georgetg

That's the official version, but looking at some data it is easy to see that the 787 will be even more delayed than Boeing admits in their newest timeline.

The A380 arguably has been the most delayed aircraft in recent memory
Airbus pretty much botched the introduction of the A380 with supply chain and wiring issues accounting for most delays

Using the Airbus pace as a benchmark it is possible to get some insight into severity of the 787 delays:

The rollout is not a good benchmark:
-Airbus had achieved A380 power-on 4 months prior to rollout
-The 787 power-on was 11 months after rollout.

Already the 787 is falling behind the A380's snail pace:
-A380 8 months from power-on to first flight
-Boeing is predicting 10-12 months from power on to first flight

Flight testing pace:
-Airbus certified the A380 after 2600 hrs of testing in 20 months, (130hrs/month)
-Boeing is predicting a 120/hrs month schedule for the 787 but their new delivery schedule would require 160/month, that 2x the flight test pace of 80-90hrs./month Boeing published just a year ago.

The A380 is a large conventional aircraft, the systems and structure are similar to existing aircraft.
The 787 has many new technologies that are without precedent for an airliner -- it is inevitable that some of these innovations will lead to certification delays.
A 6 months slip in certification would be insignificant in light of the new technologies (carbon fuselage, electric packs, thermoelectric wing deice)


I would be surprised to see the 787 entering service prior to 2012.

Don't get me wrong, the 787 WILL be a great airplane but not in the timeline published by Boeing

For ODelta pilots that means NDelta fences for the 787 will only last about a year. New 777LR deliveries will have OD fences. Any 777-300ER replacement for the 744 is fenced from OD pilots.

I'm guessing the 787-8 positions will be converted to -9 options

Cheers
George