Pilot Shortage-History Repeats Itself?
 

Time Magazine: 1964

Some things never change...

The Pilot Shortage
Friday, Jun. 26, 1964 Article ToolsPrintEmailReprintsSphereAddThisRSS


When the commercial jets flew into service, they made the airline pilot a surplus commodity. Because the airlines could carry many more people much faster, they needed smaller fleets of planes and fewer men to fly them. The lines laid off hundreds of pilots, demoted countless others to lower ranks in the cockpit. Now the situation has made a full turn; for the first time in the annals of peacetime aviation, there is a serious pilot shortage.

TWA says it "desperately needs pilots," recently hired 190 of them, its first newcomers since 1957. To sell flying careers to young men, it sends teams of pilots on speaking tours around the country. Pan Am hopes to hire up to 275 pilots this year. Eastern has been recruiting at Air Force bases, recently added 400. TWA, Eastern and United also have been advertising in the help-wanted columns, and United is busy at its large flight-training school at Denver, intends to break in more than 1,000 men over the next two years.

The pay is high, and can become skyhigh. Pilots who handle the large jets begin at $6,000 to $6,720 the first year, then soar to some $35,000, plus many benefits, by the ninth year—for 85 airborne hours a month.

Why, then, the shortage? For one thing, the surge in travel has led airlines to greatly expand their fleets; last week TWA announced the largest equipment order in its history, 33 jets totaling $162 million. The airlines have usually picked up many pilots from the ranks of young officers who quit the Air Force after a few years; but with the switch to missiles, the military is training fewer pilots. Simultaneously, many of the pioneering pilots of the 1920s and 1930s are reaching the compulsory retirement age of 60. The Air Line Pilots Association figures that 1,400 older commercial pilots—10% of the nation's total—will get their wings clipped within the next decade. Says A.L.P.A.'s magazine: "Only a national emergency requiring the training of thousands will create a surplus."

Here's the link:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...898200,00.html

BTW: $35000 adjusted for 2007 $$$ is $235,000

That's the key point for me. ;)

As a first year guy - I'd be happy with $35,000:eek:

Shortage is really only at the regional level, not so much at at the majors.

Not Yet, and maybe not for a while. But the pipeline is much smaller than in years past. It's been a long dry spell, the longest since 1957-1964! But I firmly believe history repeats itself. Whether it will repeat itself in time to save the current generation of pilots remains to be seen. JMHO

It will be nice if/when all of the airlines can get contracts that bring pay back to the levels they once were.

Just one of AIRCONs many tricks is to endorse media feeds to perpetuate the illusion of pilot shortages (post deregulation). Doing so has created the surplus of pilots management has enjoyed for decades. Few pilots figure this out until they have spent all their money on flight training and spent 10 years or more in the industry. Some will never figure it out.

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"They will never know what hit them." http://www.aircon.org/what_is_aircon/index.htm

Oh yeah, I forgot about the conspiracy. Never-mind.

Back then you were flying a Martin 404 on regional routes when you first got hired, so in a way you were a regional pilot.

That is exactly the problem. I don't believe there is pilot shortage even at the regional level, just a shortage of pilots willing to work for low pay with no guarantee even to make it to the majors.

Alrighty then!

History Does Repeat itself
 

History does repeat itself however time does press on.

I am sure that somewhere there are blacksmiths and cobblers waiting for their industries to go back to the good old days.

Times have changed in the airline industry as well. There might be a surge in pilot hiring but the regionals, LCC's and ULCC's are taking over. The good old days will never return.

SkyHigh

You can't tell if blacksmiths and the cobblers agreed to work for less that their industries would come back. There are LCC's that compensate pilots well. Good old days is a relative term. From what I understand talking with veterans from the 50's, it seemed like the end of the world when jets came.

I'm not making predictions here, simply reflecting on the past. But every generation has it's catastrophes and it always seems to the current generation like "everything has change forever" and "it's the end of the world".

Maybe, maybe not.

My Aviation World
 

My aviation world is gone forever. To me career armageddon has already taken place in the fact that pay and working conditions have deteriorated to below a point where it is worthwhile to pursue.

The next generation seems braced for a life of poverty. I am sure that they will not be disappointed. Its all relative I guess.

