Ual & Cal
07-01-2009 | 08:28 PM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
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From: Fero's
I think that quote was actually from the analyst that is predicting CAL's bk. I'd hope none of us has a "ploy" to paint a "dim" picture of any one else.
07-02-2009 | 06:09 AM
#33
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Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 329
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From: Capt. B737
Originally Posted by cgull
I know Continental can do nothing to avoid a default. It only has $105 million of equity left. That's simply not enough to restructure its debts. And it can't operate profitably enough to afford to repay its debts – it doesn't even have enough cash to pay for the planes it has already agreed to buy from Boeing. If you short the stock today, I'm 100% sure you will double your money in 12 to 18 months.
I know Continental can do nothing to avoid a default. It only has $105 million of equity left. That's simply not enough to restructure its debts. And it can't operate profitably enough to afford to repay its debts – it doesn't even have enough cash to pay for the planes it has already agreed to buy from Boeing. If you short the stock today, I'm 100% sure you will double your money in 12 to 18 months.
Finally, don’t believe everything written in newspapers or online. Readers should always consider the source. This week, an article was written by someone who has no standing in the airline analyst community and who convincingly demonstrated his lack of understanding of the airline industry. Be suspect.
If you want to respond and demostrate CAL's balance sheet weekness as compared to UAL's......there is ample information online, such as 10Q's...8K's...conference call trannscripts with direct quotes from CFO's...CEO's and such....all credible and under the watchful eye of the SEC.
07-02-2009 | 06:23 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,738
Likes: 5
From: Sleeping in the black swan’s nest.
Yep I read the same thing last week from some financial analyst I don't have his name. Ca Bligh, I hate to splash cold water on your hot little conspiracy theory there but I have not spoken to one single UAL pilot that wishes ill will on the CAL pilot group.
07-02-2009 | 07:22 AM
#35
Banned
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 105
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From: 757/767 FO
"Source? It adds credibility when you supply the name of the publication, author of the article, and date it was published."
It was written by Porter Stansberry at www.stansberryresearch.com in his S&A Digest on last Friday. I subscribe to a couple of his investment news letters but dont take it that I am pushing this. He was also calling for GM to go Tango Uniform 2 years ago.
It was written by Porter Stansberry at www.stansberryresearch.com in his S&A Digest on last Friday. I subscribe to a couple of his investment news letters but dont take it that I am pushing this. He was also calling for GM to go Tango Uniform 2 years ago.
07-02-2009 | 07:57 AM
#36
New Hire
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 4
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From: 73CA
Look at the $
I looked up the numbers in Yahoo Finance and found CAL rev/debt 14.6Bil/5.36Bil United $19.2B rev/$7B debt AMR $23.3B rev/$8.8B debt DAL $24.6B rev/$14.7B debt and for example Jet Blue $3.3B rev/$3.5B debt. CAL has $2.72 in revenue for every dollar of debt and DAL only has $1.67 in revenue for a dollar of debt. No one is calling for DAL to be going BK soon so I don't see it anytime soon for CAL.
07-02-2009 | 08:33 AM
#37
Banned
Joined: Jun 2009
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From: 757/767 FO
"Another UAL pilot ploy to paint a similar dim picture for CAL pilots futures..."
No. I have no hidden agendas, I don't know how to "ploy". My comments have zero effect on any outcome in the future. CAL's position speaks for itself. It is a stock pickers assessment. He is sometimes wrong but, he was calling for GM's bankruptcy 2 years ago.
"...since they haven't been able to convince ALPA national to throw out it's standing merger policy?
What does that matter? It will end up with an arbitrator anyway. How about a 20 year fence to calm your fears?
No. I have no hidden agendas, I don't know how to "ploy". My comments have zero effect on any outcome in the future. CAL's position speaks for itself. It is a stock pickers assessment. He is sometimes wrong but, he was calling for GM's bankruptcy 2 years ago.
"...since they haven't been able to convince ALPA national to throw out it's standing merger policy?
What does that matter? It will end up with an arbitrator anyway. How about a 20 year fence to calm your fears?
07-02-2009 | 09:09 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 329
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From: Capt. B737
Ah.....Stansberry and Associates. Need to be a subscriber to access the supposed article. I did find a listing of reviews for his airline investing advice. Here's a happy camper who was told to short CAL at $7.......looks like he had to cover at $10....ouch! Shorting airline stocks can be a money making ordeal, but you just have to know the business.
Actually.....it was Jerry York who was predicting a GM Bankruptcy THREE years ago. Just google Jerry York for verification.
Yawn..... anything else?
Just a quick update to my review yesterday. The latest recommendation from this newsletter (now a couple weeks old) was to short Continental Airlines when it was about $7.00 per share. It closed today at $10.26. Another big loser !
He was also calling for GM to go Tango Uniform 2 years ago.
York, who presented the study at the 2006 Detroit auto show, said GM was burning through cash so quickly that it would likely run out of cash in 1000 days, faster if economic conditions deteriorated. And so they they have.
07-02-2009 | 09:18 AM
#39
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Joined: Apr 2007
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Shhhh...no one tell Larry that we are going to BK soon. This is not a pro mgmt push here but I think Kellner and company would also see this and we would be postioning the company more in line with this mantra. They do see the books more than most. Just a thought and I hope I am right.
If I could do it over, I would be an economist/analyst. They can "forecast" so much and be wrong and still keep their job. Remember when Goldman Sachs kept forecasting oil last year? Once it started dropping, they said they would no longer make predictions. Now they are back in the biz of oil price predictions with oil stable.
His assertions also would mean that most of the majors, who use the same busines model, are all going under by 2010 if things don't change.
If I could do it over, I would be an economist/analyst. They can "forecast" so much and be wrong and still keep their job. Remember when Goldman Sachs kept forecasting oil last year? Once it started dropping, they said they would no longer make predictions. Now they are back in the biz of oil price predictions with oil stable.
His assertions also would mean that most of the majors, who use the same busines model, are all going under by 2010 if things don't change.
07-02-2009 | 09:43 AM
#40
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 89
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From: Boeing
Nothing would surprise me in the airline business at this point. With the exception of a few majors (ALK, LUV) and several regionals, these airlines are all so debt laden and pathetically managed anything is possible, CAL included.
Seems like the true measure of staying alive is the ablilty to kick the can down the road, continue to renegotiate debt and hope your competitors are unable.
Seems like the true measure of staying alive is the ablilty to kick the can down the road, continue to renegotiate debt and hope your competitors are unable.
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