Same story we heard over here when we stopped Sydney/Brisbane service for the 2nd time.

Strangely, we still serve Cairns though

Even if it is just a straight merger, I think most of the bloodshed will be at the regional level. This would be their opportunity to significantly reduce inefficient 50 seaters and replace them with mainline aircraft. Here is an excerpt from a Wall Street Journal articel:

"Mergers also can mean bigger airplanes on some routes if a combined carrier with a larger customer base can substitute a full-size, mainline jet for a 50-seat regional jet. Some transcontinental and international flights could see larger aircraft -- wide-body jets instead of single-aisle planes -- as well.


Mr. Bethune said an analysis of a Delta-United combination forecast a 10% reduction in regional-jet service for customers of those two airlines, and about 15 jets worth of additional mainline flying."



Of course Bethune is being paid by Pardus to say good things about the opportunity. But on this subject I do somewhat agree that we may not see as much mainline loss of flying as in past mergers. Remember in past mergers there weren't as many RJs and second, they weren't as motivated to get rid of them.

I have seen you post this numerous times. Can you PLEASE post link to the above alleged quote. What has been rumored was the selling of the MOC at SFO and the FF program. I suppose that if you take that as UAL willing to sell the airline in pieces then you would agree that AMR is willing to do the same thing since they are rumored to sell the FF program and are planning on selling Eagle.

Your pieces are not routes and sections of the airlines. Here is one quote that was direct from Tilton's mouth. "During BK we had cash offer from an airline that is based in ATL for the Pacific. We are not going to break up the routes of the airline." I heard that comments about 6 months ago at a Tilton speaking event. So if he declined the offer in BK I don't think he is willing to accept that offer outside of BK.

However, anything can happen. But you are putting words in someones mouth that don't exist. Unless you can provide a link to what you are presenting as fact.

I guess merger speculation is one way to spin up the stock price ......

Lambourne: You bring up an interesting distinction. ACL65 is quoting common knowledge that I've read repeated by industry analysts. But I think you are correct, Tilton himself has not been making these sorts of quotes.

Perhaps people in the industry are assuming too much.

When an airline's management turn the operation over to McKinsey and Company folks any number of really outrageous events can happen.

I will agree that it is industry common knowledge. He cannot give a statement like that, that is quotable. IE on the record for a myriad of reasons. You know that as well as I.
There are people that are very intimate with this dialog that have echoed his statements. Nothing in print, but this is true of any real news. They cannot go on record due to a variety of laws that they would be breaking.

As with the news today. I think that we will the devil we will be sleeping with by the end of next month. I have always stated that this announcement will happen before the end of the first quarter.
Lets just hope that they do not create holding companies of the major airlines. (Ala regionals) There is language in many PWA's that prevent this, but it does not mean that they will not try.

Ok, I'll bite. Show me a report from an accredited source that says Tilton is wanting to sell the route structure in pieces. I'll accept much of anything. What you will find is reports of the sale of the FF program and the MOC. Both of which have not occurred, due to the possibility of a merger, IMO. You get more dollars for what you own versus a scaled down company.

I did read somewhere today that if DL were to make a play for NWA that AA would likely counter with an offer. If AA and DL were to get into a bidding war that might allow CAL and UAL pair up. The then loser of the NWA bidding war would be on the defensive. This might be why Bethune has termed DAL/NWA "Messy" and why he has been promoting the UAL/DAL merger. He knows that AA will not make a play for UAL due to the size and overlap. AA and CAL do not fit or benefit each other also. NWA could wind up costing DAL more than just money if they lose to AA in a bid. There will be some interesting news to say the least in the next several months

Of course everything in the world is for sale. You just have to agree on a price. Also, Tilton oversaw one of the largest mergers while in the Oil Industry, so he has experience at this game. Like Crandall at AA, I did not like him but I admired his business acumen, I think Tilton will get a good price for the company, like him or not.

Lambourne

What Tilton's game plan has been all along is to divest non core assets, i.e. the MOC and FF program and use the proceeds to clean up the balance sheet and merge with a carrier that has northeast U.S. and South American presence. There are a hand full of analysts, yes ANALYSTS, saying he should sell the pacific routes, LHR etc. No where has Tilton himself ever mentioned this. Tilton would be breaking no laws by saying he's interested in selling off the pacific or any other routes for that matter.

So which is it? "Tilton has been quoted" or "he cannot give a statement like that" Truth is, nobody is saying UAL will sell routes, not since the bankruptcy anyway. Your speculation is unfounded and pointless. UAL has been floating the idea of selling the frequent flyer program and United Services. Maybe that is where this rumor is coming from. "Industy common knowledge" my arse. More like jealous pilot wishful thinking.