SkyHigh

Blacksmiths and cobblers went away because of a significant shift in their industries.

It's just business, not personal. When my great-great-great granddad gave up the horse for a car, the local blacksmith lost another customer.....and eventually went out of business.

When the Regionals can't get enough pilots, they lower the mins. When they still can't get enough pilots, the wages will go up.

It's just business, not personal.

At one of my interviews for a Major, the Capt's interviewing me asked if I'd take a job at their feeder and I didn't even hesitate when I said no, didn't even pause for a moment to think about it. When they asked me to explain, I said I have a wife and kids and I'm not taking a huge pay cut for something that "might" happen. If you can sign a paper contract "guaranteeing" something will happen, then I might consider it.

to me that is the dumbest thing in the world. it may not be personal to the employeer but to the person getting the shaft it is. it's like saying don't take it personal that I slept with your wife, it was just sex...

If you can't understand the difference, then I would highly recommend you never open your own business.

And, Employee/Employer screwing is a consensual relationship. When the Man drops the boom, it's either worth staying or it's not.

You either believe in a free market economy, or you don't.

Personally, I will choose the opportunities present in Capitalism versus the slavery of Communism. Downside is opportunity is a double edged sword.

If you have the chance stop by 1300 19th Street, N.W., Suite 750 Washington, D.C.

You will find a group of professionals who have one objective. Wages will not go up. They have a plan for the industry. MPL.

I still say the pilot shortage is BS. The aviation industry is one that has been spoiled for years with an abundance of labor and suddenly they are not getting enough "suitable applicants" as Skywest likes to say. Not that they arent getting applicants that meet thier mins and can do they job, but that they just arent good enough for thier delicate sensibilities..ie they have speeding tickets or look arab or something. How many industries require you to have a complete and accurate 10 year employment history with no gaps greater then 30 days and all the other BS they ask for. Even the police department doesnt require that.

If there does turn out to be a shortage I hope it is a deep one. It will be good for pilots and the airlines deserve it.

Regionals
 

When regionals can't find enough pilots they just lower the minimums. Its just business. They can't find enough now so the mins are down. Next year they will be trolling high schools.

Wages will not go up. There is an unending supply of people who are willing to lay down 60K in training for a job that pays 18K.

Aviation has made a major shift. Airplanes are much easier to fly. Loans and university programs have made it much easier to become a professional pilot and management has learned that pilots will work for nothing.

SkyHigh

Automation essentially equates to less pay. The more the aircraft can do, the less the pilot needs to do or monitor. This isn't anything profound. Airliners have become more safety-laden and technologically advanced which has led to taking the pilot out of the loop. That translates into lower pay. As many have already said, the current generation of RJ's are practically idiot-proof. That doesn't mean that things can't go wrong, but in general you're not flying the same equipment or technology from years ago. Not even close. Think about the capability of the avionics these days. Even ATC support has come a long way in terms of coverage.

It's not your father's airline any more.

Those high salaries were also to compensate folks who were in essence pioneers in the industry. Things have come a long way since then. Piloting a plane now can be done by a greater pool of candidates.

Greater Pool
 

Lets not forget that 15 years ago if you had less than 20/20 vision without using glasses or were not height and weight proportional you were practically considered a cripple. Pilots went through days of physicals and psychiatric testing as part of the interview. 30 was considered to be to old. The door was only open for a small portion of our national demographic. Fall even a little bit outside of the norm and you were done.

Today we have lasik surgery and all kinds of short, fat, smart and stupid people who are eligible to become airline pilots. There are even amputees and all kinds of disabled pilots who are now eligible to fly. It opens up the industry to a much wider group of people.

Companies probably only have left the ability to screen pilots on things like parking tickets and credit checks.

SH

In my 12 years in the industry, not once has anyones pay at any airline that I've ever heard of been based on how easy an airplane is to fly. It's based on what the union can negotiate with the company and what the pilots are willing to accept. Never have I heard that management thinks that the airplanes are easier to fly, therefore you should be paid less. It's always something else.

