better by adjusting capacity and fares. This time, it has left airlines staring down billions of dollars in added costs, which they are trying to pass onto consumers with hopes that demand won’t be decimated.

The war has also left airlines largely shut out of critical airspace corridors in the Middle East that offer the quickest connections between Europe and Asia. That has carriers rerouting flights, which adds to flight-times and burns more fuel.

Australia’s Qantas, for example, has scrapped its direct flight from Perth to London—one of the world’s longest flights—and has asked passengers to bear with a refueling stop in Singapore. The change adds about an hour of flight time and an extra, fuel-intensive takeoff from Changi Airport.

Most Gulf countries have moved quickly this week to reopen airspace after the cease-fire, despite Iranian missiles continuing to target them. Europe’s aviation safety regulator on Thursday extended a formal advisory warning airlines against almost all operations in Mideast airspace until at least April 24.

Delta is also scaling back redeyes and low yield flights

Fake news, I was assured my many on here just one month ago Iran would capitulate in just a few days and the admin would insure tankers to allow their continued passage.

Now not only is that not coming tho fruition but the admin itself is blocking the straight.

You just can't make this stuff up.

hush, the geopolitical/military/history/economic masterminds have told us this overly qualified administration has… a plan

So there’s still three weeks to open the Strait?

Now Trump is blocking the entirety of the SOH. Not even Iranian oil can ship out.



Enjoy the upcoming gas prices!



I remember 2022 when the Biden “I did that!” Stickers were on gas pumps.



I better see the same for Trump now.

What happed to energy independent?

I’d think between Canada, ourselves and S America this shouldn’t cause much issue in the US, seems like BS price gouging

I just did a couple searches on a few items and this is what I found.

1. On mine sweeping / opening up SOH
Clearing the mines and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic is expected to be a slow, painstaking process that could take several weeks to several months, even after initial demining operations begin.
New Republic +1
While the U.S. military began “setting conditions” for mine clearance on April 11, 2026, by sending warships into the area, experts warn that the complex nature of the mining means the strait will not open immediately.lNew Republic +1
Key Factors Affecting Reopening Time

• Difficulty Locating Mines: Reports indicate that Iran laid mines in a scattered, "haphazard" manner, with some allowed to drift, meaning they did not record the locations of all deployed mines, making detection incredibly slow.
• Limited Mining Assets: The U.S. retired its dedicated, wooden-hulled Avenger-class minesweepers in 2025 and is now relying on newer, less tested technology, such as Littoral Combat Ships and underwater drones, which may prove slower in a "hot war" environment.
• Commercial Confidence: A "militarily clear" area is not immediately safe for commercial vessels. Insurance companies will require weeks of proof of safety before resuming coverage, meaning insurance hurdles will likely cause a longer-term economic impact than the physical demining.
• Volume of Traffic: With over 400 loaded tankers and 2,000 ships waiting to exit or enter, a full return to normal operations is likely to take until July 2026, according to some shipping analysts.

2. why are gas prices so high when the United States is Energy independent.


The U.S. is a major oil producer but not immune to high gas prices because oil is a globally traded commodity, not a localized one. Prices are set by international market supply and demand; when global events (like conflicts or supply cuts) raise prices, U.S. consumers pay that same high price.

Key reasons for this include:

• Global Pricing Market: Even with high domestic production, US refineries sell to the world market and compete with global prices

Korea supplies something like 70% of west coast jet fuel, now that Korea isn't getting crude, no jet fuel for the west coast.

If anything it's the opposite, seems some powerful people with deep pockets are keeping a lid on commodity prices somehow. Even with recent upticks in production from other places, we are at least 5 million barrels a day short. Oil should be trading in the $200+ range by now.

True, and when calculating fuel prices, be sure to add missile & bomb expenses, oil company tax payer funded subsidies, and the cost of dead soldiers.