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Old 12-05-2007, 07:32 PM   #1  
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Default To all SWA poolies and current SWA pilots

My fellow SWA poolies and current SWA pilots. Air Transport World has an article that indicate further reduction on SWA business for 2008. I am not sure if it is an "error?" But the article indicate further reduction of from 6% to 4% or 5% next year!?

Please anyone, any solid information to back this up and what affect it will have on the people in the pool (other than further waiting), or the actual number of schedule aircraft delivery for 2008?

Thanks
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Old 12-05-2007, 07:35 PM   #2  
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I just spoke to a SWA bud tonight. Sounds like more aircraft deliveries being deferred. If you're not willing to wait it out for an undetermined amount of time in your current position, I'd keep pumping out resumes.
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Old 12-05-2007, 08:05 PM   #3  
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Seems one article said a net gain of A/C of 4-5 airframes. Original order was 32, then 16. I have no idea how many the 32 or 16 were for retiring older jets. Not a SWA expert, but reading stuff it seems there is still growth, but at about 25% of original projections. Part of this is due to attempts to reduce AC manning ratios as well.

A pool is a promise, and those can be delayed or broken. If in a pool, hope for the best...but those who decided to "wait" for the last 2-3 months instead of applying to CAL or DAL have cost themselves 60-120 numbers. Its a nasty game, but loyalty to the airline is often unrewarded even when you work there. Loyalty to a company without an ID on your neck is just silly. I'm sure the next poolie letter will be very kind, have a witty phrase or two, and explain how holding out NOW will make it better for you when you finally get your shot.

FWIW...I got a buddy in a pool at FDX and SWA. He's at Delta now...soon to be at his first choice of domicile. I think he's glad he widened his picture just a bit.
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Old 12-06-2007, 09:32 AM   #4  
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Sage advice. My concerns on SWA is that it is absolutely and 100% tied to the U.S. economy. If or when travel demand starts to slack due to the economy which is now being planned by all U.S. carriers they will have to depend on the U.S. consumer for their survival. With oil at record highs and no slackening in sight the legacies are all going international for several reasons: reduced competition, better yields through the business travelers flying in upper class cabins, the lower dollar is causing many foreigners to travel here on U.S. airlines, etc. SWA can't currently do any of that. AT and JBLU recognize that and are doing their best to overcome their weakening positions through travel to the caribbean and Canada.

I would look to cargo or DAL/CAL right now as my top choices as they are well run and diversifying their flying properly.
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Old 12-06-2007, 12:27 PM   #5  
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Someone a couple of weeks ago was boasting how SWA has all this cheap hedged fuel....what happend to all of that?
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Old 12-06-2007, 12:52 PM   #6  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by contrail67 View Post
Someone a couple of weeks ago was boasting how SWA has all this cheap hedged fuel....what happend to all of that?
CT,

I might have to follow you around the threads to counter misinformation. I am not sure who was boasting in this situation but the fact is that SWA does have a very successful hedging program and it has saved us quite a bit of money (and continues to do so). Another fact is that boasting in this industry is only temporary and as many have pointed out the position of top dog changes constantly. Where is Contrail67 in the food chain?
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Old 12-06-2007, 02:45 PM   #7  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by contrail67 View Post
Someone a couple of weeks ago was boasting how SWA has all this cheap hedged fuel....what happend to all of that?

All companies (including airlines) and government entities which use a lot of energy hedge those costs to dampen normal market flucuations. The intent of this is to facilitate mid-term planning, not make a killing on futures.

Since hedging is an inherently speculative practice, the buyer needs to have reasonable credit. Post 9/11, SWA was the only airline which had the credit rating to hedge fuel, so they did (the other airlines would have if they could have). SWA did perfectly routine hedging...at $25/bbl. When oil went to $75/bbl, they had the lower price locked in and enjoyed a tremendous advantage over their rivals for about five years.

Those $25 hedges are mostly expired at this time, and of course nobody is going to sell them any more at THAT price. I assume they are hedging at the current price, as are the rest of the airlines.

SWA's hedge windfall was due to luck and normal business practice, not management genius.
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Old 12-06-2007, 11:04 PM   #8  
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Rick, you might want to read this article:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/...dge.php?page=2

A couple of interesting points about it:

SWA's current price per barrel is $52.

Other airlines had opportunities to hedge prior to 911 but didn't. SWA did. Feel free to call it luck.

Other airlines have had chances to hedge since then and haven't. Call it luck again.

I quote from the article:

"Other airlines failed to hedge last January, with oil at about $52 a barrel, but that was also an opportunity for Southwest, said Topping, the treasurer. "In hindsight, we'd have picked more up."

I guess SWA's just really lucky...over and over again.
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