No offense, but this is exactly the problem. A critical mass of pilots are post deregulation. They have no idea what the career was and what was lost. They think 6 figures is what pilots have always made and if they break 100K after 4yrs of college, 50-100k of training and 10-15 yrs working their way up the ladder they made it. They just don't understand inflation and the time value of money.

http://www.landings.com/_landings/st...ainicarus.html

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"They will never know what hit them" http://aircon.org/what_is_aircon/index.htm

So, SH,
what you are saying is that first the airlines expanded the number of medically qualified pilots (more supply, actually happened as a result of the application of ADA to airline's. e.g. If I can hold a 1st class, why am I unemployable).....then when they were still hurting they eventually lowered the mins (more supply)......and what does the future hold?

There are only so many pilot's willing to fly RJs at the poverty level wages the regionals are offered.....and the demand keeps increasing.

And what happens when the demand is greater than the supply?

And Seeav8tor, when you look at the time value of money????? Why is it that airline fares are so cheap compared to where they were 30 years ago. Shoot, a mere 15 years ago it cost me just under 1500$ just to fly to/from London---and that was an advance purchase fare.

The ATA and AIRCON have determined carefully planned ab initio training training will prevent a shortage of pilot applicants from ever happening at ANY rate of pay. Solution: pilot funded MPL. If that doesn't work airline funded or subsidized MPL. Can you think of a model for this? Hint: Military.

Once the MPL is accepted in the US you will see it rapidly adopted at universities. A college junior will be accepted into his/her senior year with a aircraft specific MPL training and conditional job offer in hand. Not too many shades away from a ROTC cadet. This is really going to tick off some who have "paid their dues" and watch the newbies take cuts in line. It will however, accomplish the "prime directive" of AIRCON. The program could end up in the local community college as part of a 2 year program. Right next to welding and diesel repair.

Ticket prices, supply and demand. Since it's against the law to collude against the consumer they have to focus their effort and collude against labor.

http://www.aircon.org/what_is_aircon/index.htm

Did you get the job?

Not that one, thank God.

None taken. I realize that this profession has been chopped down at the knees. We can make sweeping statements about what has caused our profession's downturn, but when it really comes down to it, it's the pilots that vote for these contracts and it will be the pilots that dig ourselves out of this hole we're in. This critical mass of pilots that are post deregulation have to be willing to strike to get what they want even in the face of management stating that they will shut down the airline if they do. That will be hard for many to stomach, but it must be done.

Post 9-11
 

Post deregulation guys expect less but post 9-11 pilots are braced for a life of poverty. They think it is sacrilegious to ask for much more from management than the basics to sustain life.

The future will produce pilot groups that will cut each others throats to stay in the saddle. Cadet programs will be designed to put High School Kids into indentured servitude to repay their company sponsored training and what could be a better work force than that?

SkyHigh

So many??
 

There is an unending supply of people eager to avoid getting a real job and who have parents stupid enough to co-sign the loan. Regionals will have no trouble finding eager candidates. The job isn't very difficult anymore.

In the past at least the pilot supply was limited by physical factors. Now just about anyone can get a job.

All this adds up to less wages and harder times yet to come.

SH

It only takes 90 days now to get a commercial multi license.

pilots and safety
 

There's no question it has become a less sophisticated vocation than it was 25 years ago. While overall safety has not been compromised and has in fact improved, the difference is mostly due to systems simplification and higher reliability in transport aircraft than due to an increase in the ability of the professional pilot. Competition has continually increased among the airlines, making them more willing to consider candidates that do not fit into the once prevalent (and stereotypical) image of the exceedingly competent person.

There was a time when modern aircraft were so finicky and their systems so demanding that a paying passenger would feel unsafe without a truly impressive person acting as pilot, due to the number of problems that historically proved fatal in even the most routine flight. The description of aircraft operation has changed so much on the last 40 years that system-based problems proving fatal in previous eras simply does not occur.

A major area needing improvement in airline safety, and in my opinion the final one, is called "human factors" by academia. HF is the interaction of human beings with sophisticated equipment. It plagues air safety statistics to this day and is the topic of avante-garde research and opinion. Comair Flight 5191 and Pinnacle Flight 3701 are examples of current "human factors" related losses.

