We need to watch the market closely...!
08-16-2007, 04:47 AM
#1
On Reserve
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: 777 FO
Posts: 20
We need to watch the market closely...!
We need to watch the market closely...!
Stock, S&P 500 is plunging ....what about the sensitive Airline stocks...?
It is something that we all need to watch.
Can someone... come forward..... on the field ? I am interesting in your Respectfully opinions.
Thanks
SexyJeny
Stock, S&P 500 is plunging ....what about the sensitive Airline stocks...?
It is something that we all need to watch.
Can someone... come forward..... on the field ? I am interesting in your Respectfully opinions.
Thanks
SexyJeny
08-16-2007, 05:48 AM
#4
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,989
There are a couple of named storms. Erin hit Corpus without much effect, but the market may sense hurricane season causing fuel supply issues.
Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.
I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.
So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.
We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.
Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.
I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.
So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.
We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.
08-16-2007, 06:05 AM
#5
On Reserve
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: 777 FO
Posts: 20
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
There are a couple of named storms. Erin hit Corpus without much effect, but the market may sense hurricane season causing fuel supply issues.
Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.
I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.
So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.
We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.
Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.
I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.
So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.
We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.
Thanks for your info....... I need to add though The Yen is the problem right now ...also call liquidity..
Traders said the yen was inversely tracking the fortunes of stock prices, which fell after mortgage lender American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. said it could not fund home loans and may have to liquidate assets. "The forex market ( Currency Exchange) is tracking the stock market step by step, Every time stocks turn lower, it's a sign for investors to buy yen."
I have some money invested on the Japanese Yen..and I am really happy this morning ..... but I have to tell you I am little worry about this market these days. The travel Market in my opinion, is extremely susceptible with NY stocks Exchange.
Just a thought.
Thanks
SexyJeny
08-16-2007, 06:29 AM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: Flying the SEC
Posts: 2,350
Originally Posted by SexyJeny
Thanks for your info....... I need to add though The Yen is the problem right now ...also call liquidity..
Traders said the yen was inversely tracking the fortunes of stock prices, which fell after mortgage lender American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. said it could not fund home loans and may have to liquidate assets. "The forex market ( Currency Exchange) is tracking the stock market step by step, Every time stocks turn lower, it's a sign for investors to buy yen."
I have some money invested on the Japanese Yen..and I am really happy this morning ..... but I have to tell you I am little worry about this market these days. The travel Market in my opinion, is extremely susceptible with NY stocks Exchange.
Just a thought.
Thanks
SexyJeny
Traders said the yen was inversely tracking the fortunes of stock prices, which fell after mortgage lender American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. said it could not fund home loans and may have to liquidate assets. "The forex market ( Currency Exchange) is tracking the stock market step by step, Every time stocks turn lower, it's a sign for investors to buy yen."
I have some money invested on the Japanese Yen..and I am really happy this morning ..... but I have to tell you I am little worry about this market these days. The travel Market in my opinion, is extremely susceptible with NY stocks Exchange.
Just a thought.
Thanks
SexyJeny
08-16-2007, 08:02 AM
#7
HOSED BY PBS AGAIN
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,713
I've taken a massive beating in the market lately (last two weeks) and I've got nothing closely remote to the housing market...........a battery manufacturer, a purse manufacturer, etc. I think these jerks running these markets need to be looked into. If someone THINKS there's a tropical storm brewing off the coast of Africa, the oil markets soar...........for NO justifiable reason other than "well, there MIGHT be a storm". Unfortunately, the airlines are getting killed by it, and with this inept administration "holding down the oil fort" for their friends, it's been devastating to everyone BUT them. Halliburton is moving its headquarters to the middle east and nary a word is said. Bush is complaining that the democrats are ruining everything and raising taxes, but he's yet to say how we're paying for this botched up war that he continues to throw our hard earned money into (with no end in sight). CAL took a massive beating yesterday for no reason. There was NO news other than a tropical depression that MIGHT cancel a few flights in IAH. Wow, good reason to lose 20% in one day, huh? Something is wrong with the markets, but there seems to be no urgent hurry for anyone to find out what the problem is. The little guys are getting killed, meanwhile all the experts continue putting their sights on killing more of us off. Pathetic, isn't it? I'm so sick of how this country is being run. 90% of our products are made in CHINA. No wonder we're turning into one of the largest debtor nations in the world. Sorry for the political rant, but I'm P*SSED............ And the markets CONTINUE their beautiful plunge today.............
08-16-2007, 09:22 AM
#9
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,989
This really is not a storm unless you are a hedge fund which was playing in the mortgage market.
Various analysts are already calling the airlines over sold with a lot of upside potential over the next six months - particularly CAL.
I wish I had my check back from my sale of all my airline holdings last week. I would jump back in at these prices.
Rick, you are smart. I'm thinking about moving more and more assets to something not in USD.
Various analysts are already calling the airlines over sold with a lot of upside potential over the next six months - particularly CAL.
I wish I had my check back from my sale of all my airline holdings last week. I would jump back in at these prices.
Rick, you are smart. I'm thinking about moving more and more assets to something not in USD.
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