When this problem is solved, and without a doubt it will be, the airline safety record will be utterly flawless and the idea that a pilot is a guardian against the unknown technical calamity posed by technological innovation will be no more. While occasionally there still are mechanical problems solved in a show of skill as in the case of Jet Blue Flight 292, or in a few cases not solved as in the case of American Flight 587, the level of skill overall tends to become less as time goes by and machinery becomes more advanced. Flying people from place to place has lost its intrigue perhaps, but as time goes by less innocent persons will die from human and technological factors.

Perhaps the question after that will be what is the value of an uneventful life.

-Cub

So this doom and gloom poverty talk doesn't seem to match reality.

Sure, I think we ought to work for better wages.

Sure, I think we've lost a lot.

But let's not exaggerate.

I paid $25k for my ratings. I'm a (barely) second-year FO at a regional. My winter monthly paychecks would put me a hair under fifty grand a year. My summer ones, a hair over sixty.

Ten to fourteen days off a month, depending on how much open time I want vs. home time I want. Three of those days are day trips.

Could it be better? Yes, I've got friends working at banks making twice that. Could it be worse? Yes, I've got friend with graduate degrees making half that.

I'd love to make it better. I think I'm worth more. I'll strike to prove it.

But let's not throw around lurid (and false) stories of getting a hundred grand a year in debt for no future but $20k/yr. It makes us look like liars.

the only shortage is the shortage of airline management to staff an airline properly...........They want the world to believe there is not enough qualified pilots this way they don't take the blame, its a huge financial incentive to run an airline thin on pilots............

Well
 

You might have gotten away with less but that does not mean that everyone else isn't 100K in debt. It also doesn't mean that everyone makes 50K either.

The local University flight program estimated 55K to get all the ratings. A closer number seems to be 80K plus four years of college. 100K in debt is easy to do in aviation.

Additionally, my guess is that most here are new to the industry and perhaps have as much as 35 to 40 years left in their careers. If you were to look at how far aviation has plummeted in that time and project the continued decline 40 years into the future it is very grim indeed.

These will be remembered as the good old days. Just wait the bill is on its way.

SkyHigh

Hi!

Skyhigh said: That's possible. Sometime in the future, regionals MAY have no trouble finding candidates.

NOW, however, TODAY, the regionals are sweating bullets. They can NOT find enough pilots that either:
Have a Commercial/Inst or,
Have the Inst and are close enough to the Comm that they can get it when they finish their initial sim training.

ALL the regionals, and smaller, are having problems, and they are getting worse monthly. The majors, including DAL, UAL, NWA and USAir are all being negatively affected by the pilot shortage.

At my airline, mgmt has been slowly making the job better and better. The result? We are now experiencing the WORST hiring situation we've ever had.

It will only get WORSE!

cliff
YIP

I want that $35000 my first year :_)

Even after reading all this, I still love my job. I love the early morning flights watching the sunrise, the night flights watching the space station and the stars, the different destinations with their different people. The super nice flight attendants that work their tail of for next to nothing and still keep a smile on their face and never hesitate to make me another coffe. The friendly CP who calls me and thank me for a job well done. Then when I am all done I go home with a paycheck that feeds the whole family and ables them to live in a safe place. Yes, it has been a struggle, yes I have slept in the hangar with bearly enough money to feed myself, yes we have had some super selfish morons as leaders for the majors - but the big picture is just awesome. No pain - no gain. If it was easy everybody would do it, that might be the reason it feels so good when you get there - living the life of an airline pilot that is. Just look at the bright side every once in a while guys...

Sums it up
 

What are you willing to settle with? In my case I had suffered so long and lost so much that I almost hated flying by the time I reached a regional. Whenever I looked at an airplane I didn't see anything fun or beautiful but open ended misery, boredom and sacrifice for next to nothing in return. Additionally I was much older and had racked up so much losses that 35K just wasn't enough to overcome the financial shortfall that I had taken to get there.

I believe that if I had been able to jump into a better regional job while I was still green enough to enjoy it then perhaps I would have had a different result. In the end however I payed massive dues for a much higher return and a much better life. I can not be happy with mail man wages and it is difficult to see any fun through all the pain and longing for a better life.

I am happy for the pilots of today and wish that I had such an easy ride but your lowered expectations will assure that in the future you will be asked to lower them even more.

SkyHigh

Sad part is, that is what most of my friends were making right out of college 14 yrs ago